{ "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T11:49:44.431Z", "status": "historical-validation-passed", "modelVersion": "NRR v0.55", "question": "Does an 80% evolving / 20% game-time opponent-quality blend reprice wins and losses logically without erasing matchup context?", "formula": { "currentOpponentQualityWeight": 0.8, "gameTimeOpponentQualityWeight": 0.2, "equation": "game opponent value = 0.80 × checkpoint opponent value + 0.20 × frozen pregame opponent value", "appliedTo": [ "Quality Win Depth", "Loss Integrity" ], "symmetry": "The same blended Opponent Value is supplied to the win and loss scoring functions." }, "validation": { "seasons": [ 2024, 2025 ], "trajectoriesEvaluated": 3235, "examplesSelected": 16, "intuitiveDirectionRate": 0.97, "directionExceptions": [ { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Georgia Tech", "opponent": "Georgia State", "opponentQualityChange": -7.12, "contributionChange": 1.04 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Sam Houston", "opponent": "Rice", "opponentQualityChange": -1.29, "contributionChange": 0.12 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Michigan", "opponent": "Fresno State", "opponentQualityChange": -2.59, "contributionChange": 0.72 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Wisconsin", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "opponentQualityChange": -6.12, "contributionChange": 0.09 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "FIU", "opponentQualityChange": -18.11, "contributionChange": 0.94 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Southern California", "opponent": "Utah State", "opponentQualityChange": -1.72, "contributionChange": 0.19 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Bowling Green", "opponentQualityChange": -0.54, "contributionChange": 0.38 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Michigan State", "opponent": "Maryland", "opponentQualityChange": 0.11, "contributionChange": -0.2 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponent": "UAB", "opponentQualityChange": 6.22, "contributionChange": -0.3 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "FIU", "opponent": "Central Michigan", "opponentQualityChange": 3.26, "contributionChange": -0.4 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Purdue", "opponentQualityChange": -0.02, "contributionChange": 0.65 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "NC State", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "opponentQualityChange": -2.09, "contributionChange": 0.24 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Western Kentucky", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "opponentQualityChange": -7.25, "contributionChange": 0.16 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Kent State", "opponentQualityChange": -11.69, "contributionChange": 0.38 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Indiana", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": -0.29, "contributionChange": 0.24 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Oregon State", "opponent": "Purdue", "opponentQualityChange": 2.21, "contributionChange": -0.29 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Jacksonville State", "opponent": "Southern Miss", "opponentQualityChange": -1, "contributionChange": 0.25 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Tulsa", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "opponentQualityChange": 2.86, "contributionChange": -0.15 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Ohio", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -3.19, "contributionChange": 0.78 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "West Virginia", "opponent": "Oklahoma State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.08, "contributionChange": -0.37 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Northern Illinois", "opponent": "UMass", "opponentQualityChange": 5.9, "contributionChange": -0.13 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Bowling Green", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -2.65, "contributionChange": 0.28 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Western Michigan", "opponent": "Ball State", "opponentQualityChange": -2.72, "contributionChange": 0.13 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "San Diego State", "opponent": "Hawaii", "opponentQualityChange": 7.46, "contributionChange": -0.52 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Hawaii", "opponentQualityChange": 1.52, "contributionChange": -0.13 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "UNLV", "opponent": "Utah State", "opponentQualityChange": -0.89, "contributionChange": 0.07 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Texas State", "opponent": "Arkansas State", "opponentQualityChange": -3.02, "contributionChange": 0.09 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Old Dominion", "opponent": "Georgia State", "opponentQualityChange": -0.41, "contributionChange": 0.28 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Louisiana Tech", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "opponentQualityChange": -4.4, "contributionChange": 0.13 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Washington State", "opponent": "Hawaii", "opponentQualityChange": 0.61, "contributionChange": -0.46 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Marshall", "opponent": "Georgia State", "opponentQualityChange": -0.34, "contributionChange": 0.23 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Central Michigan", "opponentQualityChange": 2.21, "contributionChange": -0.37 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "UTEP", "opponent": "FIU", "opponentQualityChange": -1.8, "contributionChange": 0.13 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Sam Houston", "opponent": "FIU", "opponentQualityChange": -1.05, "contributionChange": 0.11 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Miami (OH)", "opponent": "Central Michigan", "opponentQualityChange": 1.61, "contributionChange": -0.12 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Middle Tennessee", "opponent": "UTEP", "opponentQualityChange": 2.44, "contributionChange": -0.07 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Penn State", "opponent": "Washington", "opponentQualityChange": 0.04, "contributionChange": -0.11 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Georgia Tech", "opponent": "Miami", "opponentQualityChange": -0.04, "contributionChange": 0.07 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Ohio", "opponent": "Kent State", "opponentQualityChange": -3.06, "contributionChange": 0.45 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "Florida Atlantic", "opponentQualityChange": -4.92, "contributionChange": 0.1 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Northern Illinois", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -0.42, "contributionChange": 0.05 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Jacksonville