{
  "id": "nrr-reader-examples-b05a-v1",
  "preparedOn": "2026-10-15",
  "model": "NRR v0.57 canonical defaults",
  "division": "FBS",
  "season": 2025,
  "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday",
  "cutoff": "2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z",
  "weights": {
    "qualityWins": 35,
    "strengthOfRecord": 25,
    "teamPerformance": 15,
    "lossImpact": 15,
    "winControl": 7.5,
    "conferenceChampionship": 2.5
  },
  "formula": "Index = clamp(20 + 0.85 × (foundation × weighted composite + head-to-head credit), 0, 100)",
  "provenance": {
    "archivePath": "public/data/rankings/2025-selection.json",
    "archiveSha256": "9c53aec7cdf952851e52d9791c1c5d027772d4dd1229f2f0319b350c3725b22b",
    "modelPath": "scripts/build-ranking-backtest.mjs",
    "modelSha256": "fc2a2a3bb52fe527d08342c1e619f827714dbbd1d2c83ed9ffb2bc2bb86e887b",
    "builderSha256": "3f14a075b411de8d496bf478dfb35fd56b408f297bafb6011d7502a4380331ff"
  },
  "selection": "Purposefully selected for two explanatory contrasts. Historical development data, not a holdout or evidence of best weights.",
  "limits": [
    "Indices reconstructed from published six-decimal inputs; last-digit differences from a full-precision refit are possible.",
    "Only the four selected teams were checked for unique game IDs and record counts. This is not a full archive audit.",
    "Policy scenarios keep components, opponents, foundation and head-to-head fixed; no new weights are adopted.",
    "NRR Index units are not predicted points or win probabilities. No participant observations collected."
  ],
  "pairs": [
    {
      "id": "wins-and-losses",
      "teams": [
        {
          "team": "Notre Dame",
          "record": "10-2",
          "rank": 9,
          "foundation": 0.875057,
          "components": {
            "qualityWins": 67.15364,
            "strengthOfRecord": 78.375325,
            "teamPerformance": 85.159186,
            "strengthOfSchedule": 56.227159,
            "roadNeutral": 80,
            "lossImpact": 67.94105,
            "winControl": 79.468119,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "headToHeadCredit": 0,
          "contributions": {
            "qualityWins": 17.4820706703503,
            "strengthOfRecord": 14.573861313311562,
            "teamPerformance": 9.501190582509256,
            "lossImpact": 7.580167152205876,
            "winControl": 4.433119780246166,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "index": 73.57040949862315,
          "wins": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752871",
              "date": "2025-10-18",
              "opponent": "Southern California",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "34–24"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754597",
              "date": "2025-11-15",
              "opponent": "Pittsburgh",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "37–15"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752717",
              "date": "2025-09-27",
              "opponent": "Arkansas",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "56–13"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754562",
              "date": "2025-10-11",
              "opponent": "NC State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "36–7"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401757166",
              "date": "2025-11-09",
              "opponent": "Navy",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "49–10"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754614",
              "date": "2025-11-30",
              "opponent": "Stanford",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "49–20"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401757165",
              "date": "2025-10-04",
              "opponent": "Boise State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "28–7"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752848",
              "date": "2025-09-20",
              "opponent": "Purdue",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "56–30"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754604",
              "date": "2025-11-22",
              "opponent": "Syracuse",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "70–7"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754583",
              "date": "2025-11-01",
              "opponent": "Boston College",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "25–10"
            }
          ],
          "losses": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752707",
              "date": "2025-09-13",
              "opponent": "Texas A&M",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "40–41"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401754522",
              "date": "2025-08-31",
              "opponent": "Miami",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "24–27"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "team": "Alabama",
          "record": "10-3",
          "rank": 12,
          "foundation": 0.856209,
          "components": {
            "qualityWins": 89.356819,
            "strengthOfRecord": 77.663371,
            "teamPerformance": 72.412111,
            "strengthOfSchedule": 58.945145,
            "roadNeutral": 66.666667,
            "lossImpact": 18.992322,
            "winControl": 62.394465,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "headToHeadCredit": 0,
          "contributions": {
            "qualityWins": 22.761163510153374,
            "strengthOfRecord": 14.130416409364534,
            "teamPerformance": 7.904987396267871,
            "lossImpact": 2.073328120980495,
            "winControl": 3.405697283303043,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "index": 70.27559272006931,
          "wins": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752718",
              "date": "2025-09-27",
              "opponent": "Georgia",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "24–21"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752726",
              "date": "2025-10-04",
              "opponent": "Vanderbilt",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "30–14"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752734",
              "date": "2025-10-11",
              "opponent": "Missouri",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "27–24"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752784",
              "date": "2025-11-30",
              "opponent": "Auburn",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "27–20"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752738",
              "date": "2025-10-18",
              "opponent": "Tennessee",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "37–20"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752759",
              "date": "2025-11-09",
              "opponent": "LSU",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "20–9"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752751",
              "date": "2025-10-25",
              "opponent": "South Carolina",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "29–22"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752696",
              "date": "2025-09-13",
              "opponent": "Wisconsin",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "38–14"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752681",
              "date": "2025-09-06",
              "opponent": "Louisiana-Monroe",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "73–0"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752773",
              "date": "2025-11-22",
              "opponent": "Eastern Illinois",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "56–0"
            }
          ],
          "losses": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752665",
              "date": "2025-08-30",
