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"2026-09-25", "gain": -0.033437012796277164 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "gain": -0.032931547946446676 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "gain": -0.03154216159317471 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "gain": -0.03816092731919737 }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "gain": -0.043049887449289205 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "gain": -0.032909144070141776 }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "gain": -0.03589429811912861 }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "gain": -0.0322118245811842 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "gain": -0.03049982699518566 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "gain": -0.02241637931434731 } ] } ] } ] } ], "promotionGates": [ { "gate": "Reproducible historical mechanism tests", "status": "checked", "next": "Retain hashed inputs, target-day exclusion and uniform rules." }, { "gate": "Verified missing opponent references", "status": "open", "next": "Obtain and reconcile source-backed FCS-versus-FCS game statistics; do not invent neutral observations." }, { "gate": "Alternative-source sensitivity", "status": "open", "next": "Rebuild from every documented game-stat scenario, not archived rank ranges alone." }, { "gate": "Full candidate-grade calibration", "status": "open", "next": "Validate the bounded game evidence, team aggregation and 0–100 conversion, not just this differential predictor." }, { "gate": "Overlap with existing résumé components", "status": "open", "next": "Check interaction with schedule adjustment, quality wins and loss integrity in the complete Index." }, { "gate": "Untouched prospective evaluation", "status": "open", "next": "Lock policy and evaluation criteria before future outcomes; no retuning on the test set." } ], "limitations": [ "Date-block bootstrap ranges are approximate retrospective diagnostics, not independent confirmation or probability that a ranking is correct.", "Games on a date are resampled together; repeated-team dependence across dates remains.", "2024/2025 Selection Sunday and 2026 Week 7 have different sample maturity; no pooled cross-season accuracy claim.", "The same 1,921 historical games are reused from the previous report. No new independent games or sources were collected.", "Subgroup checks are exploratory; no team, conference or AP-order adjustment is selected.", "This audits a yards/play differential predictor, not Current NRR, archived Beta or the candidate’s complete score formula.", "Missing-source and prospective gates remain open even when an error range stays above zero." ] }