{
  "version": 1,
  "frozenOn": "2026-10-15",
  "state": "protocol_no_effect_estimate",
  "target": "Within-team late regular-season demand response to pregame seeding stakes, conditional on qualification stakes",
  "primaryOutcome": "Reported attendance, only after definition and historical capacity verified; descriptive primary unless identification improves",
  "secondaryOutcome": "Comparable national average viewers with network, platform, measurement definition and time slot; no audience rows collected",
  "separateOutcomes": [
    "scanned attendance if permission obtained",
    "ticket prices with timestamp/fees and listing-versus-sale distinction",
    "relative search attention, never spending"
  ],
  "stakesDefinition": {
    "qualification": "P(qualification | focal win, information frozen before kickoff) minus P(qualification | focal loss, same information and paired remaining-season draws)",
    "singleBye": "P(singleBye | focal win, information frozen before kickoff) minus P(singleBye | focal loss, same information and paired remaining-season draws)",
    "doubleBye": "P(doubleBye | focal win, information frozen before kickoff) minus P(doubleBye | focal loss, same information and paired remaining-season draws)",
    "hostAtLeastOne": "P(hostAtLeastOne | focal win, information frozen before kickoff) minus P(hostAtLeastOne | focal loss, same information and paired remaining-season draws)"
  },
  "asOfRequirements": [
    "archived schedule, ratings and rules as available before kickoff",
    "probability calibration on past-only data",
    "no final rank, postgame probability or season-ending model treated as pregame",
    "fixed model and input hashes before outcome merge",
    "document information cutoff for other games; changes can be confounded by network, news and common shocks"
  ],
  "samplePlan": {
    "primary": "FBS late regular-season home games in2024 and2025, final four scheduled regular-season weeks; exclude neutral games and conference titles; require complete frame and verified inputs",
    "conditionalInterest": "Estimate qualification and seeding stakes jointly; treat qualification probability continuously. Near-lock subset probability>=0.95 is a declared sensitivity, not proof of mathematical clinching.",
    "controls": [
      "team-season fixed effects",
      "pregame strength and opponent strength",
      "record and recent past-only form",
      "rivalry",
      "network/platform and kickoff slot",
      "competing broadcasts",
      "weather and exam/break dates when sourced"
    ],
    "capacitySensitivity": [
      "raw attendance and verified fill ratio",
      "exclude documented sellouts",
      "compare historically non-sellout programs",
      "flag above-capacity counts; never clip silently"
    ],
    "checks": [
      "settled-seeding placebo with zero modeled stakes",
      "pre-outcome input audits",
      "overlap and collinearity of qualification and bye stakes",
      "alternative reasonable probability calibrations",
      "team-clustered inference with enough independent teams; predeclare multiplicity handling"
    ],
    "identification": "Observational association unless a defensible externally driven stakes change design survives explicit exclusion checks; outside results alone are not automatically random",
    "nflBenchmark": "Separate protocol and source coverage needed; do not pool NFL and college coefficients or treat league transfer as established"
  },
  "goGate": [
    "complete classified sample frame",
    "documented source access/reuse",
    "verified event capacity and outcome meaning",
    "archived past-only ratings/schedule/rule provenance",
    "calibrated model that can distinguish four stakes outcomes",
    "sufficient variation and quality of match/control coverage"
  ],
  "currentDecision": "NO_GO: zero rows currently satisfy all gates",
  "nextDeliverable": "Complete classified frame and archived-pregame intake; estimate only after gate passes"
}