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2.82339122059188 } ], "limitations": [ "This is one retrospective Week 7 snapshot, not a held-out validation of the full Candidate grade.", "The inherited Beta normal-CDF scale is a display mapping, not a probability, accuracy percentage or percentile in the Candidate population. No replacement scale is fitted here.", "Stage grades expose transformation effects with existing reference fits frozen; unbounded stages are not alternative ranking proposals.", "Aggregation omissions reuse frozen checkpoint game traces. They do not refit opponent effects and are not causal win or loss values.", "Correlations use all 138 teams, not just the Top 25. They are descriptive overlap, not proof of double counting or independent value. Constant components have unavailable correlations.", "Coverage and game-count groups mix schedules, team quality and source availability; differences do not isolate a coverage effect.", "Later games within this checkpoint inform opponent fits; missing reference games and source alternatives remain unresolved." ], "nextBatch": [ "Reconstruct complete Candidate team grades at chronological historical checkpoints with earlier-only inputs.", "Compare locked scale choices and aggregation rules against a predefined target on untouched dates; do not select from this Week 7 distribution or AP order.", "Test incremental value beyond existing components with season/date-held-out comparisons before changing weights." ] }