{
  "id": "nrr-b04-source-review-addendum-20261015",
  "date": "2026-10-15",
  "status": "source review complete; follow-up work planned",
  "coverage": "All19 scanned PDF pages read via local OCR; key method and tournament-table pages visually checked. Historical computations not independently reproduced.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Who is Number 1 in College Football? ... And How Might We Decide?",
      "author": "Hal S. Stern",
      "year": 1995,
      "journal": "CHANCE8(3),7-14",
      "pdfPages": 8,
      "sha256": "e46e50db78a854ff2a44e2d4688a107584bc1ec9e6de0e9bd9ff032f5e30b4e7",
      "relevantPages": "PDF1-3,5-8",
      "use": "Distinguish strongest team, best season, rating units and ranking. Objective determines whether priors, recency or win bonuses are appropriate.",
      "action": "B05 reader questions: what is NRR measuring, is an Index gap a point spread, and what evidence would change the ordering?"
    },
    {
      "title": "How Accurately Can Sports Outcomes Be Predicted?",
      "author": "Hal S. Stern",
      "year": 1997,
      "journal": "CHANCE10(4),19-23",
      "pdfPages": 5,
      "sha256": "7f36d9664631ab7ff6269f548ef42fd588150f0ac945be495e27bc11f0e927ce",
      "relevantPages": "PDF1,3-5",
      "use": "Earlier-data training, later-game prediction and subsequent updating; separate winner accuracy and margin error. Its comparison samples differ, so a new comparison should use matched games.",
      "action": "Plan a separate winner/margin protocol with weekly cutoff and warm-up, matched baseline games, eligibility/coverage reporting. Keep current YPP beta experiment unchanged."
    },
    {
      "title": "Designing a College Football Playoff System",
      "authors": [
        "Bradley P. Carlin",
        "Hal S. Stern"
      ],
      "year": 1999,
      "journal": "CHANCE12(3),21-26",
      "pdfPages": 6,
      "sha256": "d44c02b5f7bcba0fcb6c2a30f17059a534db8fe6ec07a80516e6e4017d34e6f5",
      "relevantPages": "PDF3-6",
      "use": "Repeated schedule influence deserves inspection; tournament conclusions depend on fields, seeding, ratings and game probabilities.",
      "action": "B04c dependency map and separately specified ablations; B06/B09 consistent candidate pool and seeding/format comparisons with calibrated predictive strength and probability sensitivity."
    }
  ],
  "acceptance": {
    "B05": "Readers distinguish earned resume from strongest-team forecast and reject treating an NRR Index gap as predicted points. Record actual responses; no recruited-reader claim until observed.",
    "B04c": "Trace schedule inputs through QWD, SAR, foundation, losses and performance. Report fixed-context rescoring separately from complete-input refits, preserve input hashes and show rank/index effects. Correlation or shared inputs alone do not prove redundant credit; no automatic reweighting.",
    "B06_B09": "Freeze selection-date data, candidate pool, field-selection rules, predictive strength inputs and probabilities before comparison. Separate field selection, seeding, home advantage, reseeding and format effects. Show earned-seed rewards, strength-ranked title chances, games/travel/rest burdens and sensitivity. Do not translate NRR Index directly into point spreads."
  },
  "notAdopted": [
    "Historical accuracy as a universal modern ceiling or NRR correctness target",
    "Treating committee agreement as independent validation when standings are an input",
    "1999 field-size conclusions as proof for18 teams today",
    "1999 bowl attendance/revenue assumptions as current evidence",
    "Automatic numerical changes or retrospective alteration of the frozen beta/property experiments"
  ],
  "unchangedFrozenExperiment": "NRR_property_review_manifest.json and NRR_property_review_results.json retain their original timestamps, hashes and earlier source-coverage limitation; this addendum records its resolution.",
  "endorsement": "No author endorsement of NRR or BetterCFB is claimed."
}