{ "schemaVersion": 1, "status": "historical_replay_not_promotion", "rankingContribution": 0, "cutoff": "2026-10-11T03:59:59.999Z", "policy": { "minimumTrainingObservations": 100, "target": "offensive yards/play differential", "sameDayExcluded": true }, "candidatePolicy": { "id": "connected-reference-v1", "effectPriorGames": 4, "referencePriorGames": 2, "teamPriorGames": 2, "rawGameBound": 3, "tolerance": 1e-9, "maximumIterations": 500 }, "candidateSha256": "4f3229d32a13620ac777d22366b9aecc65cfd80e3fd4ae826ec46d044d6118ba", "generatorSha256": "ec96a84e3b7eda51791ce071771c40b35646729ca083c70c6299c685029dd7fb", "sourceGames": 448, "skippedGames": 95, "testedGames": 353, "overall": { "neutral": { "games": 353, "mae": 2.135849701877893, "rmse": 2.7309745625698585 }, "simple": { "games": 353, "mae": 2.0679357155039297, "rmse": 2.660138245284441 }, "connected": { "games": 353, "mae": 1.9933540032100532, "rmse": 2.560964335872971 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 353, "mae": 2.0390885961757226, "rmse": 2.629498885474724 } }, "byCoverage": [ { "label": "No prior connection", "neutral": { "games": 53, "mae": 3.7814514016932725, "rmse": 4.327996607898447 }, "simple": { "games": 53, "mae": 3.9257413225702766, "rmse": 4.3951764425219615 }, "connected": { "games": 53, "mae": 3.7468240509629536, "rmse": 4.236241177578177 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 53, "mae": 3.7814514016932725, "rmse": 4.327996607898447 } }, { "label": "1–2 prior games", "neutral": { "games": 131, "mae": 2.000489641785162, "rmse": 2.542067111436635 }, "simple": { "games": 131, "mae": 1.9000820970626338, "rmse": 2.4462716101465762 }, "connected": { "games": 131, "mae": 1.8438326771089324, "rmse": 2.3173554242394876 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 131, "mae": 1.9103531089821948, "rmse": 2.4200558906123697 } }, { "label": "3–4 prior games", "neutral": { "games": 135, "mae": 1.7150382673918274, "rmse": 2.159023883829019 }, "simple": { "games": 135, "mae": 1.6490822666083822, "rmse": 2.0586346855444835 }, "connected": { "games": 135, "mae": 1.586598634318225, "rmse": 2.012494197510533 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 135, "mae": 1.6113503157558497, "rmse": 2.033266879584154 } }, { "label": "5+ prior games", "neutral": { "games": 34, "mae": 1.7630503323941245, "rmse": 2.1973068616844946 }, "simple": { "games": 34, "mae": 1.4817693167448862, "rmse": 1.8633616728612676 }, "connected": { "games": 34, "mae": 1.4511585911141542, "rmse": 1.829368812695563 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 34, "mae": 1.517435301664091, "rmse": 1.899114179122556 } } ], "byDate": [ { "date": "2026-09-06", "neutral": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.2274790696017794, "rmse": 1.3443689558915601 }, "simple": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.2274790696017794, "rmse": 1.3443689558915601 }, "connected": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.2274790696017794, "rmse": 1.3443689558915601 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.2274790696017794, "rmse": 1.3443689558915601 } }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "neutral": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.966637401229149, "rmse": 3.966637401229149 }, "simple": { "games": 1, "mae": 4.724213158804907, "rmse": 4.724213158804907 }, "connected": { "games": 1, "mae": 4.353145376012745, "rmse": 4.353145376012745 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.966637401229149, "rmse": 3.966637401229149 } }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "neutral": { "games": 1, "mae": 9.449431652579424, "rmse": 9.449431652579424 }, "simple": { "games": 1, "mae": 7.6524167272062895, "rmse": 7.6524167272062895 }, "connected": { "games": 1, "mae": 8.780466842410421, "rmse": 8.780466842410421 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 1, "mae": 9.449431652579424, "rmse": 9.449431652579424 } }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "neutral": { "games": 5, "mae": 4.352295745221447, "rmse": 5.030992359653397 }, "simple": { "games": 5, "mae": 4.202355364229552, "rmse": 5.289217934395635 }, "connected": { "games": 5, "mae": 4.3023156182241475, "rmse": 5.079307999117465 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 5, "mae": 4.311871667360274, "rmse": 4.99847642522837 } }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "neutral": { "games": 80, "mae": 2.4432254460581877, "rmse": 3.0155116145024894 }, "simple": { "games": 80, "mae": 2.762375631116216, "rmse": 3.384211014135146 }, "connected": { "games": 80, "mae": 2.4849083684114817, "rmse": 3.0015160610032243 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 80, "mae": 2.437106904031333, "rmse": 2.989482691102491 } }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "neutral": { "games": 1, "mae": 1.1761904761904765, "rmse": 1.1761904761904765 }, "simple": { "games": 1, "mae": 1.3496779351097832, "rmse": 1.3496779351097832 }, "connected": { "games": 1, "mae": 0.9247663218323482, "rmse": 0.9247663218323482 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 1, "mae": 1.0504783990114124, "rmse": 1.0504783990114124 } }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "neutral": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.029337964473416, "rmse": 2.908792318646281 }, "simple": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.789309152650739, "rmse": 2.869676813630671 }, "connected": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.507778104296809, "rmse": 2.8910467490073826 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.2384148968356206, "rmse": 2.9037776624543703 } }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "neutral": { "games": 71, "mae": 2.172639152502459, "rmse": 2.7514348607842183 }, "simple": { "games": 71, "mae": 1.8357300847373206, "rmse": 2.2848189183031304 }, "connected": { "games": 71, "mae": 1.8684895028995447, "rmse": 2.3878457394761994 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 71, "mae": 2.0127672972919686, "rmse": 2.5896359991666955 } }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "neutral": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.2741702741702747, "rmse": 3.2741702741702747 }, "simple": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.384051290854484, "rmse": 3.384051290854484 }, "connected": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.4848462463185665, "rmse": 3.4848462463185665 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 1, "mae": 3.4005758574592497, "rmse": 3.4005758574592497 } }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "neutral": { "games": 5, "mae": 2.0161407651316443, "rmse": 2.4586683873509174 }, "simple": { "games": 5, "mae": 1.7333903119950917, "rmse": 2.553411927850341 }, "connected": { "games": 5, "mae": 1.7823160359641477, "rmse": 2.3764809869838768 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 5, "mae": 1.934819120578257, "rmse": 2.4371431682937943 } }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "neutral": { "games": 65, "mae": 2.2000948596823786, "rmse": 2.82143462001405 }, "simple": { "games": 65, "mae": 2.095021967202229, "rmse": 2.677833045837779 }, "connected": { "games": 65, "mae": 2.054893550529852, "rmse": 2.640303489480134 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 65, "mae": 2.118078857269681, "rmse": 2.7315768229147888 } }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "neutral": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.7026061776061776, "rmse": 1.7899004841201613 }, "simple": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.1310120806347128, "rmse": 1.483544464327517 }, "connected": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.211589927530611, "rmse": 1.4802732332519006 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.3752620108891331, "rmse": 1.5669622417708842 } }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "neutral": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.6092418225867586, "rmse": 1.9475216111640599 }, "simple": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.2641760151350536, "rmse": 2.5547157981295037 }, "connected": { "games": 3, "mae": 2.2349764970564543, "rmse": 2.54862335943605 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 3, "mae": 1.9883669029866067, "rmse": 2.324293281437358 } }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "neutral": { "games": 54, "mae": 1.855624690413205, "rmse": 2.298522187381122 }, "simple": { "games": 54, "mae": 1.7195436475892902, "rmse": 2.109990113531566 }, "connected": { "games": 54, "mae": 1.6935021819789948, "rmse": 2.112480493585441 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 54, "mae": 1.7365917326701923, "rmse": 2.1653078045240886 } }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "neutral": { "games": 1, "mae": 0.5174242424242426, "rmse": 0.5174242424242426 }, "simple": { "games": 1, "mae": 0.37396365004474946, "rmse": 0.37396365004474946 }, "connected": { "games": 1, "mae": 0.318977395444036, "rmse": 0.318977395444036 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 1, "mae": 0.3851263444374382, "rmse": 0.3851263444374382 } }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "neutral": { "games": 2, "mae": 0.8685867565177909, "rmse": 0.9001829038388164 }, "simple": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.531696536798139, "rmse": 1.560707758761944 }, "connected": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.4677807061936765, "rmse": 1.5128771516651385 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 2, "mae": 1.268049389635048, "rmse": 1.3085949538546207 } }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "neutral": { "games": 4, "mae": 1.9195574525873063, "rmse": 2.1750223547456486 }, "simple": { "games": 4, "mae": 1.9050146548167004, "rmse": 2.1165207822521315 }, "connected": { "games": 4, "mae": 1.6811528995426457, "rmse": 1.9444221608584138 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 4, "mae": 1.7511364237631026, "rmse": 2.0110182091981836 } }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "neutral": { "games": 5, "mae": 2.8323131795716927, "rmse": 3.4460608294803468 }, "simple": { "games": 5, "mae": 2.476884018689696, "rmse": 3.112299933597832 }, "connected": { "games": 5, "mae": 2.42816181720509, "rmse": 3.085694433280667 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 5, "mae": 2.546744522318445, "rmse": 3.1951719146793467 } }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "neutral": { "games": 46, "mae": 1.5048529422630181, "rmse": 1.8788068018411594 }, "simple": { "games": 46, "mae": 1.26710427013884, "rmse": 1.563540971755193 }, "connected": { "games": 46, "mae": 1.2339373244692802, "rmse": 1.52831530363224 }, "sparseWeighted": { "games": 46, "mae": 1.2956258135369423, "rmse": 1.591461693655906 } } ], "sparseTeams": [ { "team": "Buffalo", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 2 }, { "team": "UMass", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 2 }, { "team": "Arizona", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Arizona State", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Arkansas", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Army", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Ball State", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Baylor", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Boise State", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Bowling Green", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "BYU", "record": "5-0", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Central Michigan", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Charlotte", "record": "0-6", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Cincinnati", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Colorado", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Colorado State", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Delaware", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Duke", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "East Carolina", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Florida", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Florida State", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Georgia", "record": "6-0", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Georgia Southern", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Georgia State", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Georgia Tech", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Houston", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Illinois", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Iowa", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Iowa State", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Jacksonville State", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Kent State", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Kentucky", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Louisiana", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Louisiana Tech", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Louisville", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "LSU", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Maryland", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Miami", "record": "5-0", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Miami (OH)", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Minnesota", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Missouri", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "NC State", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Nebraska", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Nevada", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "North Carolina", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Northern Illinois", "record": "0-5", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Northwestern", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Oregon State", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Pittsburgh", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Purdue", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Sacramento State", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "San Jose State", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "SMU", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "South Florida", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Southern Miss", "record": "1-4", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Syracuse", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "TCU", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Temple", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Tennessee", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Texas State", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Texas Tech", "record": "5-0", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Toledo", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Troy", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Tulsa", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "UAB", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "UCF", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "UConn", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Utah", "record": "5-0", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Utah State", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "UTSA", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Vanderbilt", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Virginia Tech", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Washington", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Western Michigan", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Wisconsin", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Wyoming", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 1, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Air Force", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Akron", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Appalachian State", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Arkansas State", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Boston College", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "California", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Coastal Carolina", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Eastern Michigan", "record": "4-3", "games": 7, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "FIU", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Florida Atlantic", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Indiana", "record": "6-0", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "James Madison", "record": "6-0", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Kansas", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Kansas State", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Kennesaw State", "record": "1-4", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Liberty", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "record": "0-5", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Marshall", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Memphis", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Middle Tennessee", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Missouri