{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "id": "beta-versus-current-nrr-2026-v1",
  "status": "registered_no_future_predictions_or_results",
  "frozenAt": "2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z",
  "evaluateThrough": "2026-12-07T23:59:59.999Z",
  "baseline": "published NRR v0.57 performance component",
  "challenger": "common-opponent-efficiency-trial-v1 performance component",
  "rankingContribution": 0,
  "minimumEligibleGames": 200,
  "minimumGameDates": 8,
  "initialPairedCheckpoint": {
    "season": 2026,
    "checkpointId": "ap-week-7",
    "cutoff": "2026-10-11T03:59:59.999Z",
    "currentSnapshotSha256": "939607628ec44075167051c405bafb75fe488739bc872b28998ed2c24375148b",
    "betaSnapshotSha256": "1304df0cc54dd0dc5dcec023462b64d966f3c8dfb1094332331979040cad54a1"
  },
  "implementationSha256": {
    "scripts/evaluate-complete-candidate.mjs": "c4e60ecd780041adefb058b46df4d382d82a52a05a3f839defd2a2d5dfe50f39",
    "scripts/audit-candidate-reliability.mjs": "05b1cad6d76a636c70760c36081b83eff0c9a124e4ecea1b79978f68e7402381"
  },
  "policy": {
    "target": "home offensive yards per play minus away offensive yards per play",
    "eligibleGames": "completed FBS-versus-FBS games with verified yards and plays for both teams; one home-minus-away observation per game",
    "cutoff": "latest checked current-NRR and Beta snapshots with the identical checkpoint and cutoff strictly before the whole target game date",
    "predictors": "the same four archived quality-win, adjusted-record, loss-integrity and win-control controls plus either the current or Beta performance operand; all team differences oriented home minus away",
    "training": "use the frozen fitForecast and forecast implementation; expanding history using only completed games before the target date; identical eligible training games, ridge penalty 4 and minimum 40 training games for both models",
    "metric": "paired mean absolute error in yards per play; gain equals current-NRR error minus Beta error, so positive favors Beta",
    "uncertainty": "2000 fixed-seed bootstrap resamples of whole game dates; 95% percentile interval",
    "sourceRule": "retain a canonical source and checksum for each result; holds and missing boxes stay excluded, never zero-filled",
    "noPollTuning": true
  },
  "successRule": "At least 200 eligible unique future games on at least eight dates, positive paired error gain and a 95% date-bootstrap lower bound above zero. This forecast diagnostic alone cannot promote the rankings.",
  "changeRule": "Do not overwrite this protocol, backdate predictions, select a better-performing scale, or tune on future results. Any method revision needs a new protocol and a fresh future horizon.",
  "remainingGates": [
    "independent receipt timing and source authenticity review",
    "full eligible-game and missing-data reconciliation",
    "whole-Index and subgroup review against current NRR",
    "reliable weekly refresh, monitored source holds and rollback"
  ],
  "protocolSha256": "2aa5d1651f125ae7c59e436f1719756c1cb6ed3ba4680909f8f2a716fd9c41e6"
}