State", "opponent": "FIU", "opponentQualityChange": -2.25, "contributionChange": 0.08 }, { "season": 2024, "type": "win", "team": "Florida", "opponent": "Ole Miss", "opponentQualityChange": 0.05, "contributionChange": -0.16 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Arizona", "opponent": "Hawaii", "opponentQualityChange": -1.92, "contributionChange": 0.81 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Michigan State", "opponent": "Western Michigan", "opponentQualityChange": -0.27, "contributionChange": 0.45 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "LSU", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech", "opponentQualityChange": -5.11, "contributionChange": 0.1 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Nebraska", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -8.63, "contributionChange": 0.41 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Auburn", "opponent": "Ball State", "opponentQualityChange": -2.89, "contributionChange": 0.81 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Southern California", "opponent": "Georgia Southern", "opponentQualityChange": -3.35, "contributionChange": 0.53 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Wisconsin", "opponent": "Middle Tennessee", "opponentQualityChange": 3.61, "contributionChange": -0.05 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Alabama", "opponent": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponentQualityChange": -3.44, "contributionChange": 0.65 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "North Carolina", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": 3, "contributionChange": -0.1 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Navy", "opponent": "Tulsa", "opponentQualityChange": 0.43, "contributionChange": -0.17 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Utah State", "opponent": "Air Force", "opponentQualityChange": 1.31, "contributionChange": -0.43 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Iowa", "opponent": "UMass", "opponentQualityChange": -2.46, "contributionChange": 0.58 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "Coastal Carolina", "opponentQualityChange": -0.72, "contributionChange": 0.43 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "UAB", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -7.93, "contributionChange": 0.38 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "UCF", "opponent": "North Carolina", "opponentQualityChange": 1.77, "contributionChange": -0.26 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Tennessee", "opponent": "UAB", "opponentQualityChange": -0.11, "contributionChange": 0.29 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Liberty", "opponentQualityChange": -2.29, "contributionChange": 0.12 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Rice", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": 5.52, "contributionChange": -1.03 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Kennesaw State", "opponent": "Arkansas State", "opponentQualityChange": -0.07, "contributionChange": 0.63 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Georgia Southern", "opponentQualityChange": -0.53, "contributionChange": 0.47 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Southern Miss", "opponent": "Jacksonville State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.13, "contributionChange": -0.3 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Toledo", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -1.76, "contributionChange": 0.43 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Memphis", "opponent": "Tulsa", "opponentQualityChange": 2.58, "contributionChange": -0.11 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Florida Atlantic", "opponent": "Rice", "opponentQualityChange": 1.21, "contributionChange": -0.36 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Louisiana", "opponentQualityChange": -1.45, "contributionChange": 0.15 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Army", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": 7.47, "contributionChange": -0.17 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Miami (OH)", "opponent": "Akron", "opponentQualityChange": -3.67, "contributionChange": 0.41 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Minnesota", "opponent": "Nebraska", "opponentQualityChange": 0.15, "contributionChange": -0.12 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Temple", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": 7.82, "contributionChange": -0.42 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Appalachian State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.9, "contributionChange": -0.1 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Toledo", "opponent": "Kent State", "opponentQualityChange": -4.15, "contributionChange": 0.27 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Georgia Southern", "opponent": "Georgia State", "opponentQualityChange": -1.16, "contributionChange": 0.18 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Liberty", "opponent": "New Mexico State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.78, "contributionChange": -0.21 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "UTEP", "opponent": "Sam Houston", "opponentQualityChange": 0.32, "contributionChange": -0.14 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Troy", "opponent": "Louisiana", "opponentQualityChange": 0.3, "contributionChange": -0.2 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Temple", "opponent": "Tulsa", "opponentQualityChange": 0.24, "contributionChange": -0.13 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Missouri State", "opponent": "New Mexico State", "opponentQualityChange": 2.74, "contributionChange": -0.08 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Memphis", "opponent": "Rice", "opponentQualityChange": 1.2, "contributionChange": -0.39 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Kentucky", "opponent": "Auburn", "opponentQualityChange": -0.11, "contributionChange": 0.2 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Louisiana Tech", "opponent": "Sam Houston", "opponentQualityChange": 0.64, "contributionChange": -0.1 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Army", "opponent": "Air Force", "opponentQualityChange": 0.66, "contributionChange": -0.13 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Louisiana", "opponent": "South Alabama", "opponentQualityChange": 0.22, "contributionChange": -0.14 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "East Carolina", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponentQualityChange": 3.37, "contributionChange": -0.12 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Ohio", "opponent": "Miami (OH)", "opponentQualityChange": 1.97, "contributionChange": -0.14 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Coastal Carolina", "opponent": "Georgia State", "opponentQualityChange": 1.26, "contributionChange": -0.07 