State", "record": "1-4", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Navy", "record": "2-3", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "New Mexico", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "New Mexico State", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "North Dakota State", "record": "5-1", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "North Texas", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Ohio", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Oklahoma State", "record": "4-1", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Old Dominion", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Oregon", "record": "3-2", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Rice", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Rutgers", "record": "1-4", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Sam Houston", "record": "1-4", "games": 5, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "San Diego State", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "South Alabama", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "South Carolina", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "UTEP", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Virginia", "record": "4-2", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Washington State", "record": "1-5", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "West Virginia", "record": "3-3", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 }, { "team": "Western Kentucky", "record": "2-4", "games": 6, "priorOnly": 0, "lowReference": 1 } ], "traces": [ { "gameId": "401856661", "date": "2026-09-06", "team": "Louisville", "opponent": "Ole Miss", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-05", "trainingObservations": 190, "teamReferences": 0, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 0.6406485671191557, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0, "connected": 0, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858438", "date": "2026-09-06", "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Wisconsin", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-05", "trainingObservations": 190, "teamReferences": 0, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.081967213114754, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0, "connected": 0, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858437", "date": "2026-09-06", "team": "Washington", "opponent": "Washington State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-05", "trainingObservations": 190, "teamReferences": 0, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.9598214285714288, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0, "connected": 0, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858212", "date": "2026-09-07", "team": "Florida State", "opponent": "SMU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-06", "trainingObservations": 196, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": -3.966637401229149, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7575757575757578, "connected": 0.38650797478359583, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858213", "date": "2026-09-10", "team": "Miami", "opponent": "Florida A&M", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-07", "trainingObservations": 198, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 9.449431652579424, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.7970149253731345, "connected": 0.6689648101690031, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858214", "date": "2026-09-11", "team": "Boston College", "opponent": "Rutgers", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-10", "trainingObservations": 200, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.9431051108968171, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.28360762674708306, "connected": 0.09453587558235832, "sparseWeighted": 0.03151195852745277 } }, { "gameId": "401856678", "date": "2026-09-11", "team": "Kansas", "opponent": "Missouri", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-10", "trainingObservations": 200, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.7996636535631696, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.9208966720138518, "connected": 0.30696555733795633, "sparseWeighted": 0.10232185244598543 } }, { "gameId": "401858215", "date": "2026-09-11", "team": "Louisville", "opponent": "Villanova", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-10", "trainingObservations": 200, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.540566959921798, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.32032428355957787, "connected": 0.10677476118653857, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858222", "date": "2026-09-11", "team": "NC State", "opponent": "Richmond", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-10", "trainingObservations": 200, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 8.392783200236616, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3897058823529411, "connected": -0.4632352941176663, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858220", "date": "2026-09-11", "team": "Virginia", "opponent": "Norfolk State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-10", "trainingObservations": 200, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.085359801488835, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.4563725490196076, "connected": 0.8187908496732192, "sparseWeighted": 0.2729302832244064 } }, { "gameId": "401864502", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Air Force", "opponent": "North Dakota State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.3848484848484848, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.38735105500235534, "connected": -0.2663806665516433, "sparseWeighted": -0.08879355551721442 } }, { "gameId": "401866412", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "Robert Morris", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.3047052154195016, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.900149190110827, "connected": -0.6333830633702815, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856674", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "Kentucky", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.1788194444444446, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.8063718395918849, "connected": -0.2687906131973162, "sparseWeighted": -0.08959687106577205 } }, { "gameId": "401864571", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Appalachian State", "opponent": "East Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.30555555555555625, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.440285305630834, "connected": 1.1467617685436522, "sparseWeighted": 0.38225392284788406 } }, { "gameId": "401856810", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "BYU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.2436635944700463, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4326833297421535, "connected": -0.14422777658072078, "sparseWeighted": -0.048075925526906926 } }, { "gameId": "401856683", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Arizona State", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.6071428571428568, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7443190656544307, "connected": 0.24810635521817923, "sparseWeighted": 0.08270211840605973 } }, { "gameId": "401856670", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Arkansas", "opponent": "Utah", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -3.1158743633276735, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.6441359733163006, "connected": -0.5480453244387979, "sparseWeighted": -0.18268177481293263 } }, { "gameId": "401868241", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Arkansas State", "opponent": "West Georgia", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.6182698124621897, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.1869400616492671, "connected": 0.43310264792398134, "sparseWeighted": 0.14436754930799378 } }, { "gameId": "401862702", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Army", "opponent": "South Florida", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.112316715542522, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.7548247978436664, "connected": 1.2516082659479337, "sparseWeighted": 0.4172027553159779 } }, { "gameId": "401856671", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Auburn", "opponent": "Southern Miss", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 3.4014198782961462, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9525387397438216, "connected": -0.3175129132479513, "sparseWeighted": -0.10583763774931709 } }, { "gameId": "401866413", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Ball State", "opponent": "Stony Brook", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.9319852941176467, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.2847222222222223, "connected": -1.094907407407426, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856784", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Baylor", "opponent": "Prairie View A&M", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 4.456043956043956, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3571903242955874, "connected": -0.11906344143187385, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860881", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Memphis", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.274102564102563, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.3591363754365258, "connected": -0.9571396988381119, "sparseWeighted": -0.3190465662793706 } }, { "gameId": "401858441", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "Nebraska", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -4.7518939393939394, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.5418467080289546, "connected": -0.8472822360096595, "sparseWeighted": -0.2824274120032198 } }, { "gameId": "401866414", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Buffalo", "opponent": "FIU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.529505582137161, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.47452380952380957, "connected": -0.1581746031746103, "sparseWeighted": -0.052724867724870096 } }, { "gameId": "401858216", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "California", "opponent": "Syracuse", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.8729885057471263, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.882068474309853, "connected": -1.2940228247699572, "sparseWeighted": -0.4313409415899857 } }, { "gameId": "401866415", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Central Michigan", "opponent": "Colgate", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 0.8486943164362524, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.0855978260869568, "connected": -0.361865942029008, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856676", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Charlotte", "opponent": "Ole Miss", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.9626907857546634, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7808562440915385, "connected": 0.10503420901904721, "sparseWeighted": 0.03501140300634907 } }, { "gameId": "401856786", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Cincinnati", "opponent": "Western Carolina", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 4.396929824561403, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.12115427801482159, "connected": 0.06534267802492992, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858219", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Clemson", "opponent": "Georgia Southern", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.6588861588861592, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -4.271284079395781, "connected": -1.4237613597986167, "sparseWeighted": -0.4745871199328722 } }, { "gameId": "401868008", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Fordham", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.6851851851851856, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.8636277173913043, "connected": 0.545014386670852, "sparseWeighted": 0.18167146222361732 } }, { "gameId": "401856785", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Colorado", "opponent": "Weber State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.3252156265854893, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6469298245614032, "connected": -0.2156432748538153, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860882", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Colorado State", "opponent": "Southern Utah", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.9198369565217384, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3797521824838075, "connected": 0.12658406082793763, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856684", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Delaware", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.05754475703324857, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.9107230305264851, "connected": 0.30357434350883794, "sparseWeighted": 0.10119144783627931 } }, { "gameId": "401858217", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Duke", "opponent": "Illinois", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.9788441692466465, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.0760865201916125, "connected": -0.35869550673056294, "sparseWeighted": -0.11956516891018765 } }, { "gameId": "401858440", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Michigan State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.4363488624052003, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7040259814466396, "connected": 0.2724761132085364, "sparseWeighted": 0.09082537106951212 } }, { "gameId": "401856672", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Florida", "opponent": "Campbell", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 4.956989247311828, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.4567164179104477, "connected": 0.8189054726368461, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401862703", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Florida Atlantic", "opponent": "Navy", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.1025753907109843, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.6383133020389775, "connected": -0.8794377673463403, "sparseWeighted": -0.29314592244878007 } }, { "gameId": "401860883", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Fresno State", "opponent": "Sacramento State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.572405372405372, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.461087688362938, "connected": -1.2738130467030846, "sparseWeighted": -0.42460434890102816 } }, { "gameId": "401856673", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Georgia", "opponent": "Western Kentucky", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 5.176126126126126, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 6.512195121951219, "connected": 2.1707317073171186, "sparseWeighted": 0.7235772357723729 } }, { "gameId": "401869955", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Georgia State", "opponent": "Kennesaw State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.9714285714285715, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3333230084388159, "connected": 0.11110766947961959, "sparseWeighted": 0.03703588982653986 } }, { "gameId": "401856681", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Georgia Tech", "opponent": "Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.7586427656850185, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.7673292621114762, "connected": -0.589109754037187, "sparseWeighted": -0.19636991801239567 } }, { "gameId": "401864578", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Hawaii", "opponent": "New Mexico State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.07575757575757525, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.7967943100407175, "connected": -1.0107916902431937, "sparseWeighted": -0.5053958451215969 } }, { "gameId": "401856787", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Houston", "opponent": "Southern", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 6.353422619047619, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.9479642313546424, "connected": 0.3159880771182295, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858439", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Howard", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 7.013040494166095, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2285853341985726, "connected": 0.4095284447328777, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856788", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "Iowa State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.002238567316917184, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5625424016282226, "connected": 0.18751413387607418, "sparseWeighted": 0.06250471129202473 } }, { "gameId": "401866418", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Jacksonville