{
  "version": "1.0",
  "published": "2026-09-03",
  "status": "validation-only",
  "modelVersion": "NRR v0.55",
  "summary": {
    "checkpointsAudited": 12,
    "lineGamesAudited": 1602,
    "averageLineCoveragePct": 99.8,
    "meanOpponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.907,
    "meanScheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.943,
    "meanLossOpponentCorrelation": 0.916,
    "averageTop25Agreement": 20.5
  },
  "method": [
    "Use historical closing point spreads only from completed FBS-versus-FBS games available before each NRR checkpoint.",
    "Estimate one national team-strength scale from the spread network with the same equation for every team and conference, plus one neutral-site-aware home-field term.",
    "Compare market-derived strength with NRR Opponent Value, loss-opponent strength, and full-slate Strength of Schedule. No betting value changes a team score, rank, quality-win designation, or loss cost."
  ],
  "guardrails": [
    "Preserve a discrete national Top-25 qualification boundary; market evidence may test the shape below it but cannot erase the public cutoff.",
    "No conference, school, brand, recruiting, or named-matchup adjustment is permitted.",
    "Do not use market lines as a direct NRR input unless a later versioned backtest proves an accomplishment-based use that survives source-loss, provider-change, bias, and availability tests."
  ],
  "selectionSunday2025": {
    "lineGames": 761,
    "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.81,
    "examples": [
      {
        "team": "LSU",
        "opponentValue": 68.07,
        "marketPowerMargin": 12.44,
        "lineGames": 11
      },
      {
        "team": "Michigan",
        "opponentValue": 66.63,
        "marketPowerMargin": 14.45,
        "lineGames": 12
      },
      {
        "team": "Tennessee",
        "opponentValue": 60.96,
        "marketPowerMargin": 14.47,
        "lineGames": 11
      },
      {
        "team": "Arizona",
        "opponentValue": 60.28,
        "marketPowerMargin": 6.47,
        "lineGames": 11
      },
      {
        "team": "Kentucky",
        "opponentValue": 57.27,
        "marketPowerMargin": 5.26,
        "lineGames": 11
      }
    ],
    "largestStandardizedDisagreements": [
      {
        "team": "Kent State",
        "opponentValue": 31.05,
        "marketPowerMargin": -22.53,
        "standardizedGap": 1.16
      },
      {
        "team": "Stanford",
        "opponentValue": 47.79,
        "marketPowerMargin": -9.08,
        "standardizedGap": 0.91
      },
      {
        "team": "TCU",
        "opponentValue": 46.78,
        "marketPowerMargin": 9.17,
        "standardizedGap": -0.85
      },
      {
        "team": "Buffalo",
        "opponentValue": 22.58,
        "marketPowerMargin": -7.28,
        "standardizedGap": -0.76
      },
      {
        "team": "SMU",
        "opponentValue": 48.86,
        "marketPowerMargin": 9.47,
        "standardizedGap": -0.75
      },
      {
        "team": "Washington",
        "opponentValue": 51.37,
        "marketPowerMargin": 10.86,
        "standardizedGap": -0.73
      },
      {
        "team": "UAB",
        "opponentValue": 35.27,
        "marketPowerMargin": -14.83,
        "standardizedGap": 0.7
      },
      {
        "team": "Oklahoma",
        "opponentValue": 82.18,
        "marketPowerMargin": 15.43,
        "standardizedGap": 0.69
      },
      {
        "team": "BYU",
        "opponentValue": 71.82,
        "marketPowerMargin": 8.96,
        "standardizedGap": 0.67
      },
      {
        "team": "Indiana",
        "opponentValue": 92.11,
        "marketPowerMargin": 21.96,
        "standardizedGap": 0.67
      }
    ]
  },
  "checkpoints": [
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-1",
      "weekLabel": "First CFP",
      "lineGames": 507,
      "fbsGames": 510,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.4,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 3.02,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.877,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.903,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.905,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.881
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-2",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 2",
      "lineGames": 557,
      "fbsGames": 560,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.5,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.95,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.88,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.907,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.925,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.885
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-3",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 3",
      "lineGames": 610,
      "fbsGames": 613,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.5,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.93,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.895,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.921,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.939,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.902
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-4",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 4",
      "lineGames": 672,
      "fbsGames": 675,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.6,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.8,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.892,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.922,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.935,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.903
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-5",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 5",
      "lineGames": 738,
      "fbsGames": 742,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.5,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.67,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.904,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.925,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.948,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.912
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "checkpoint": "selection",
      "weekLabel": "Selection Sunday",
      "lineGames": 747,
      "fbsGames": 751,
      "lineCoveragePct": 99.5,
      "teamsCompared": 134,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.65,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.902,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.923,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.944,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.909
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-1",
      "weekLabel": "First CFP",
      "lineGames": 516,
      "fbsGames": 516,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.97,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.902,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.904,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.934,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.918
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-2",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 2",
      "lineGames": 567,
      "fbsGames": 567,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.95,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.921,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.92,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.944,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.932
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-3",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 3",
      "lineGames": 625,
      "fbsGames": 625,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 3,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.921,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.926,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.955,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.935
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-4",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 4",
      "lineGames": 685,
      "fbsGames": 685,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.94,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.924,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.925,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.955,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.934
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "cfp-5",
      "weekLabel": "CFP 5",
      "lineGames": 752,
      "fbsGames": 752,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.82,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.933,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.936,
      "top25Agreement": 21,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.962,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.942
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "checkpoint": "selection",
      "weekLabel": "Selection Sunday",
      "lineGames": 761,
      "fbsGames": 761,
      "lineCoveragePct": 100,
      "teamsCompared": 136,
      "estimatedHomeFieldAdvantage": 2.81,
      "opponentValueRankCorrelation": 0.932,
      "opponentValueLinearCorrelation": 0.934,
      "top25Agreement": 20,
      "scheduleStrengthCorrelation": 0.964,
      "lossOpponentCorrelation": 0.943
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "SportsDataverse historical betting files",
      "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data/releases/tag/espn_cfb_betting",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0"
    },
    {
      "label": "SportsDataverse schedule files",
      "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/cfbfastR-data/tree/main/schedules/csv",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0"
    }
  ]
}