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Toledo", "opponent": "Northern Illinois", "opponentQualityChange": -1.5, "contributionChange": 0.2 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Bowling Green", "opponentQualityChange": -0.63, "contributionChange": 0.19 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Eastern Michigan", "opponent": "Ball State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.39, "contributionChange": -0.24 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Nevada", "opponent": "San Jose State", "opponentQualityChange": 0.67, "contributionChange": -0.14 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "North Texas", "opponent": "Rice", "opponentQualityChange": 0.6, "contributionChange": -0.08 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "South Carolina", "opponent": "Coastal Carolina", "opponentQualityChange": 1.58, "contributionChange": -0.11 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Boise State", "opponent": "Colorado State", "opponentQualityChange": -0.12, "contributionChange": 0.06 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Texas State", "opponent": "Louisiana-Monroe", "opponentQualityChange": -0.31, "contributionChange": 0.24 }, { "season": 2025, "type": "win", "team": "Akron", "opponent": "Bowling Green", "opponentQualityChange": -0.58, "contributionChange": 0.06 } ], "meanAbsoluteCurrentOpponentStep": 1.441, "meanAbsoluteBlendedOpponentStep": 1.153, "maximumCurrentOpponentStep": 29.22, "maximumBlendedOpponentStep": 23.38, "interpretation": "Because the pregame value is frozen, the 20% anchor reduces every later opponent-quality repricing step by exactly one fifth while preserving 80% of new information." }, "examples": [ { "category": "Win Aged Worse", "season": 2024, "team": "UConn", "opponent": "Florida Atlantic", "matchup": "UConn defeated Florida Atlantic (home)", "gameDate": "2024-09-21", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 4", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "initialContribution": 36.93, "finalContribution": 7.64, "contributionChange": -29.29, "opponentQualityChange": -25.01, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "1-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.176, "opponentNrrRank": 91, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51.05, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.25, "qualityWinGameValue": 36.93, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 6.709, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.684 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "2-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.784, "opponentNrrRank": 92, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.33, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 45.07, "qualityWinGameValue": 23.61, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 3.162, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.323 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "2-6", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.157, "opponentNrrRank": 108, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 35.05, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 38.45, "qualityWinGameValue": 12.15, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 1.309, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.134 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.313, "opponentNrrRank": 124, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 25.78, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 31.03, "qualityWinGameValue": 7.64, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.336, "opponentNrrRank": 124, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 26.04, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 52.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 31.24, "qualityWinGameValue": 7.64, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Worse", "season": 2024, "team": "Ohio State", "opponent": "Michigan State", "matchup": "Ohio State defeated Michigan State (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-09-28", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 5", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "initialContribution": 64.41, "finalContribution": 35.48, "contributionChange": -28.93, "opponentQualityChange": -12.12, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-6", "checkpoint": "AP Week 6", "releaseDate": "2024-09-29", "opponentRecord": "3-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 40.931, "opponentNrrRank": 42, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 57.33, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "blendedOpponentValue": 57.48, "qualityWinGameValue": 64.41, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 17.503, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 4.463 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "3-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 35.417, "opponentNrrRank": 58, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 52.95, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "blendedOpponentValue": 53.98, "qualityWinGameValue": 53.29, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 9.461, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 2.014 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "4-5", "opponentNrrIndex": 35.983, "opponentNrrRank": 52, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 55.05, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "blendedOpponentValue": 55.66, "qualityWinGameValue": 58.77, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 8.133, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.875 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 30.155, "opponentNrrRank": 70, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 45.27, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "blendedOpponentValue": 47.84, "qualityWinGameValue": 35.62, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 1.996, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.435 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 30.041, "opponentNrrRank": 72, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 45.21, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 58.1, "blendedOpponentValue": 47.79, "qualityWinGameValue": 35.48, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 1.966, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.429 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Worse", "season": 2025, "team": "Houston", "opponent": "Rice", "matchup": "Houston defeated Rice (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-06", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "initialContribution": 36.57, "finalContribution": 9.16, "contributionChange": -27.41, "opponentQualityChange": -19.26, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2025-09-07", "opponentRecord": "1-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 33.994, "opponentNrrRank": 62, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 