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], "host": 13, "winner": 14 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 2, 16 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 2 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 4, 15 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 4 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 5, 14 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 5 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 6, 12 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 6 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 7, 10 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 7 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 8, 9 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 9 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 1, 9 ], "host": 1, "winner": 9 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 4, 5 ], "host": 4, "winner": 5 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 2, 7 ], "host": 2, "winner": 2 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 3, 6 ], "host": 3, "winner": 6 }, { "round": 4, "date": "2025-01-11", "pair": [ 9, 5 ], "host": 5, "winner": 5 }, { "round": 4, "date": "2025-01-11", "pair": [ 2, 6 ], "host": 2, "winner": 2 }, { "round": 5, "date": "2025-01-18", "pair": [ 5, 2 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 2 } ], "single": [ { "round": 1, "date": "2024-12-14", "pair": [ 14, 18 ], "host": 14, "winner": 18 }, { "round": 1, "date": "2024-12-14", "pair": [ 15, 17 ], "host": 15, "winner": 15 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 1, 18 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 1 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 2, 16 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 2 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 3, 15 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 3 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 4, 13 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 4 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 5, 12 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 5 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 6, 11 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 11 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 7, 10 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 10 }, { "round": 2, "date": "2024-12-21", "pair": [ 8, 9 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 8 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 1, 11 ], "host": 1, "winner": 11 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 4, 5 ], "host": 4, "winner": 5 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 2, 10 ], "host": 2, "winner": 2 }, { "round": 3, "date": "2025-01-01", "pair": [ 3, 8 ], "host": 3, "winner": 3 }, { "round": 4, "date": "2025-01-11", "pair": [ 11, 5 ], "host": 5, "winner": 5 }, { "round": 4, "date": "2025-01-11", "pair": [ 2, 3 ], "host": 2, "winner": 3 }, { "round": 5, "date": "2025-01-18", "pair": [ 5, 3 ], "host": "neutral", "winner": 3 } ] }, "checks": { "settings": 18, "runsPerSettingPerFormat": 20000, "simulatedBrackets": 720000, "gamesPerBracket": 17, "redrawsPerBracket": 2, "analyticEqualNeutralCheck": "passed within five Monte Carlo standard errors", "baselineProtectedDoubleBye": [ 1, 3 ], "championOpeningExemptions": "all five in both formats", "noGameWindow": "December23–29", "maximumSeasonGames": 18 }, "limits": [ "Synthetic strength units and probability parameters are not empirically calibrated; named teams identify the historical field, not predicted performance.", "Rest and home parameters are assumptions, not measured causal effects or medical advice.", "Trip counts assume return to campus after each away or neutral game; distances, shared itineraries and prices are not modeled.", "The single-bye alternative explicitly removes protected double byes and requires eight rather than six round-two neutral slots. It is not adopted.", "Paired simulation draws use the same round/game-slot rolls; the formats have different matchups. Monte Carlo uncertainty is separate from model uncertainty." ] }