State", "opponent": "Ohio", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.2386363636363633, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.503998250193503, "connected": 0.6238557252495535, "sparseWeighted": 0.2079519084165178 } }, { "gameId": "401867929", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Wagner", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 6.439094848338951, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5001569858712713, "connected": 0.1667189952904255, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856781", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Kansas State", "opponent": "Washington State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 3.261081081081081, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.8648062946645387, "connected": 1.2882687648882034, "sparseWeighted": 0.4294229216294011 } }, { "gameId": "401866416", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Kent State", "opponent": "Wofford", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.958071278825996, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.614583333333334, "connected": -0.8715277777777886, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401868187", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Liberty", "opponent": "Gardner-Webb", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.4607341015791722, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5001569858712713, "connected": -0.16671899529042905, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858445", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Louisiana", "opponent": "Southern California", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.08179848320693406, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.19494420922103028, "connected": -0.34891091264553015, "sparseWeighted": -0.11630363754851004 } }, { "gameId": "401867796", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Louisiana Tech", "opponent": "LSU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -3.7584415584415583, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.5020839737791618, "connected": 0.500694657926404, "sparseWeighted": 0.16689821930880133 } }, { "gameId": "401862708", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponent": "UAB", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.5235760971055088, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.5321260974216004, "connected": -0.5107086991405401, "sparseWeighted": -0.17023623304684668 } }, { "gameId": "401871045", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Marshall", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.019482062247564436, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.2395833333333335, "connected": -1.0798611111111578, "sparseWeighted": -0.35995370370371926 } }, { "gameId": "401858444", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Maryland", "opponent": "UConn", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.801282051282051, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.14652411895562611, "connected": 0.04884137298519875, "sparseWeighted": 0.016280457661732917 } }, { "gameId": "401866417", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Miami (OH)", "opponent": "Holy Cross", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.97895622895623, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.8152873563218392, "connected": -0.6050957854406134, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856679", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Michigan", "opponent": "Oklahoma", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.12680756395995552, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4632931402102787, "connected": -0.15443104673677027, "sparseWeighted": -0.051477015578923424 } }, { "gameId": "401856677", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Minnesota", "opponent": "Mississippi State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.409197012138188, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5718214375518729, "connected": -0.19060714585065042, "sparseWeighted": -0.06353571528355013 } }, { "gameId": "401871046", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Missouri State", "opponent": "Lindenwood", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.165242165242165, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.133088235294118, "connected": -0.7110294117647399, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401864500", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Nevada", "opponent": "Montana State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": -0.32260228034875915, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.9518502943650122, "connected": 0.6506167647883596, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401865252", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "New Mexico", "opponent": "Mercyhurst", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 3.753246753246753, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.3040328393495564, "connected": 1.1871012235026748, "sparseWeighted": 0.3957004078342249 } }, { "gameId": "401858218", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "North Carolina", "opponent": "East Tennessee State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 4.250633624331174, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8456881640721521, "connected": 0.2818960546907148, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401862705", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "North Texas", "opponent": "UNLV", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.4463101160862353, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.4673128855941815, "connected": -0.5094786315754526, "sparseWeighted": -0.16982621052515084 } }, { "gameId": "401864503", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Northern Illinois", "opponent": "Illinois State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 0.6349206349206353, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.159090909090909, "connected": -0.7196969696969981, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401859184", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Rice", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.57123745819398, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.41957673827020914, "connected": -0.13985891275673942, "sparseWeighted": -0.046619637585579805 } }, { "gameId": "401856682", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Ohio State", "opponent": "Texas", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.5970695970695976, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.0918650793650797, "connected": 0.697288359788373, "sparseWeighted": 0.232429453262791 } }, { "gameId": "401856782", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Oklahoma State", "opponent": "Oregon", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.9119869307739439, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.8638839196978734, "connected": -0.9546279732326524, "sparseWeighted": -0.3182093244108841 } }, { "gameId": "401858221", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Old Dominion", "opponent": "Virginia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.1243291592128806, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.4908730158730155, "connected": -0.9189990749564276, "sparseWeighted": -0.3063330249854759 } }, { "gameId": "401856783", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Oregon State", "opponent": "Texas Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.891130567186905, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.5838276941886864, "connected": -0.8612758980628963, "sparseWeighted": -0.28709196602096543 } }, { "gameId": "401858442", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Temple", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.674217585692995, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.3896857923497268, "connected": 0.46322859744991146, "sparseWeighted": 0.1544095324833038 } }, { "gameId": "401856790", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Pittsburgh", "opponent": "UCF", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.4882075471698113, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3430459770114944, "connected": -0.44768199233716754, "sparseWeighted": -0.14922733077905584 } }, { "gameId": "401858224", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Purdue", "opponent": "Wake Forest", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.4953371592539453, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.4533219280661736, "connected": -0.4844406426887314, "sparseWeighted": -0.16148021422957712 } }, { "gameId": "401862707", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Sam Houston", "opponent": "Tulsa", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.5938148609381484, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9537551595691132, "connected": -0.31791838652304505, "sparseWeighted": -0.10597279550768168 } }, { "gameId": "401858443", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "San Diego State", "opponent": "UCLA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -2.1553030303030303, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.07179791830759, "connected": -0.35726597276921696, "sparseWeighted": -0.11908865758973898 } }, { "gameId": "401864504", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "San Jose State", "opponent": "Cal Poly", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.3929765886287626, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2765067749587873, "connected": 0.3317216457872636, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858223", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "SMU", "opponent": "UC Davis", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.8845238095238095, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.9833187006145745, "connected": 0.7468631772677631, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401864575", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "South Alabama", "opponent": "Tulane", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.6748366013071898, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6546554482600988, "connected": -0.21821848275336397, "sparseWeighted": -0.07273949425112132 } }, { "gameId": "401856680", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "South Carolina", "opponent": "Towson", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.270315091210613, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.7961802174618637, "connected": 0.9320600724873059, "sparseWeighted": 0.31068669082910194 } }, { "gameId": "401856789", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "TCU", "opponent": "Grambling", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.834837298331967, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.8456881640721521, "connected": -0.2818960546907318, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860884", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Texas State", "opponent": "UTSA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 0.6341216216216221, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.1310223195280664, "connected": -1.0436741065093877, "sparseWeighted": -0.34789136883646254 } }, { "gameId": "401866419", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Toledo", "opponent": "Central Connecticut", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.090290381125227, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.9377020276226857, "connected": 0.312567342540903, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401868326", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Troy", "opponent": "Alabama State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.4690669371196754, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.07337662337662332, "connected": -0.024458874458878663, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401866420", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "UMass", "opponent": "Sacred Heart", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.352611940298507, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.40476190476190466, "connected": 0.10996271623903206, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858446", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Utah State", "opponent": "Washington", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.13839701770736212, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5801091269841272, "connected": -0.19336970899472433, "sparseWeighted": -0.0644565696649081 } }, { "gameId": "401864505", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "UTEP", "opponent": "Texas Southern", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.6893667861409805, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.689039408866995, "connected": -0.5630131362890142, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856791", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "West Virginia", "opponent": "UT Martin", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.790476190476191, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5669791666666666, "connected": -0.18899305555555457, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401866421", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Western Michigan", "opponent": "Monmouth", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.4742690058479537, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2257462686567164, "connected": -0.4085820895522588, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858447", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Wisconsin", "opponent": "Western Illinois", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.7894096165550817, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.540983606557377, "connected": -0.18032786885246718, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401864506", "date": "2026-09-12", "team": "Wyoming", "opponent": "Northern Colorado", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-11", "trainingObservations": 210, "teamReferences": 1, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": -0.4978494623655916, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3797521824838075, "connected": -0.1265840608279394, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858225", "date": "2026-09-17", "team": "Pittsburgh", "opponent": "Syracuse", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-12", "trainingObservations": 370, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.1761904761904765, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.17348745891930673, "connected": 0.25142415435812826, "sparseWeighted": 0.12571207717906413 } }, { "gameId": "401856811", "date": "2026-09-18", "team": "Houston", "opponent": "Texas Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-17", "trainingObservations": 372, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.9766666666666666, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.7171886808189298, "connected": 1.078002686999968, "sparseWeighted": 0.539001343499984 } }, { "gameId": "401858226", "date": "2026-09-18", "team": "Miami", "opponent": "Wake Forest", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-17", "trainingObservations": 372, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.17172675521821645, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.1869564909625234, "connected": 1.1885552983250864, "sparseWeighted": 0.5942776491625432 } }, { "gameId": "401858455", "date": "2026-09-18", "team": "Oregon", "opponent": "Portland State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-17", "trainingObservations": 372, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.939620471535365, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2807780968130509, "connected": 0.487784055418443, "sparseWeighted": 0.162594685139481 } }, { "gameId": "401858451", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "Minnesota", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.488541666666667, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6250219009239341, "connected": -0.4549907915739073, "sparseWeighted": -0.22749539578695366 } }, { "gameId": "401856685", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "Florida State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.2315340909090917, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.6728578743348255, "connected": 0.8808029339911255, "sparseWeighted": 0.44040146699556276 } }, { "gameId": "401864574", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Appalachian State", "opponent": "Charlotte", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.6070175438596497, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.3888789383949074, "connected": 0.7508977574222886, "sparseWeighted": 0.3754488787111443 } }, { "gameId": "401856793", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "Northern Illinois", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.80107276119403, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.4875703373687243, "connected": 0.9552636677650664, "sparseWeighted": 0.4776318338825332 } }, { "gameId": "401856812", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Arizona State", "opponent": "Kansas", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.14004914004914, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.212637155012747, "connected": 0.7471412069472814, "sparseWeighted": 0.3735706034736407 } }, { "gameId": "401856686", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Arkansas", "opponent": "Georgia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.5263696876600097, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -3.9873716703556874, "connected": -2.092118504346798, "sparseWeighted": -1.046059252173399 } }, { "gameId": "401856799", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Arkansas State", "opponent": "TCU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.049019607843138, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6177115639807362, "connected": -0.46911191626201953, "sparseWeighted": -0.23455595813100977 } }, { "gameId": "401856687", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Auburn", "opponent": "Florida", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.8616427432216911, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.4386553890613505, "connected": -0.624153960322104, "sparseWeighted": -0.312076980161052 } }, { "gameId": "401866422", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Ball State", "opponent": "Liberty", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.741071428571429, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2744698200408568, "connected": -0.8590789806859782, "sparseWeighted": -0.4295394903429891 } }, { "gameId": "401867804", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Baylor", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.5060331825037707, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.1664266054705288, "connected": 0.10386227499500655, "sparseWeighted": 0.05193113749750328 } }, { "gameId": "401860885", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "South Dakota", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.166835443037975, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.4869017094017092, "connected": -0.7850571124976826, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858227", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Boston College", "opponent": "Maine", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.8924242424242426, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.584921360939015, "connected": 1.047481379890045, "sparseWeighted": 0.3491604599633483 } }, { "gameId": "401856798", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "Iowa State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -4.344951923076923, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.6551041742578, "connected": -1.5933130214095605, "sparseWeighted": -0.7966565107047803 } }, { "gameId": "401858456", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Buffalo", "opponent": "Penn State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -5.806207059938402, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.9571807919575392, "connected": -1.1467768596992682, "sparseWeighted": -0.5733884298496341 } }, { "gameId": "401856795", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "BYU", "opponent": "Colorado State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 4.9917771883289115, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.48509317328719015, "connected": 0.3764589874796402, "sparseWeighted": 0.1882294937398201 } }, { "gameId": "401858233", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "California", "opponent": "Wagner", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 5.460969205060874, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.0452019580136644, "connected": 0.5133531208319937, "sparseWeighted": 0.1711177069439979 } }, { "gameId": "401864508", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Central Michigan", "opponent": "Wyoming", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.17539804827940397, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.01628687710111365, "connected": -0.014721589977641392, "sparseWeighted": -0.007360794988820696 } }, { "gameId": "401856797", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Cincinnati", "opponent": "Miami (OH)", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.4530075187969924, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0727142160696237, "connected": 0.5924752136053292, "sparseWeighted": 0.2962376068026646 } }, { "gameId": "401858229", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Clemson", "opponent": "North Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.0177865612648223, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.278338572510805, "connected": -1.2226979641074864, "sparseWeighted": -0.6113489820537432 } }, { "gameId": "401869940", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Delaware", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.04163413999479548, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.11503083800441638, "connected": -0.06631575120257066, "sparseWeighted": -0.03315787560128533 } }, { "gameId": "401856796", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Colorado", "opponent": "Northwestern", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.18161732213875315, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.5557973692706932, "connected": -0.42974648325857245, "sparseWeighted": -0.14324882775285747 } }, { "gameId": "401858231", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Duke", "opponent": "Stanford", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 2.533511413307431, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.686779111058835, "connected": 0.3366396911960011, "sparseWeighted": 0.16831984559800056 } }, { "gameId": "401862710", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "Old Dominion", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.2224264705882355, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2533082759519703, "connected": -0.6353890202433958, "sparseWeighted": -0.3176945101216979 } }, { "gameId": "401858460", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Wisconsin", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -4.003174603174603, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9887027753783127, "connected": -0.818158363576378, "sparseWeighted": -0.409079181788189 } }, { "gameId": "401862771", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "FIU", "opponent": "Florida Atlantic", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.7261768082663602, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.4778070235958314, "connected": 1.3985423781596529, "sparseWeighted": 0.6992711890798264 } }, { "gameId": "401860888", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Fresno State", "opponent": "San Jose State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.42016806722689104, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6437201272576154, "connected": -0.46308918380781455, "sparseWeighted": -0.23154459190390728 } }, { "gameId": "401869948", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Georgia Southern", "opponent": "Jacksonville State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.0382653061224492, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.439601017137515, "connected": 0.05766274802440963, "sparseWeighted": 0.028831374012204813 } }, { "gameId": "401856800", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Georgia State", "opponent": "UCF", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.068295739348371, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.21771232742366164, "connected": -0.17348732573616077, "sparseWeighted": -0.08674366286808038 } }, { "gameId": "401858228", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Georgia Tech", "opponent": "Mercer", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.698924731182796, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.11619577914055301, "connected": 0.13085451464554743, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858448", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Illinois", "opponent": "Southern Illinois", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.099923722349352, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3785594905114176, "connected": 0.2529988167079962, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858449", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Western Kentucky", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 4.72354694485842, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 4.637509469354848, "connected": 2.540089458237187, "sparseWeighted": 1.2700447291185935 } }, { "gameId": "401858471", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "Northern Iowa", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 7.327586206896552, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0801050963746839, "connected": 0.7256229259189012, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860887", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "San Diego State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.4273429273429272, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.9784785820308968, "connected": 1.19588605570801, "sparseWeighted": 0.597943027854005 } }, { "gameId": "401856792", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Kansas State", "opponent": "Tulane", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 2.1778357235984354, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.9242361828601577, "connected": 1.0610408526286668, "sparseWeighted": 0.5305204263143334 } }, { "gameId": "401856692", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Kennesaw State", "opponent": "Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.109841417910448, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.0597635722408358, "connected": -0.6187386751035888, "sparseWeighted": -0.3093693375517944 } }, { "gameId": "401858454", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Kent State", "opponent": "Ohio State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -5.548484848484848, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.6094023573386784, "connected": -1.5503903035561104, "sparseWeighted": -0.7751951517780552 } }, { "gameId": "401856694", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Kentucky", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 2.5198412698412698, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.2909958029722075, "connected": -0.3483447956499426, "sparseWeighted": -0.1741723978249713 } }, { "gameId": "401862776", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Louisiana", "opponent": "UAB", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.8941570881226051, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.1260507670295952, "connected": 0.9544282731512077, "sparseWeighted": 0.47721413657560385 } }, { "gameId": "401868317", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponent": "SE Louisiana", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 1.3147727272727279, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.5953375995249015, "connected": -1.2577832843147483, "sparseWeighted": -0.41926109477158274 } }, { "gameId": "401858230", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Louisville", "opponent": "SMU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.3791666666666664, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9174864209280014, "connected": -0.5357590212409429, "sparseWeighted": -0.26787951062047144 } }, { "gameId": "401856688", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "LSU", "opponent": "Ole Miss", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.1213307240704502, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.566657459064988, "connected": 0.962791272160145, "sparseWeighted": 0.4813956360800725 } }, { "gameId": "401871047", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Marshall", "opponent": "Missouri State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.2494041170097505, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7400536058920402, "connected": -0.2936893476833933, "sparseWeighted": -0.14684467384169664 } }, { "gameId": "401858232", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Maryland", "opponent": "Virginia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.6760416666666664, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5981457818667124, "connected": 0.4696236798437497, "sparseWeighted": 0.23481183992187485 } }, { "gameId": "401862772", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Memphis", "opponent": "UT Martin", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.5214035087719298, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.6225113483781155, "connected": 1.185587259035783, "sparseWeighted": 0.39519575301192766 } }, { "gameId": "401858450", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Michigan", "opponent": "UTEP", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 2.96565349544073, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.0033492512366217753, "connected": 0.18204029341735217, "sparseWeighted": 0.09102014670867609 } }, { "gameId": "401858453", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Michigan State", "opponent": "Notre Dame", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.18441127694859, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2730649660372262, "connected": -0.7484748063682923, "sparseWeighted": -0.37423740318414617 } }, { "gameId": "401864443", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Middle Tennessee", "opponent": "Nevada", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.4677460156842903, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.2810290615334252, "connected": -0.18103782198181462, "sparseWeighted": -0.09051891099090731 } }, { "gameId": "401856691", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Mississippi State", "opponent": "South Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.9869267482880266, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.38323760490089365, "connected": -0.23090468258002173, "sparseWeighted": -0.11545234129001086 } }, { "gameId": "401856689", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Missouri", "opponent": "Troy", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.40750591016548476, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.986657277930293, "connected": 0.6794895695296037, "sparseWeighted": 0.33974478476480185 } }, { "gameId": "401856695", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "NC State", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.4061545176778703, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8176600350285043, "connected": 0.4432365241031052, "sparseWeighted": 0.2216182620515526 } }, { "gameId": "401858452", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Nebraska", "opponent": "North Dakota", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.216389244558259, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.7894807613557613, "connected": 0.9306718338583111, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856690", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "New Mexico", "opponent": "Oklahoma", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.909558378705384, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.6048890059316803, "connected": 0.040129311832130865, "sparseWeighted": 0.020064655916065433 } }, { "gameId": "401864507", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "North Dakota State", "opponent": "Sacramento State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.2400708322792813, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.181297180187916, "connected": 1.2500408891709278, "sparseWeighted": 0.7500245335025567 } }, { "gameId": "401860889", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "North Texas", "opponent": "Texas State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -2.0268738870001615, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.4351830279454383, "connected": 0.3753056399149645, "sparseWeighted": 0.18765281995748226 } }, { "gameId": "401866423", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Ohio", "opponent": "South Alabama", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.016464891041162666, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.32990222023224747, "connected": -0.062229547349702014, "sparseWeighted": -0.031114773674851007 } }, { "gameId": "401856803", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Oklahoma State", "opponent": "Murray State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 5.5902322811197145, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.1831808412206177, "connected": 0.5844773714876921, "sparseWeighted": 0.19482579049589735 } }, { "gameId": "401860886", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Oregon State", "opponent": "Montana", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.8055555555555554, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.0011994738805949368, "connected": 