{ "schemaVersion": 1, "scope": "Frozen 2024–25 Selection Sunday component substitution; no published ranking or formula changes.", "method": "At each fraction, blend only archived current and Beta performance. Keep the five other scored components, record foundation, opponent values, and head-to-head credit frozen. Rank every FBS team with the published NRR formula. This is not a rerun of the schedule-deduction factor and does not validate either component against future outcomes.", "caution": "Official CFP overlap is descriptive, not ground truth or an optimization target. Rank movement is especially sensitive where Index values are tightly packed. A formula change requires full dependency reruns and prospective validation.", "seasons": [ { "season": 2024, "teams": 134, "currentPerformanceZeroes": 27, "zeroesWithScheduleStrengthBelow45": 27, "meanBetaPerformanceForCurrentZeroes": 41.085, "scheduleQuartiles": [ { "quartile": 1, "teams": 33, "meanScheduleStrength": 38.545, "meanCurrentPerformance": 2.623, "meanBetaPerformance": 49.352, "meanPerformanceChange": 46.729, "meanIndexChange": 2.653, "meanAbsoluteRankChange": 7.848 }, { "quartile": 2, "teams": 34, "meanScheduleStrength": 44.476, "meanCurrentPerformance": 27.253, "meanBetaPerformance": 49.486, "meanPerformanceChange": 22.233, "meanIndexChange": 1.313, "meanAbsoluteRankChange": 5.941 }, { "quartile": 3, "teams": 33, "meanScheduleStrength": 50.794, "meanCurrentPerformance": 57.556, "meanBetaPerformance": 65.069, "meanPerformanceChange": 7.513, "meanIndexChange": 0.667, "meanAbsoluteRankChange": 3.848 }, { "quartile": 4, "teams": 34, "meanScheduleStrength": 56.426, "meanCurrentPerformance": 58.252, "meanBetaPerformance": 66.299, "meanPerformanceChange": 8.047, "meanIndexChange": 0.674, "meanAbsoluteRankChange": 3 } ], "scenarios": [ { "fraction": 0, "top25OverlapWithCurrent": 25, "top25OverlapWithOfficial": 22, "changedRanks": 0, "meanAbsoluteRankChange": 0, "maximumAbsoluteRankChange": 0, "rows": [ { "team": "Oregon", "rank": 1, "index": 96.355, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Georgia", "rank": 2, "index": 80.032, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Texas", "rank": 3, "index": 77.887, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Notre Dame", "rank": 4, "index": 74.842, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Ohio State", "rank": 5, "index": 73.077, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Penn State", "rank": 6, "index": 72.886, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Indiana", "rank": 7, "index": 69.76, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Arizona State", "rank": 8, "index": 68.472, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Boise State", "rank": 9, "index": 67.313, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Tennessee", "rank": 10, "index": 67.088, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "SMU", "rank": 11, "index": 66.569, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "South Carolina", "rank": 12, "index": 65.733, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Alabama", "rank": 13, "index": 65.075, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "BYU", "rank": 14, "index": 64.781, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Ole Miss", "rank": 15, "index": 62.302, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Clemson", "rank": 16, "index": 62.265, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Miami", "rank": 17, "index": 61.886, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "LSU", "rank": 18, "index": 58.994, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Iowa State", "rank": 19, "index": 57.282, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Army", "rank": 20, "index": 57.135, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Texas A&M", "rank": 21, "index": 56.5, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Missouri", "rank": 22, "index": 56.341, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Syracuse", "rank": 23, "index": 54.003, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Louisville", "rank": 24, "index": 53.96, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Colorado", "rank": 25, "index": 51.875, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Florida", "rank": 26, "index": 51.551, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Illinois", "rank": 27, "index": 50.709, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Michigan", "rank": 28, "index": 50.602, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Kansas State", "rank": 29, "index": 49.706, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Texas Tech", "rank": 30, "index": 48.631, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "UNLV", "rank": 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"rank": 65, "index": 31.743, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Stanford", "rank": 66, "index": 31.28, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Wisconsin", "rank": 67, "index": 31.04, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "California", "rank": 68, "index": 30.634, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Maryland", "rank": 69, "index": 30.489, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Miami (OH)", "rank": 70, "index": 30.114, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Michigan State", "rank": 71, "index": 30.041, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "North Carolina", "rank": 72, "index": 30.032, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Washington State", "rank": 73, "index": 30.009, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "UCF", "rank": 74, "index": 