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"opponent": "Florida Atlantic", "gameId": "401862782", "date": "2026-09-26", "margin": -28, "division": "fbs", "offenseYpp": 6.036363636363636, "allowedYpp": 6.370786516853933, "betaGrade": 29.794257444630322, "expectedOffense": 5.610536342864858, "expectedAllowed": 5.921748357069878, "offenseEvidence": 0.11461527929375848, "defenseEvidence": -0.7602501739890748, "raw": -0.32281744734765816, "bounded": -0.32281744734765816, "references": 4, "reliability": 0.6666666666666666, "adjustedRaw": -0.21521163156510542, "priorOnly": false, "grade": 41.741109036101534 }, { "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponent": "South Alabama", "gameId": "401871089", "date": "2026-10-03", "margin": -17, "division": "fbs", "offenseYpp": 6.405797101449275, "allowedYpp": 8.76923076923077, "betaGrade": 2.251810357913965, "expectedOffense": 5.742544749033964, "expectedAllowed": 6.551424265824856, "offenseEvidence": -0.14562716437558088, "defenseEvidence": -3.0266860201968058, "raw": -1.5861565922861933, "bounded": -1.5861565922861933, "references": 5, "reliability": 0.7142857142857143, "adjustedRaw": -1.1329689944901382, "priorOnly": false, "grade": 13.615757702287965 } ] }, "unchangedComponents": { "qualityWins": 0, "strengthOfRecord": 8.921622, "strengthOfSchedule": 39.44666, "roadNeutral": 0, "lossImpact": 3.091916, "winControl": 19.070416, "conferenceChampionship": 0 }, "recordFoundation": 0.4, "headToHeadCredit": 0 } ], "limitations": [ "Only FBS-connected games are available; FCS-versus-FCS references are not reconstructed.", "Every graded game is excluded from its own opponent fit, but later games within this checkpoint remain available: retrospective cross-fitting, not a vintage or independent holdout.", "Sparse or disconnected effects shrink to a neutral prior. A prior-only game supplies neutral evidence; this is not a zero fill for missing source statistics.", "Uses the archived Beta display scale for comparability. The new raw metric has not been independently calibrated.", "Only direct 15% performance changes; opponent values, other components, record foundation and head-to-head remain archived.", "Uses the named provisional Beta source scenario; alternative-source sensitivity is not yet established.", "Parameters are development presets, not fitted to schools, conferences or AP order. Lower FCS grades and smaller movement do not establish greater accuracy." ] }