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No alternative statistics were guessed." }, "missingReferences": { "status": "not_resolved", "reason": "These sources contain FBS-connected games, not a verified complete FCS-versus-FCS schedule and statistical inventory. No external reference games were added." } }, "limitations": [ "Reference fits are rebuilt from games strictly before each archived checkpoint, excluding both views of the graded game. No target-day or later game informs a forecast.", "This reconstructs the full Candidate bounded evidence, opponent weight, team weight and display mapping at historical checkpoints; finalized archives are not historically versioned feeds.", "Forecasts use the most recent prior checkpoint, not a continuously updated daily ranking. Historical 2024/2025 component coverage begins in November.", "Only games with archived NRR components for both sides are eligible. Outside-inventory opponents are excluded from forecasts, but remain in reference fits and team grades.", "The forecast target is yards/play differential, not game winners, AP agreement or the correct résumé ranking order.", "The controls-only forecast uses quality wins, adjusted record, loss integrity and win control. Adding performance tests descriptive predictive value, not independence of the complete NRR Index. Conference titles are not forecast controls.", "All forecast fits use earlier target dates across the available seasons. These are expanding-history tests, not leave-one-season-out tests. Models use the same eligible games.", "Three predeclared display-scale factors are exploratory comparisons. None is selected from these results. Date-bootstrap ranges do not resolve repeated-team dependence.", "No external reference games or alternative game-stat scenarios were verified or added. Those gates and untouched prospective evaluation remain open." ], "nextDecision": "Do not promote or choose a scale from this retrospective report. Use the frozen factor-1 protocol for a future receipt-backed evaluation; require source gates and full Index review before publication." }