29.956, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Arizona", "rank": 75, "index": 29.866, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Sam Houston", "rank": 76, "index": 29.171, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Northwestern", "rank": 77, "index": 28.484, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Colorado State", "rank": 78, "index": 28.461, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Old Dominion", "rank": 79, "index": 28.359, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Oklahoma State", "rank": 80, "index": 28.146, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Oregon State", "rank": 81, "index": 28.139, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Mississippi State", "rank": 82, "index": 28.082, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Wake Forest", "rank": 83, "index": 28.064, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Appalachian State", "rank": 84, "index": 27.962, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "rank": 85, "index": 27.88, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Jacksonville State", "rank": 86, "index": 27.816, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Bowling Green", "rank": 87, "index": 27.761, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Rice", "rank": 88, "index": 27.563, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "James Madison", "rank": 89, "index": 27.556, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "UConn", "rank": 90, "index": 27.524, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Texas State", "rank": 91, "index": 27.511, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "UTSA", "rank": 92, "index": 27.361, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Toledo", "rank": 93, "index": 27.347, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "San Jose State", "rank": 94, "index": 27.247, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Buffalo", "rank": 95, "index": 27.242, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Florida State", "rank": 96, "index": 27.155, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "South Florida", "rank": 97, "index": 27.022, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "South 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"Arkansas State", "rank": 109, "index": 26.136, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Hawaii", "rank": 110, "index": 26.053, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Akron", "rank": 111, "index": 25.984, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Purdue", "rank": 112, "index": 25.955, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Western Michigan", "rank": 113, "index": 25.829, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Air Force", "rank": 114, "index": 25.744, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Wyoming", "rank": 115, "index": 25.718, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Utah State", "rank": 116, "index": 25.557, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Temple", "rank": 117, "index": 25.366, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "New Mexico", "rank": 118, "index": 25.305, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "UMass", "rank": 119, "index": 25.171, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0 }, { "team": "Troy", "rank": 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"rank": 49, "index": 38.285, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.083 }, { "team": "Rutgers", "rank": 50, "index": 37.612, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": -0.142 }, { "team": "Pittsburgh", "rank": 51, "index": 37.29, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.243 }, { "team": "Kentucky", "rank": 52, "index": 37.01, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.119 }, { "team": "Navy", "rank": 53, "index": 36.774, "rankChange": 3, "indexChange": 0.625 }, { "team": "Auburn", "rank": 54, "index": 36.653, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": 0.405 }, { "team": "UCLA", "rank": 55, "index": 36.414, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": 0.169 }, { "team": "Louisiana", "rank": 56, "index": 36.392, "rankChange": 2, "indexChange": 1.395 }, { "team": "Cincinnati", "rank": 57, "index": 36.282, "rankChange": -2, "indexChange": 0.121 }, { "team": "Georgia Southern", "rank": 58, "index": 35.92, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": -0.018 }, { "team": "Ohio", "rank": 59, "index": 34.131, "rankChange": 2, "indexChange": 1.237 }, { "team": "Houston", "rank": 60, "index": 33.62, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.121 }, { "team": "Nebraska", "rank": 61, "index": 33.58, "rankChange": -2, "indexChange": 0.014 }, { "team": "Northern Illinois", "rank": 62, "index": 32.956, "rankChange": 2, "indexChange": 0.686 }, { "team": "NC State", "rank": 63, "index": 32.576, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": 0.098 }, { "team": "Virginia", "rank": 64, "index": 32.386, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": 0.078 }, { "team": "Utah", "rank": 65, "index": 31.837, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.094 }, { "team": "Wisconsin", "rank": 66, "index": 31.216, "rankChange": 1, "indexChange": 0.176 }, { "team": "Stanford", "rank": 67, "index": 31.182, "rankChange": -1, "indexChange": -0.098 }, { "team": "California", "rank": 68, "index": 30.805, "rankChange": 0, "indexChange": 0.171 }, { "team": "Miami (OH)", "rank": 69, "index": 30.683, "rankChange": 1, "indexChange": 0.569 }, { "team": "Washington State", "rank": 70, "index": 30.623, "rankChange": 3, 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