0.23405761392135843, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858458", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Purdue", "opponent": "UCLA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.20868644067796538, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3953447560859464, "connected": -0.7010907926643654, "sparseWeighted": -0.3505453963321827 } }, { "gameId": "401862773", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Rice", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 0.03686635944700445, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6682233092683321, "connected": -0.36709826808439633, "sparseWeighted": -0.18354913404219816 } }, { "gameId": "401858457", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Rutgers", "opponent": "Southern California", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.6507936507936503, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.4455275269981935, "connected": -1.1711583005382342, "sparseWeighted": -0.5855791502691171 } }, { "gameId": "401870764", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Sam Houston", "opponent": "Nicholls", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 5.490621468926554, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.070037607301673, "connected": 1.1374740047276903, "sparseWeighted": 0.37915800157589674 } }, { "gameId": "401862777", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "South Florida", "opponent": "Delaware State", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.1713688610240336, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.06334939254294092, "connected": 0.17781118636836854, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401861963", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Southern Miss", "opponent": "UConn", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.9998194293968936, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3174206857688269, "connected": -0.8820014961280248, "sparseWeighted": -0.4410007480640124 } }, { "gameId": "401862774", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Temple", "opponent": "Toledo", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.1498538011695905, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.844404235024095, "connected": -1.0221214873032511, "sparseWeighted": -0.5110607436516256 } }, { "gameId": "401856693", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Texas", "opponent": "UTSA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.7980005126890544, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6133910107688845, "connected": -0.07494571459350666, "sparseWeighted": -0.03747285729675333 } }, { "gameId": "401862775", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Tulsa", "opponent": "East Texas A&M", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 2.372233400402415, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.36511217623833114, "connected": 0.3070631014118648, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401866424", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "UMass", "opponent": "Stonehill", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.1878531073446332, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.040533937455579, "connected": 0.5739839891703575, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401856801", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Utah", "opponent": "Utah State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 3.0050050050050054, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.8015359040669816, "connected": 1.036716384455575, "sparseWeighted": 0.5183581922277875 } }, { "gameId": "401856802", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Virginia", "opponent": "West Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -1.3693277310924374, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0520634272629648, "connected": 0.7351163843656809, "sparseWeighted": 0.36755819218284047 } }, { "gameId": "401858459", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Washington", "opponent": "Eastern Washington", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 4.606451612903226, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5245546115696977, "connected": 0.2690594658010344, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860890", "date": "2026-09-19", "team": "Washington State", "opponent": "Duquesne", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-18", "trainingObservations": 378, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.7003722084367245, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3352037106906294, "connected": -0.06592368174114527, "sparseWeighted": -0.021974560580381754 } }, { "gameId": "401869941", "date": "2026-09-24", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Liberty", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-19", "trainingObservations": 520, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -3.2741702741702747, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.10988101668420935, "connected": 0.21067597214829192, "sparseWeighted": 0.12640558328897514 } }, { "gameId": "401862779", "date": "2026-09-25", "team": "Army", "opponent": "Temple", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-24", "trainingObservations": 522, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -3.8269230769230766, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.5182006994235266, "connected": 0.6429224174242517, "sparseWeighted": 0.32146120871212586 } }, { "gameId": "401858234", "date": "2026-09-25", "team": "California", "opponent": "Clemson", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-24", "trainingObservations": 522, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.1330827067669178, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.48619085279009167, "connected": 0.05633249249335826, "sparseWeighted": 0.03379949549601496 } }, { "gameId": "401858461", "date": "2026-09-25", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Northwestern", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-24", "trainingObservations": 522, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 1.138825324180015, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.288403838884073, "connected": 1.0082156301951992, "sparseWeighted": 0.5041078150975996 } }, { "gameId": "401862778", "date": "2026-09-25", "team": "Navy", "opponent": "UAB", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-24", "trainingObservations": 522, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.39853938445487724, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.6770528101269131, "connected": 0.1737591798549312, "sparseWeighted": 0.0868795899274656 } }, { "gameId": "401858468", "date": "2026-09-25", "team": "Rutgers", "opponent": "Howard", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-24", "trainingObservations": 522, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 3.5833333333333335, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.1059498185473347, "connected": 1.033922105414825, "sparseWeighted": 0.34464070180494166 } }, { "gameId": "401864509", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Air Force", "opponent": "Nevada", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 2, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": -0.7453450164293542, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.20511049905692802, "connected": 0.1172562805018098, "sparseWeighted": 0.0586281402509049 } }, { "gameId": "401864512", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "UNLV", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.6357416529830324, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.2487891534941699, "connected": -0.08791622490904444, "sparseWeighted": -0.05274973494542666 } }, { "gameId": "401856696", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "South Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 2.8392213410237925, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.506845884569749, "connected": -0.38781595620154613, "sparseWeighted": -0.23268957372092766 } }, { "gameId": "401864572", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Appalachian State", "opponent": "NC State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.4029881718198798, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.31894825248261227, "connected": 0.11737677785141559, "sparseWeighted": 0.07042606671084935 } }, { "gameId": "401856804", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "Washington State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.3222306813856104, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7647705381039215, "connected": 0.5735494714428986, "sparseWeighted": 0.34412968286573914 } }, { "gameId": "401856697", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Arkansas", "opponent": "Tulsa", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.2004602991944768, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3352871155233266, "connected": -0.8998235010406919, "sparseWeighted": -0.5398941006244151 } }, { "gameId": "401869931", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Arkansas State", "opponent": "Kennesaw State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.596774193548387, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.10244502095590113, "connected": -0.1349293203547038, "sparseWeighted": -0.08095759221282228 } }, { "gameId": "401856698", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Auburn", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.6636781609195408, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.08245467157149278, "connected": 0.10914642097607252, "sparseWeighted": 0.0654878525856435 } }, { "gameId": "401866425", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Ball State", "opponent": "Kent State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.3169934640522878, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.07350827623788225, "connected": 0.039759721653763735, "sparseWeighted": 0.02385583299225824 } }, { "gameId": "401856813", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Baylor", "opponent": "Colorado", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.07257257257257255, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5663263057721037, "connected": 0.4793938486173309, "sparseWeighted": 0.28763630917039856 } }, { "gameId": "401860897", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.4274509803921571, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7944469172760631, "connected": -0.5305198931289754, "sparseWeighted": -0.3183119358773852 } }, { "gameId": "401858242", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Boston College", "opponent": "Virginia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.5265062806046412, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4535812903180667, "connected": -0.5152576018245663, "sparseWeighted": -0.30915456109473977 } }, { "gameId": "401862785", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "South Florida", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.6442932261057845, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.448746910558656, "connected": -1.7582956949399322, "sparseWeighted": -1.0549774169639592 } }, { "gameId": "401866426", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Buffalo", "opponent": "Robert Morris", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -1.105121293800539, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3325116118082678, "connected": -0.15516667437664045, "sparseWeighted": -0.05172222479221348 } }, { "gameId": "401858238", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Central Michigan", "opponent": "Miami", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -5.313725490196079, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.4521812737601625, "connected": -1.9403416641193192, "sparseWeighted": -1.1642049984715914 } }, { "gameId": "401862780", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Charlotte", "opponent": "Louisiana", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.6991452991452993, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.1795830884340948, "connected": -0.9022214449817714, "sparseWeighted": -0.5413328669890628 } }, { "gameId": "401856814", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Cincinnati", "opponent": "Kansas State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 2.9615196078431367, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3370795172738514, "connected": -0.9683165714741729, "sparseWeighted": -0.5809899428845038 } }, { "gameId": "401860896", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Colorado State", "opponent": "UTSA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.117521367521367, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4594406809784549, "connected": -0.3063955025237035, "sparseWeighted": -0.1838373015142221 } }, { "gameId": "401858239", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Delaware", "opponent": "Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -3.734158926728586, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.2096351840934818, "connected": -0.20833703403013631, "sparseWeighted": -0.1250022204180818 } }, { "gameId": "401858244", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Duke", "opponent": "William & Mary", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.585915492957746, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.6422107789105281, "connected": 0.6480571732725076, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401862781", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "North Carolina Central", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.178571428571429, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3296661803083172, "connected": 0.011332967204654043, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401866427", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Lindenwood", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.0660535117056855, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.660842626335584, "connected": -0.19364060995145527, "sparseWeighted": -0.06454686998381842 } }, { "gameId": "401867909", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "FIU", "opponent": "Long Island University", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 2.696296296296296, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 3.4257690256290356, "connected": 1.4009158246467794, "sparseWeighted": 0.46697194154892646 } }, { "gameId": "401856699", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Florida", "opponent": "Ole Miss", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.43097497842968124, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.3814486472747427, "connected": 0.7968520017685756, "sparseWeighted": 0.47811120106114535 } }, { "gameId": "401862782", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Florida Atlantic", "opponent": "Louisiana-Monroe", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.33442288049029667, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.16267455647165696, "connected": -0.04596773002588861, "sparseWeighted": -0.027580638015533166 } }, { "gameId": "401858237", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Florida State", "opponent": "Central Arkansas", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.290239726027398, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6138366628311208, "connected": -0.21694457881042412, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860891", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Fresno State", "opponent": "Rice", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.5992063492063489, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.354090071044029, "connected": 0.30304707561007904, "sparseWeighted": 0.18182824536604741 } }, { "gameId": "401856700", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Georgia", "opponent": "Oklahoma", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.483729833196609, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.90145678475987, "connected": 0.9987710588653608, "sparseWeighted": 0.5992626353192164 } }, { "gameId": "401856806", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Georgia Southern", "opponent": "Houston", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.5384615384615383, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7095830362935305, "connected": -0.6249627602361114, "sparseWeighted": -0.37497765614166684 } }, { "gameId": "401864511", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Georgia State", "opponent": "Northern Illinois", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.08219178082191814, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.5622746691515084, "connected": 1.1348493915670572, "sparseWeighted": 0.6809096349402343 } }, { "gameId": "401858240", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Georgia Tech", "opponent": "Stanford", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.532317190816129, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8658360353346028, "connected": 0.6758329889669326, "sparseWeighted": 0.4054997933801595 } }, { "gameId": "401864510", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Hawaii", "opponent": "Wyoming", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.448739907022266, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5179575623296349, "connected": -0.4754830876258085, "sparseWeighted": -0.28528985257548506 } }, { "gameId": "401858465", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Illinois", "opponent": "Ohio State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.110604805302402, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.183472867600645, "connected": -0.9308817970941183, "sparseWeighted": -0.558529078256471 } }, { "gameId": "401858463", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.4783150548354937, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0596113539335135, "connected": 0.679158176842531, "sparseWeighted": 0.4074949061055186 } }, { "gameId": "401856816", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Iowa State", "opponent": "Utah", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.521232876712328, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5560907345805608, "connected": -0.3801021730318487, "sparseWeighted": -0.2280613038191092 } }, { "gameId": "401871048", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Jacksonville State", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 2.333333333333333, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.07264987765401748, "connected": 0.355822331897336, "sparseWeighted": 0.21349339913840157 } }, { "gameId": "401869961", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Old Dominion", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.4942293373045419, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7311104640483285, "connected": 0.4795919505565429, "sparseWeighted": 0.2877551703339257 } }, { "gameId": "401864576", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Kentucky", "opponent": "South Alabama", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 3.5544515103338625, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2260688585292434, "connected": 1.1905705056756772, "sparseWeighted": 0.7143423034054063 } }, { "gameId": "401858243", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Louisville", "opponent": "Wake Forest", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.1982720425343372, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5727455682417063, "connected": 0.38523679099375474, "sparseWeighted": 0.23114207459625283 } }, { "gameId": "401856702", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "LSU", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 4.383333333333334, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.05469149787015, "connected": 0.8802573973163644, "sparseWeighted": 0.5281544383898187 } }, { "gameId": "401868188", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Marshall", "opponent": "Gardner-Webb", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": -0.046666666666666856, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.15472509019774427, "connected": -0.40416067696565083, "sparseWeighted": -0.13472022565521694 } }, { "gameId": "401858462", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Maryland", "opponent": "UCLA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -4.916494133885438, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5480608419164695, "connected": 0.5255534562442138, "sparseWeighted": 0.3153320737465283 } }, { "gameId": "401861970", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Miami (OH)", "opponent": "UConn", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.9643046007403493, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6143585645242216, "connected": -0.44343777434145837, "sparseWeighted": -0.266062664604875 } }, { "gameId": "401858464", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Michigan State", "opponent": "Nebraska", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.1431372549019612, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.999629793295011, "connected": -1.1845871900628158, "sparseWeighted": -0.7107523140376895 } }, { "gameId": "401858470", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Minnesota", "opponent": "Washington", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.23372434017595367, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.36860565893696107, "connected": -0.1557515314532849, "sparseWeighted": -0.09345091887197095 } }, { "gameId": "401856703", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Mississippi State", "opponent": "Missouri", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.8774358974358982, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.37950156238477417, "connected": 0.39387629933096235, "sparseWeighted": 0.2363257795985774 } }, { "gameId": "401858241", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Missouri State", "opponent": "SMU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -3.63883217639853, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.3872541220704355, "connected": -1.3399239779278846, "sparseWeighted": -0.8039543867567308 } }, { "gameId": "401864579", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "New Mexico", "opponent": "New Mexico State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.8491847826086953, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.19482051518319576, "connected": 0.4035101121517393, "sparseWeighted": 0.2421060672910436 } }, { "gameId": "401862783", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "North Texas", "opponent": "Houston Christian", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 5.979472140762463, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.620937938275741, "connected": 0.36935213601377626, "sparseWeighted": 0.12311737867125874 } }, { "gameId": "401858467", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Purdue", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 4.449290060851927, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2051020237906662, "connected": 0.8823310691142283, "sparseWeighted": 0.529398641468537 } }, { "gameId": "401866428", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Ohio", "opponent": "Stonehill", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.1030392883617495, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8225597905682656, "connected": -0.0452792617438626, "sparseWeighted": -0.015093087247954199 } }, { "gameId": "401856881", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Oklahoma State", "opponent": "West Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 3.649064171122994, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.23701834296114832, "connected": 0.2317156221234386, "sparseWeighted": 0.13902937327406314 } }, { "gameId": "401858469", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Oregon", "opponent": "Southern California", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 1.465098039215687, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.279979373358632, "connected": -0.12318002492379765, "sparseWeighted": -0.07390801495427858 } }, { "gameId": "401860895", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Oregon State", "opponent": "UTEP", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 4.548644338118022, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5758538645111526, "connected": 0.5405258170536154, "sparseWeighted": 0.3243154902321692 } }, { "gameId": "401858466", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Wisconsin", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.7941724941724941, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.968579050947189, "connected": 0.725616728103928, "sparseWeighted": 0.43537003686235676 } }, { "gameId": "401858236", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Pittsburgh", "opponent": "Bucknell", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 6.613531047265987, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8824954560006609, "connected": 1.042420519994991, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401866429", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Sacramento State", "opponent": "UMass", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.0882136731193333, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.5913346798802441, "connected": -1.4245107723653039, "sparseWeighted": -0.8547064634191823 } }, { "gameId": "401856805", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Sam Houston", "opponent": "Texas Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.9827505827505822, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.6456544252450165, "connected": 0.368379279352389, "sparseWeighted": 0.2210275676114334 } }, { "gameId": "401860893", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "San Diego State", "opponent": "Toledo", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.704201680672269, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.5028994454875348, "connected": -1.134592271081082, "sparseWeighted": -0.6807553626486492 } }, { "gameId": "401862784", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Southern Miss", "opponent": "Tulane", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.48640422077922096, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.15631216106898074, "connected": -0.20104038768137722, "sparseWeighted": -0.12062423260882632 } }, { "gameId": "401856815", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "TCU", "opponent": "UCF", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 0.1005350605463251, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.1173790468024043, "connected": -0.2228075093388583, "sparseWeighted": -0.13368450560331496 } }, { "gameId": "401856704", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Tennessee", "opponent": "Texas", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.8557416267942584, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0183928592679141, "connected": 0.5263478155405016, "sparseWeighted": 0.31580868932430095 } }, { "gameId": "401860892", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Texas State", "opponent": "Incarnate Word", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 5.558454106280193, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.04588020381791639, "connected": 0.15966109432385717, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401860894", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Troy", "opponent": "Utah State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.0625, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7097677713850229, "connected": 0.5232796534093902, "sparseWeighted": 0.31396779204563413 } }, { "gameId": "401870745", "date": "2026-09-26", "team": "Western Kentucky", "opponent": "Mercyhurst", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-25", "trainingObservations": 532, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 2, "references": 2, "weight": 0.5, "actual": 5.228932261768082, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.25303308167610705, "connected": -0.15130172987907542, "sparseWeighted": -0.07565086493953771 } }, { "gameId": "401871049", "date": "2026-10-01", "team": "New Mexico State", "opponent": "Western Kentucky", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-26", "trainingObservations": 662, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.1504504504504505, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.3214021938692375, "connected": 0.7893066955777006, "sparseWeighted": 0.5262044637184671 } }, { "gameId": "401862786", "date": "2026-10-01", "team": "North Texas", "opponent": "Tulsa", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-09-26", "trainingObservations": 662, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.2547619047619047, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.16368948691126617, "connected": 0.19272580457343275, "sparseWeighted": 0.1284838697156218 } }, { "gameId": "401871050", "date": "2026-10-02", "team": "Delaware", "opponent": "Liberty", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-01", "trainingObservations": 666, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.11388888888888893, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7465235035956913, "connected": -0.6309851528118897, "sparseWeighted": -0.4206567685412598 } }, { "gameId": "401858476", "date": "2026-10-02", "team": "Northwestern", "opponent": "Penn State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-01", "trainingObservations": 666, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 2.7142857142857144, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6876457313937853, "connected": -0.5725227272088164, "sparseWeighted": -0.3435136363252898 } }, { "gameId": "401858245", "date": "2026-10-02", "team": "Pittsburgh", "opponent": "Virginia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-01", "trainingObservations": 666, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.9995508645856725, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7584111204331869, "connected": 0.9014739211661583, "sparseWeighted": 0.6009826141107721 } }, { "gameId": "401862791", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Air Force", "opponent": "Navy", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.4680164319248825, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.18057256673608463, "connected": 0.34277900762737223, "sparseWeighted": 0.20566740457642332 } }, { "gameId": "401866430", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "Central Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.68343765045739, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.14896854872016163, "connected": 0.03806606033425708, "sparseWeighted": 0.025377373556171385 } }, { "gameId": "401856707", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "Mississippi State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 3.603747072599532, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.19002411760038473, "connected": -0.06003428273486611, "sparseWeighted": -0.0400228551565774 } }, { "gameId": "401856820", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "Cincinnati", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.7098515519568154, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.09467835760547949, "connected": -0.19547885197397785, "sparseWeighted": -0.13031923464931855 } }, { "gameId": "401856817", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Arizona State", "opponent": "Baylor", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.6122134793020866, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.20528442034899497, "connected": -0.09281443527969496, "sparseWeighted": -0.055688661167816976 } }, { "gameId": "401856711", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Arkansas", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.3438673341677099, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.15819508764243506, "connected": 0.3170813497444575, "sparseWeighted": 0.211387566496305 } }, { "gameId": "401869932", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Arkansas State", "opponent": "Louisiana", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.4788359788359795, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6134537651536887, "connected": -0.5262832959229649, "sparseWeighted": -0.3508555306153099 } }, { "gameId": "401869842", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Army", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 3, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -2.723112128146454, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.06087136425990783, "connected": -0.24002430327686747, "sparseWeighted": -0.14401458196612046 } }, { "gameId": "401856710", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Auburn", "opponent": "Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.4867967853042474, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3654280981952246, "connected": -0.10934623614533967, "sparseWeighted": -0.07289749076355978 } }, { "gameId": "401866431", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Ball State", "opponent": "Toledo", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.46249062265566376, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.439409245145372, "connected": -2.236579664485271, "sparseWeighted": -1.4910531096568473 } }, { "gameId": "401860898", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Utah State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.9710789766407117, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.38400269575843893, "connected": -0.5302871463655552, "sparseWeighted": -0.35352476424370344 } }, { "gameId": "401858246", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Boston College", "opponent": "SMU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.4377171215880895, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2555140254747559, "connected": -1.114401631203029, "sparseWeighted": -0.7429344208020192 } }, { "gameId": "401866477", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "Miami (OH)", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.896892655367231, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.898062129306918, "connected": -1.8431295481691348, "sparseWeighted": -1.2287530321127564 } }, { "gameId": "401866432", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Buffalo", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.6683480453972255, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9478282997380993, "connected": -0.8823886260259385, "sparseWeighted": -0.5882590840172923 } }, { "gameId": "401856818", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "BYU", "opponent": "TCU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -1.2252199413489735, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.98195491233903, "connected": 0.6115235179468248, "sparseWeighted": 0.3669141107680949 } }, { "gameId": "401858247", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "California", "opponent": "UNLV", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.06537625913489986, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.189229638601065, "connected": -0.18897162149321195, "sparseWeighted": -0.12598108099547461 } }, { "gameId": "401862787", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Charlotte", "opponent": "Memphis", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.348033707865169, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2791040919134675, "connected": -0.9161837498323934, "sparseWeighted": -0.6107891665549289 } }, { "gameId": "401858249", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Clemson", "opponent": "Miami", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.091397849462365, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.4436736022844987, "connected": -1.9768874599073674, "sparseWeighted": -1.317924973271578 } }, { "gameId": "401869942", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Georgia Southern", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.778032036613273, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.11126465931555946, "connected": -0.22048140650158243, "sparseWeighted": -0.1469876043343883 } }, { "gameId": "401856821", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Colorado", "opponent": "Texas Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.3125, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.44535594064338446, "connected": -0.5494406073466156, "sparseWeighted": -0.366293738231077 } }, { "gameId": "401860899", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Colorado State", "opponent": "Oregon State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.8646616541353387, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2224199040640154, "connected": -1.2494165276148228, "sparseWeighted": -0.8329443517432151 } }, { "gameId": "401866433", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "UMass", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.12040133779264206, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.7105927301436155, "connected": -1.5503938279848406, "sparseWeighted": -1.033595885323227 } }, { "gameId": "401856708", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Florida", "opponent": "Missouri", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -3.4067234848484844, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5627596291384431, "connected": 0.36780804602780226, "sparseWeighted": 0.24520536401853482 } }, { "gameId": "401862790", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Florida Atlantic", "opponent": "Texas Southern", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 1, "references": 1, "weight": 0.3333333333333333, "actual": 4.213836477987422, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.0437131237819974, "connected": 0.5700305120058582, "sparseWeighted": 0.1900101706686194 } }, { "gameId": "401858253", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Florida State", "opponent": "Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 4.2912393162393165, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.952797876598774, "connected": -0.7424117877383483, "sparseWeighted": -0.4949411918255655 } }, { "gameId": "401860921", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Fresno State", "opponent": "Washington State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.3767748478701827, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.09435558132092714, "connected": -0.0170065302168598, "sparseWeighted": -0.011337686811239867 } }, { "gameId": "401856705", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Georgia", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.3912655971479504, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.9027134562475139, "connected": 1.5921060671356535, "sparseWeighted": 1.0614040447571023 } }, { "gameId": "401869956", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Georgia State", "opponent": "Old Dominion", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 4.621442125237191, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.24820577818073108, "connected": -0.00941274823404134, "sparseWeighted": -0.006275165489360893 } }, { "gameId": "401864513", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Hawaii", "opponent": "San Jose State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.7265745007680495, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9646595851613623, "connected": -0.943132161813887, "sparseWeighted": -0.6287547745425913 } }, { "gameId": "401856819", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Houston", "opponent": "UCF", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.5232225401716928, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2518657694066093, "connected": 0.2134680983302546, "sparseWeighted": 0.14231206555350306 } }, { "gameId": "401858472", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Illinois", "opponent": "Purdue", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.359375, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.1682303918039025, "connected": 0.9521004061451459, "sparseWeighted": 0.6347336040967639 } }, { "gameId": "401858477", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Rutgers", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 4.1024064171123, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.7690840836853272, "connected": 1.6420925312476846, "sparseWeighted": 1.094728354165123 } }, { "gameId": "401858473", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "Ohio State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.049974502804691, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5819890197176876, "connected": -0.6129017972115274, "sparseWeighted": -0.40860119814101825 } }, { "gameId": "401856822", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Iowa State", "opponent": "West Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.6301169590643267, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5797245096075937, "connected": 0.540420265662332, "sparseWeighted": 0.36028017710822136 } }, { "gameId": "401869962", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Marshall", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 3.0707573244886666, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.8397750746649515, "connected": 1.7372850773503592, "sparseWeighted": 1.1581900515669061 } }, { "gameId": "401856807", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Kansas", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": 5.267928858290303, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7013186534315357, "connected": 0.7291756652338639, "sparseWeighted": 0.43750539914031833 } }, { "gameId": "401866434", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Kent State", "opponent": "Ohio", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.6548821548821548, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7471781852513344, "connected": -0.6275488167824712, "sparseWeighted": -0.4183658778549808 } }, { "gameId": "401856709", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Kentucky", "opponent": "South Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.1379071379071384, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2370011891457774, "connected": 0.02495886796221669, "sparseWeighted": 0.01663924530814446 } }, { "gameId": "401871089", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponent": "South Alabama", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -2.3634336677814947, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.09942655170661363, "connected": 0.08056531428170888, "sparseWeighted": 0.05371020952113925 } }, { "gameId": "401858248", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Louisville", "opponent": "NC State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.9491341991341997, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3197351756425374, "connected": 0.5035228638033249, "sparseWeighted": 0.3356819092022166 } }, { "gameId": "401856706", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "LSU", "opponent": "McNeese", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 3.067410996418791, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.356334333019793, "connected": 1.5060209772215813, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401858475", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Maryland", "opponent": "Nebraska", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.23536231884058, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9218210848460879, "connected": -0.48878081899061443, "sparseWeighted": -0.32585387932707627 } }, { "gameId": "401858474", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Michigan", "opponent": "Minnesota", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.35729984301412854, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2552366347366871, "connected": 0.327053354406995, "sparseWeighted": 0.21803556960466333 } }, { "gameId": "401858479", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Michigan State", "opponent": "Wisconsin", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -3.0414454879542676, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2839241531847683, "connected": -1.0325865967809968, "sparseWeighted": -0.6883910645206646 } }, { "gameId": "401864514", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "New Mexico", "opponent": "UTEP", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.4748911465892593, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2583848343094677, "connected": 0.8328553295147045, "sparseWeighted": 0.5552368863431363 } }, { "gameId": "401858250", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "North Carolina", "opponent": "Notre Dame", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.8306836248012726, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7151593526035469, "connected": -0.9028839280191128, "sparseWeighted": -0.5417303568114676 } }, { "gameId": "401864515", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "North Dakota State", "opponent": "Wyoming", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.508163265306122, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7838060401956135, "connected": 0.9361564375799486, "sparseWeighted": 0.6241042917199657 } }, { "gameId": "401862788", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Rice", "opponent": "UTSA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.494444444444444, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.5719717058047491, "connected": -0.6949808634133555, "sparseWeighted": -0.46332057560890366 } }, { "gameId": "401860900", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "San Diego State", "opponent": "Texas State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.9430618401206639, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.1799731806556226, "connected": -1.008263528345794, "sparseWeighted": -0.6721756855638625 } }, { "gameId": "401862792", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "South Florida", "opponent": "Temple", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.6466666666666674, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.16213971811629374, "connected": -0.2479134780277808, "sparseWeighted": -0.1652756520185205 } }, { "gameId": "401858478", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Southern California", "opponent": "Washington", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.09927536231884027, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.28587647558213947, "connected": -0.008396474111796587, "sparseWeighted": -0.005597649407864391 } }, { "gameId": "401858251", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Stanford", "opponent": "Wake Forest", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -4.8059701492537314, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.093842279170328, "connected": -1.0793929219600922, "sparseWeighted": -0.7195952813067281 } }, { "gameId": "401858252", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "Syracuse", "opponent": "UConn", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 3, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 3, "weight": 0.6, "actual": -0.7550079491255959, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.04068579219405777, "connected": 0.03176460109095136, "sparseWeighted": 0.019058760654570815 } }, { "gameId": "401862793", "date": "2026-10-03", "team": "UAB", "opponent": "Samford", "division": "fcs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-02", "trainingObservations": 672, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 0, "references": 0, "weight": 0, "actual": 1.455026455026455, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.18314046723181698, "connected": -0.07420401499522788, "sparseWeighted": 0 } }, { "gameId": "401871090", "date": "2026-10-06", "team": "Southern Miss", "opponent": "Troy", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-03", "trainingObservations": 780, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.5174242424242426, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.1434605923794931, "connected": -0.19844684698020656, "sparseWeighted": -0.13229789798680436 } }, { "gameId": "401871066", "date": "2026-10-07", "team": "FIU", "opponent": "New Mexico State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-06", "trainingObservations": 782, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.632183908045977, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5999889612059766, "connected": 0.46896745595586875, "sparseWeighted": 0.31264497063724583 } }, { "gameId": "401871051", "date": "2026-10-07", "team": "Jacksonville State", "opponent": "Kennesaw State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-06", "trainingObservations": 782, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.1049896049896049, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7262305993547196, "connected": 0.7294204433959023, "sparseWeighted": 0.48628029559726815 } }, { "gameId": "401869933", "date": "2026-10-08", "team": "Arkansas State", "opponent": "South Alabama", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-07", "trainingObservations": 786, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 1.1714285714285708, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.3274072643463997, "connected": 0.6242889045278185, "sparseWeighted": 0.44592064609129894 } }, { "gameId": "401870766", "date": "2026-10-08", "team": "Liberty", "opponent": "Sam Houston", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-07", "trainingObservations": 786, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 3.6360729133354655, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2529001979133014, "connected": 0.400277792071506, "sparseWeighted": 0.266851861381004 } }, { "gameId": "401871052", "date": "2026-10-08", "team": "Missouri State", "opponent": "Western Kentucky", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-07", "trainingObservations": 786, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.1120398009950243, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.5361938892478373, "connected": 0.243371030624972, "sparseWeighted": 0.16224735374998134 } }, { "gameId": "401862794", "date": "2026-10-08", "team": "South Florida", "opponent": "UTSA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-07", "trainingObservations": 786, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.7586885245901644, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.014057618070559497, "connected": -0.1724225462042896, "sparseWeighted": -0.12315896157449258 } }, { "gameId": "401856826", "date": "2026-10-09", "team": "BYU", "opponent": "Iowa State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-08", "trainingObservations": 794, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 4.7236533957845435, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7348378542113841, "connected": 0.648998465241037, "sparseWeighted": 0.43266564349402464 } }, { "gameId": "401858254", "date": "2026-10-09", "team": "Florida State", "opponent": "Louisville", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-08", "trainingObservations": 794, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -4.557321988356471, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3412785285027493, "connected": -0.35163342649730417, "sparseWeighted": -0.2511667332123601 } }, { "gameId": "401858487", "date": "2026-10-09", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "Washington", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-08", "trainingObservations": 794, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 