50.62, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 49.13, "qualityWinGameValue": 36.57, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 6.376, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.626 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.736, "opponentNrrRank": 75, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 34.2, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 36, "qualityWinGameValue": 12.65, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0.824, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.21 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "3-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 25.078, "opponentNrrRank": 117, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 27.64, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 30.74, "qualityWinGameValue": 9.01, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "4-5", "opponentNrrIndex": 25.075, "opponentNrrRank": 119, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 30.16, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 32.76, "qualityWinGameValue": 9.15, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.257, "opponentNrrRank": 101, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 31.6, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 33.92, "qualityWinGameValue": 9.38, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0.07, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.013 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.083, "opponentNrrRank": 105, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 31.36, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 43.17, "blendedOpponentValue": 33.73, "qualityWinGameValue": 9.16, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0.038, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.007 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Worse", "season": 2025, "team": "Houston", "opponent": "Oregon State", "matchup": "Houston defeated Oregon State (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-27", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 5", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "initialContribution": 40.52, "finalContribution": 14.84, "contributionChange": -25.68, "opponentQualityChange": -14.95, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-6", "checkpoint": "AP Week 6", "releaseDate": "2025-09-28", "opponentRecord": "0-5", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.787, "opponentNrrRank": 122, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51.25, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.27, "qualityWinGameValue": 40.52, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 7.175, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.83 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "0-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.242, "opponentNrrRank": 126, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.17, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "blendedOpponentValue": 44.8, "qualityWinGameValue": 24.75, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 3.331, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.645 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "2-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.179, "opponentNrrRank": 93, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 41.63, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "blendedOpponentValue": 43.57, "qualityWinGameValue": 22.58, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 1.827, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.346 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "2-10", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.546, "opponentNrrRank": 96, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 36.13, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "blendedOpponentValue": 39.18, "qualityWinGameValue": 14.64, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0.906, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.165 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "2-10", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.544, "opponentNrrRank": 95, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 36.3, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 51.34, "blendedOpponentValue": 39.31, "qualityWinGameValue": 14.84, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 0.921, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.169 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Better", "season": 2024, "team": "Notre Dame", "opponent": "Texas A&M", "matchup": "Notre Dame defeated Texas A&M (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-08-31", "gameTimeSource": "Preseason AP baseline", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "initialContribution": 24.48, "finalContribution": 78.54, "contributionChange": 54.06, "opponentQualityChange": 23.76, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-2", "checkpoint": "AP Week 2", "releaseDate": "2024-09-03", "opponentRecord": "0-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.549, "opponentNrrRank": 97, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 40.4, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 44.63, "qualityWinGameValue": 24.48, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 4.151, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.058 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 47.528, "opponentNrrRank": 31, "opponentOfficialRank": 24, "currentOpponentValue": 54.53, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 55.93, "qualityWinGameValue": 57.45, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 14.609, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 2.685 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 65.789, "opponentNrrRank": 8, "opponentOfficialRank": 14, "currentOpponentValue": 70.97, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 69.09, "qualityWinGameValue": 85.66, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 35.143, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 7.572 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "7-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 64.066, "opponentNrrRank": 13, "opponentOfficialRank": 15, "currentOpponentValue": 70.14, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 68.42, "qualityWinGameValue": 84.85, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 30.838, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 7.042 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "8-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 56.585, "opponentNrrRank": 19, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 64.32, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 63.77, "qualityWinGameValue": 78.83, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 19.603, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 4.68 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "8-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 