              "opponent": "Florida State",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "17–31"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752765",
              "date": "2025-11-15",
              "opponent": "Oklahoma",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "21–23"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401777351",
              "date": "2025-12-06",
              "opponent": "Georgia",
              "venue": "neutral",
              "score": "7–28"
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "gap": 3.2948167785538374,
      "variantWeights": {
        "qualityWins": 45,
        "strengthOfRecord": 25,
        "teamPerformance": 15,
        "lossImpact": 5,
        "winControl": 7.5,
        "conferenceChampionship": 2.5
      },
      "variantIndices": [
        73.5118420648717,
        75.39656354707853
      ],
      "variantGap": -1.8847214822068281
    },
    {
      "id": "same-record",
      "teams": [
        {
          "team": "Oklahoma",
          "record": "10-2",
          "rank": 8,
          "foundation": 0.875573,
          "components": {
            "qualityWins": 86.015002,
            "strengthOfRecord": 81.236197,
            "teamPerformance": 70.408484,
            "strengthOfSchedule": 56.429171,
            "roadNeutral": 80,
            "lossImpact": 58.050336,
            "winControl": 61.072642,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "headToHeadCredit": 0,
          "contributions": {
            "qualityWins": 22.405442970478433,
            "strengthOfRecord": 15.114746902124716,
            "teamPerformance": 7.86009036406983,
            "lossImpact": 6.48048162242232,
            "winControl": 3.408939218833958,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "index": 75.26970107792926,
          "wins": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752765",
              "date": "2025-11-15",
              "opponent": "Alabama",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "23–21"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752690",
              "date": "2025-09-06",
              "opponent": "Michigan",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "24–13"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752757",
              "date": "2025-11-01",
              "opponent": "Tennessee",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "33–27"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752789",
              "date": "2025-11-29",
              "opponent": "LSU",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "17–13"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752778",
              "date": "2025-11-22",
              "opponent": "Missouri",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "17–6"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752744",
              "date": "2025-10-18",
              "opponent": "South Carolina",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "26–7"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752714",
              "date": "2025-09-20",
              "opponent": "Auburn",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "24–17"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752703",
              "date": "2025-09-13",
              "opponent": "Temple",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "42–3"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752729",
              "date": "2025-10-04",
              "opponent": "Kent State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "44–0"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752675",
              "date": "2025-08-30",
              "opponent": "Illinois State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "35–3"
            }
          ],
          "losses": [
            {
              "gameId": "401752736",
              "date": "2025-10-11",
              "opponent": "Texas",
              "venue": "neutral",
              "score": "6–23"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752750",
              "date": "2025-10-25",
              "opponent": "Ole Miss",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "26–34"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "team": "Utah",
          "record": "10-2",
          "rank": 15,
          "foundation": 0.860462,
          "components": {
            "qualityWins": 50.614999,
            "strengthOfRecord": 77.714436,
            "teamPerformance": 76.427388,
            "strengthOfSchedule": 52.427527,
            "roadNeutral": 83.333333,
            "lossImpact": 59.425171,
            "winControl": 75.276118,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "headToHeadCredit": 0,
          "contributions": {
            "qualityWins": 12.956804272687553,
            "strengthOfRecord": 14.209942793754301,
            "teamPerformance": 8.384765049490136,
            "lossImpact": 6.519470439847754,
            "winControl": 4.129230239215394,
            "conferenceChampionship": 0
          },
          "index": 66.20021279499514,
          "wins": [
            {
              "gameId": "401756922",
              "date": "2025-10-12",
              "opponent": "Arizona State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "42–10"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756942",
              "date": "2025-11-02",
              "opponent": "Cincinnati",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "45–14"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756964",
              "date": "2025-11-28",
              "opponent": "Kansas",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "31–21"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756949",
              "date": "2025-11-16",
              "opponent": "Baylor",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "55–28"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756960",
              "date": "2025-11-22",
              "opponent": "Kansas State",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "51–47"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756908",
              "date": "2025-09-27",
              "opponent": "West Virginia",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "48–14"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401752800",
              "date": "2025-08-31",
              "opponent": "UCLA",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "43–10"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756934",
              "date": "2025-10-26",
              "opponent": "Colorado",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "53–7"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756895",
              "date": "2025-09-14",
              "opponent": "Wyoming",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "31–6"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756887",
              "date": "2025-09-06",
              "opponent": "Cal Poly",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "63–9"
            }
          ],
          "losses": [
            {
              "gameId": "401756901",
              "date": "2025-09-20",
              "opponent": "Texas Tech",
              "venue": "home",
              "score": "10–34"
            },
            {
              "gameId": "401756924",
              "date": "2025-10-19",
              "opponent": "BYU",
              "venue": "road",
              "score": "21–24"
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "gap": 9.069488282934117,
      "variantWeights": {
        "qualityWins": 5,
        "strengthOfRecord": 25,
        "teamPerformance": 45,
        "lossImpact": 15,
        "winControl": 7.5,
        "conferenceChampionship": 2.5
      },
      "variantIndices": [
        71.7852164028017,
        71.86391066024322
      ],
      "variantGap": -0.07869425744152636
    }
  ]
}