{ "schemaVersion": 1, "scope": "Frozen 2024–25 Selection Sunday performance-score cap sensitivity; published NRR is unchanged.", "method": "For each team, bound the archived Beta-minus-current performance-score difference to ±10, ±20, or ±30 component points; keep every other archived input fixed and rerank all FBS teams. Zero is the published baseline; uncapped reproduces the archived Beta trial.", "limitation": "These are post-score caps, not schedule-deduction-factor reruns. Historical raw game inputs are absent from this source checkout, so this test cannot show how a factor change would propagate through opponent values or other components. Rank stability does not establish predictive accuracy.", "seasons": [ { "season": 2024, "teams": 134, "currentSnapshotSha256": "59dd25344c34d8914f0bcadd7132d31d63b13df212a06f1317f64788b88aa9f4", "betaSnapshotSha256": "940bc9bffbe3602ccbe9028b01705ece68605f8d7cf8fc188a8d1c514d76513d", "scenarios": [ { "cap": 0, "top25OverlapWithCurrent": 25, "changedRanks": 0, "maximumAbsoluteRankChange": 0, "flooredTeamsStillZero": 27, "meanPerformanceForPreviouslyFloored": 0, "scheduleQuartileMeanPerformanceChange": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "rows": [ { "team": "Oregon", "rank": 1, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 76.253727 }, { "team": "Georgia", "rank": 2, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 69.751171 }, { "team": "Texas", "rank": 3, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 81.553049 }, { "team": "Notre Dame", "rank": 4, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 84.192534 }, { "team": "Ohio State", "rank": 5, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 76.493875 }, { "team": "Penn State", "rank": 6, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 76.68875 }, { "team": "Indiana", "rank": 7, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 63.751859 }, { "team": "Arizona State", "rank": 8, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 66.686149 }, { "team": "Boise State", "rank": 9, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 60.979419 }, { "team": "Tennessee", "rank": 10, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 74.919024 }, { "team": "SMU", "rank": 11, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 71.657436 }, { "team": "South Carolina", "rank": 12, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 70.493358 }, { "team": "Alabama", "rank": 13, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 70.721763 }, { "team": "BYU", "rank": 14, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 62.927279 }, { "team": "Ole Miss", "rank": 15, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 75.982649 }, { "team": "Clemson", "rank": 16, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 69.851943 }, { "team": "Miami", "rank": 17, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 73.522774 }, { "team": "LSU", "rank": 18, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 64.087496 }, { "team": "Iowa State", "rank": 19, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 62.219647 }, { "team": "Army", "rank": 20, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 29.018747 }, { "team": "Texas A&M", "rank": 21, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 69.032392 }, { "team": "Missouri", "rank": 22, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 63.283263 }, { "team": "Syracuse", "rank": 23, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 58.51129 }, { "team": "Louisville", "rank": 24, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 69.261723 }, { "team": "Colorado", "rank": 25, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 65.225369 }, { "team": "Florida", "rank": 26, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 58.4162 }, { "team": "Illinois", "rank": 27, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 54.315793 }, { "team": "Michigan", "rank": 28, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 53.677313 }, { "team": "Kansas State", "rank": 29, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 68.414178 }, { "team": "Texas Tech", "rank": 30, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 55.704967 }, { "team": "UNLV", "rank": 31, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 62.889584 }, { "team": "Georgia Tech", "rank": 32, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 65.629382 }, { "team": "Duke", "rank": 33, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 55.95736 }, { "team": "Oklahoma", "rank": 34, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 62.260197 }, { "team": "Baylor", "rank": 35, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 58.593521 }, { "team": "TCU", "rank": 36, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 57.006065 }, { "team": "Iowa", "rank": 37, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 56.767942 }, { "team": "Southern California", "rank": 38, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 64.228256 }, { "team": "Arkansas", "rank": 39, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 59.591334 }, { "team": "Vanderbilt", "rank": 40, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 52.996397 }, { "team": "Minnesota", "rank": 41, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 61.290503 }, { "team": "Kansas", "rank": 42, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 63.259205 }, { "team": "Memphis", "rank": 43, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 8.578614 }, { "team": "Washington", "rank": 44, "rankChange": 0, "performance": 60.081383 }, 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