56.5, "opponentNrrRank": 21, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 64.16, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 61.55, "blendedOpponentValue": 63.64, "qualityWinGameValue": 78.54, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 19.029, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 4.542 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Better", "season": 2024, "team": "BYU", "opponent": "SMU", "matchup": "BYU defeated SMU (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-09-06", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "initialContribution": 29.23, "finalContribution": 82.64, "contributionChange": 53.41, "opponentQualityChange": 26.14, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2024-09-08", "opponentRecord": "2-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.793, "opponentNrrRank": 89, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 46.74, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 46.4, "qualityWinGameValue": 29.23, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 4.901, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.25 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 37.953, "opponentNrrRank": 48, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 49.8, "qualityWinGameValue": 37.17, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 4.931, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.258 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 57.32, "opponentNrrRank": 18, "opponentOfficialRank": 21, "currentOpponentValue": 60.09, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 57.08, "qualityWinGameValue": 60.3, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 12.384, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 3.158 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "8-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 68.574, "opponentNrrRank": 9, "opponentOfficialRank": 13, "currentOpponentValue": 66.82, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 62.46, "qualityWinGameValue": 74.29, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 22.113, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 5.639 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "11-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 69.364, "opponentNrrRank": 8, "opponentOfficialRank": 8, "currentOpponentValue": 73.78, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 68.03, "qualityWinGameValue": 83.38, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 28.601, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 6.266 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "11-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 66.569, "opponentNrrRank": 11, "opponentOfficialRank": 10, "currentOpponentValue": 72.88, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 45.03, "blendedOpponentValue": 67.31, "qualityWinGameValue": 82.64, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 27.993, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 6.145 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Better", "season": 2025, "team": "Baylor", "opponent": "SMU", "matchup": "Baylor defeated SMU (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-06", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "initialContribution": 9.97, "finalContribution": 55.92, "contributionChange": 45.95, "opponentQualityChange": 24.33, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2025-09-07", "opponentRecord": "1-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.148, "opponentNrrRank": 107, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 29.4, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 36.78, "qualityWinGameValue": 9.97, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 1.675, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.235 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "2-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.461, "opponentNrrRank": 77, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.79, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 48.3, "qualityWinGameValue": 31.7, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 5.762, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.588 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "4-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.89, "opponentNrrRank": 78, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.56, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 48.12, "qualityWinGameValue": 31.34, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 5.238, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 0.564 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "6-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 43.598, "opponentNrrRank": 37, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 52.69, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 55.41, "qualityWinGameValue": 53.16, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 12.363, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.594 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "8-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 45.02, "opponentNrrRank": 37, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 53.61, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 56.15, "qualityWinGameValue": 55.64, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 13.658, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.719 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "8-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 45.24, "opponentNrrRank": 37, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 53.73, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 66.33, "blendedOpponentValue": 56.25, "qualityWinGameValue": 55.92, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 13.835, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 1.739 } ] }, { "category": "Win Aged Better", "season": 2025, "team": "Florida State", "opponent": "Alabama", "matchup": "Florida State defeated Alabama (home)", "gameDate": "2025-08-30", "gameTimeSource": "Preseason AP baseline", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "initialContribution": 52.73, "finalContribution": 91.07, "contributionChange": 38.34, "opponentQualityChange": 29.79, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-2", "checkpoint": "AP Week 2", "releaseDate": "2025-09-02", "opponentRecord": "0-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 25.666, "opponentNrrRank": 99, "opponentOfficialRank": 21, "currentOpponentValue": 51.59, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 58.05, "qualityWinGameValue": 52.73, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 13.158, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 3.355 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "2-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 50.387, "opponentNrrRank": 33, "opponentOfficialRank": 17, "currentOpponentValue": 