3.9868421052631566, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.15494959534301989, "connected": 0.34346036762895765, "sparseWeighted": 0.24532883402068403 } }, { "gameId": "401864519", "date": "2026-10-09", "team": "San Jose State", "opponent": "Wyoming", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-08", "trainingObservations": 794, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 0.4588744588744591, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.24936402578066297, "connected": 0.25253577953044526, "sparseWeighted": 0.18038269966460377 } }, { "gameId": "401860922", "date": "2026-10-09", "team": "Utah State", "opponent": "Washington State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-08", "trainingObservations": 794, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 0.43487394957983216, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2967158005721674, "connected": 0.4456191262243957, "sparseWeighted": 0.31829937587456836 } }, { "gameId": "401864516", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Air Force", "opponent": "Northern Illinois", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.5721614227086187, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7811468085352404, "connected": 0.38438114460865447, "sparseWeighted": 0.2562540964057696 } }, { "gameId": "401866435", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "Eastern Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 6, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 1.1859450021824527, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3779501237933454, "connected": -0.27267492944202865, "sparseWeighted": -0.1947678067443062 } }, { "gameId": "401856712", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "Georgia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.692349726775956, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7783732783509025, "connected": -0.30722064552849815, "sparseWeighted": -0.21944331823464153 } }, { "gameId": "401869843", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Appalachian State", "opponent": "Old Dominion", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.8803591470258136, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0790450755117806, "connected": 0.7504260065387974, "sparseWeighted": 0.5002840043591983 } }, { "gameId": "401856823", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "West Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 4.431749622926094, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7093276784573542, "connected": 0.7861053721213206, "sparseWeighted": 0.5615038372295147 } }, { "gameId": "401856808", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Arizona State", "opponent": "Hawaii", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.5564787783516723, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8423985108896737, "connected": 1.0565345259520766, "sparseWeighted": 0.7043563506347177 } }, { "gameId": "401856713", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Arkansas", "opponent": "Tennessee", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.747438524590164, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.0676911567600174, "connected": -0.9659917742050658, "sparseWeighted": -0.6899941244321899 } }, { "gameId": "401862795", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Army", "opponent": "Tulane", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.030769230769231548, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.02351302208243089, "connected": -0.18115881946052148, "sparseWeighted": -0.12077254630701431 } }, { "gameId": "401858482", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Ball State", "opponent": "Northwestern", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -3.3118881118881127, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.6513452715002654, "connected": -1.7593744495699402, "sparseWeighted": -1.1729162997132934 } }, { "gameId": "401860901", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Fresno State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.30330106726234796, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.3671099953372198, "connected": -0.1897761643858637, "sparseWeighted": -0.1355544031327598 } }, { "gameId": "401866436", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "Sacramento State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 2.707991242474001, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6503004773966199, "connected": -0.5260472122574081, "sparseWeighted": -0.3757480087552915 } }, { "gameId": "401866437", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Buffalo", "opponent": "Toledo", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.4836065573770494, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -2.0974755855474783, "connected": -2.1770848867513304, "sparseWeighted": -1.5550606333938075 } }, { "gameId": "401858259", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "California", "opponent": "Virginia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.524499654934437, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.8275637309854318, "connected": -1.0209454343930795, "sparseWeighted": -0.7292467388521997 } }, { "gameId": "401866438", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Central Michigan", "opponent": "Ohio", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.0157563025210088, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4257908088375352, "connected": -0.2463347425822155, "sparseWeighted": -0.17595338755872536 } }, { "gameId": "401862796", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Charlotte", "opponent": "North Texas", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -3.3928571428571432, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.1892323021774156, "connected": -1.2365763578315052, "sparseWeighted": -0.8832688270225038 } }, { "gameId": "401869943", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Marshall", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.5854700854700852, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7236552184809082, "connected": 0.8656622096618448, "sparseWeighted": 0.6183301497584606 } }, { "gameId": "401858255", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Duke", "opponent": "Georgia Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.2907268170426063, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.0921694678270575, "connected": 0.9601677737218963, "sparseWeighted": 0.6401118491479308 } }, { "gameId": "401862797", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "Rice", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.4287179487179489, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.6509206437731805, "connected": 0.778987418491979, "sparseWeighted": 0.5193249456613193 } }, { "gameId": "401856714", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Florida", "opponent": "South Carolina", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.2286036036036032, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.008312555660364707, "connected": -0.07104511447156595, "sparseWeighted": -0.05074651033683282 } }, { "gameId": "401869949", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Georgia Southern", "opponent": "James Madison", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 1.465534465534466, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9176981713736841, "connected": -0.6997366093205177, "sparseWeighted": -0.4998118638003698 } }, { "gameId": "401856825", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Houston", "opponent": "Kansas State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.4390527048990016, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.20210620336124507, "connected": 0.3906463245105947, "sparseWeighted": 0.26043088300706313 } }, { "gameId": "401858480", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Illinois", "opponent": "Michigan State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.4904761904761905, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.095223109173761, "connected": 0.9681005915001755, "sparseWeighted": 0.6915004225001253 } }, { "gameId": "401858481", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Nebraska", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 2.731653888280394, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.7682177984990128, "connected": 0.9412817850627437, "sparseWeighted": 0.6723441321876741 } }, { "gameId": "401856827", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Kansas", "opponent": "Utah", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.24580017683465982, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.43427510219408294, "connected": -0.3408170087028859, "sparseWeighted": -0.22721133913525726 } }, { "gameId": "401866439", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Kent State", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -2.6782531194295895, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.6384276101247972, "connected": -0.4171825839512438, "sparseWeighted": -0.2979875599651742 } }, { "gameId": "401856715", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Kentucky", "opponent": "LSU", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 0.12241093620546817, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.748664961675259, "connected": -0.8128827947660511, "sparseWeighted": -0.5806305676900365 } }, { "gameId": "401869965", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Louisiana", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.5806090461262876, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.12405406110187689, "connected": 0.054151516602437555, "sparseWeighted": 0.0361010110682917 } }, { "gameId": "401858483", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Maryland", "opponent": "Ohio State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -3.7525293956795185, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -1.2968059650832005, "connected": -1.32840509111696, "sparseWeighted": -0.9488607793692572 } }, { "gameId": "401862798", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Memphis", "opponent": "UAB", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 1.5143998318267808, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.92431740183053, "connected": 0.8621908630714346, "sparseWeighted": 0.6158506164795962 } }, { "gameId": "401866440", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Miami (OH)", "opponent": "UMass", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.3462887989203782, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.7689802887596263, "connected": -0.4757792669665206, "sparseWeighted": -0.33984233354751475 } }, { "gameId": "401858486", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Minnesota", "opponent": "Purdue", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.2467497291440957, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.8566971544088933, "connected": 0.47063331475133235, "sparseWeighted": 0.33616665339380886 } }, { "gameId": "401856716", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Missouri", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 1.9883512544802868, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2106009955227188, "connected": 1.4171751108285067, "sparseWeighted": 1.0122679363060763 } }, { "gameId": "401862799", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Navy", "opponent": "Tulsa", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.8880597014925371, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.27915978566482036, "connected": -0.0017696864324387995, "sparseWeighted": -0.0011797909549591996 } }, { "gameId": "401858260", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "NC State", "opponent": "Wake Forest", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.577445652173913, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.9273056429146667, "connected": -1.1374639723984405, "sparseWeighted": -0.8124742659988862 } }, { "gameId": "401864517", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Nevada", "opponent": "UTEP", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.0134300295460648, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.2501272648148933, "connected": 1.0182396713969526, "sparseWeighted": 0.6788264475979684 } }, { "gameId": "401858256", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "North Carolina", "opponent": "Pittsburgh", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.9333333333333336, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.4792028210672552, "connected": -0.5130626086473504, "sparseWeighted": -0.3420417390982336 } }, { "gameId": "401864518", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "North Dakota State", "opponent": "UNLV", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 0.933657786885246, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.793567771322536, "connected": 0.7222105818477257, "sparseWeighted": 0.5158647013198041 } }, { "gameId": "401858257", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Stanford", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 3.49017199017199, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 2.135211718973516, "connected": 2.1029851176208467, "sparseWeighted": 1.5021322268720334 } }, { "gameId": "401856717", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Oklahoma", "opponent": "Texas", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -1.8880534670008355, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.06395898761565999, "connected": -0.2485623456556999, "sparseWeighted": -0.16570823043713326 } }, { "gameId": "401856824", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Oklahoma State", "opponent": "UCF", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 2.3819277108433736, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.405183243293588, "connected": -0.043385421379699696, "sparseWeighted": -0.02892361425313313 } }, { "gameId": "401856718", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Ole Miss", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 1.657172557172557, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.18989928463924527, "connected": 0.34719357723165395, "sparseWeighted": 0.23146238482110262 } }, { "gameId": "401858484", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Oregon", "opponent": "UCLA", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 4, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": -0.5414746543778808, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.31515852861315485, "connected": -0.3139232282010743, "sparseWeighted": -0.20928215213404955 } }, { "gameId": "401860902", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Oregon State", "opponent": "San Diego State", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": 4.013586956521739, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 1.4763175608464492, "connected": 1.3174547571075208, "sparseWeighted": 0.9410391122196577 } }, { "gameId": "401858485", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Southern California", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 6, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -1.1587301587301582, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": 0.2738098078325402, "connected": 0.14049186617107323, "sparseWeighted": 0.10035133297933803 } }, { "gameId": "401858258", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Syracuse", "opponent": "Virginia", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 4, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 4, "weight": 0.6666666666666666, "actual": 0.007538802660754129, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.1336446357873245, "connected": -0.0784573965263825, "sparseWeighted": -0.05230493101758833 } }, { "gameId": "401861964", "date": "2026-10-10", "team": "Temple", "opponent": "UConn", "division": "fbs", "lastTrainingDate": "2026-10-09", "trainingObservations": 804, "teamReferences": 5, "opponentReferences": 5, "references": 5, "weight": 0.7142857142857143, "actual": -0.7658730158730158, "predictions": { "neutral": 0, "simple": -0.2366430331945748, "connected": -0.10769846558107654, "sparseWeighted": -0.07692747541505468 } } ], "limitations": [ "Every target is predicted using strictly earlier game dates; the whole target day is excluded.", "This is a historical replay using finalized source statistics, not a prospective holdout or historically versioned pregame feed.", "Candidate settings were developed after this checkpoint was available. These results are diagnostic, not independent confirmation.", "Predicting yards/play differential tests the opponent-reference mechanism, not final résumé rankings, wins, player safety, or agreement with AP.", "Connected and sparse-weighted predictions are mechanism diagnostics, not the candidate 0–100 grade or a new ranking formula.", "No FCS-versus-FCS statistics were added. Sparse coverage remains unresolved; neutral priors are explicit, not invented observations.", "One checkpoint and one named source scenario are tested. Alternative-source and multi-season sensitivity remain untested.", "No parameter search or winner-based tuning was performed; no model is promoted from this report." ] }