70.65, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 73.29, "qualityWinGameValue": 84.31, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 37.712, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 9.617 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 69.506, "opponentNrrRank": 7, "opponentOfficialRank": 6, "currentOpponentValue": 84.96, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 84.74, "qualityWinGameValue": 92.88, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 47.361, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 7.032 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "7-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 73.931, "opponentNrrRank": 7, "opponentOfficialRank": 4, "currentOpponentValue": 86.42, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 85.91, "qualityWinGameValue": 93.25, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 46.49, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 6.048 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "10-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 72.307, "opponentNrrRank": 12, "opponentOfficialRank": 9, "currentOpponentValue": 81.26, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 81.78, "qualityWinGameValue": 91.18, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 43.636, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 5.068 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "10-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 69.494, "opponentNrrRank": 12, "opponentOfficialRank": 9, "currentOpponentValue": 81.38, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 83.88, "blendedOpponentValue": 81.88, "qualityWinGameValue": 91.07, "qualityWinDepthPoints": 43.659, "lossIntegrityValue": null, "lossIntegrityCost": null, "indexEffect": 4.983 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Worse", "season": 2024, "team": "FIU", "opponent": "Florida Atlantic", "matchup": "FIU lost to Florida Atlantic (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-09-14", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 3", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "initialContribution": 63.868, "finalContribution": 52.461, "contributionChange": -11.407, "opponentQualityChange": -25.99, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-4", "checkpoint": "AP Week 4", "releaseDate": "2024-09-15", "opponentRecord": "1-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 29.251, "opponentNrrRank": 84, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 52.03, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 49.51, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.868, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.132, "indexEffect": -1.818 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "1-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 28.176, "opponentNrrRank": 91, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51.05, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 48.73, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.345, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.655, "indexEffect": -1.214 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "2-4", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.784, "opponentNrrRank": 92, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.33, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 42.55, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 59.499, "lossIntegrityCost": 40.501, "indexEffect": -1.181 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "2-6", "opponentNrrIndex": 26.157, "opponentNrrRank": 108, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 35.05, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 35.92, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 55.887, "lossIntegrityCost": 44.113, "indexEffect": -0.918 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.313, "opponentNrrRank": 124, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 25.78, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 28.51, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 52.369, "lossIntegrityCost": 47.631, "indexEffect": -0.791 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.336, "opponentNrrRank": 124, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 26.04, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.43, "blendedOpponentValue": 28.72, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 52.461, "lossIntegrityCost": 47.539, "indexEffect": -0.792 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Worse", "season": 2024, "team": "James Madison", "opponent": "Louisiana-Monroe", "matchup": "James Madison lost to Louisiana-Monroe (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-10-05", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 6", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "initialContribution": 76.249, "finalContribution": 67.447, "contributionChange": -8.802, "opponentQualityChange": -14.21, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-7", "checkpoint": "AP Week 7", "releaseDate": "2024-10-06", "opponentRecord": "4-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 49.693, "opponentNrrRank": 27, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 53.94, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "blendedOpponentValue": 52.75, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 76.249, "lossIntegrityCost": 23.751, "indexEffect": -4.311 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 49.004, "opponentNrrRank": 30, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 52.79, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.83, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 75.466, "lossIntegrityCost": 24.534, "indexEffect": -5.611 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "5-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 29.997, "opponentNrrRank": 73, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 46.51, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "blendedOpponentValue": 46.81, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 71.39, "lossIntegrityCost": 28.61, "indexEffect": -1.906 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.926, "opponentNrrRank": 84, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 40.07, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.66, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 67.632, "lossIntegrityCost": 32.368, "indexEffect": -1.003 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "5-7", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.88, "opponentNrrRank": 85, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 39.73, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 48.01, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.39, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 67.447, "lossIntegrityCost": 32.553, "indexEffect": -1.035 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Worse", "season": 2025, "team": "Liberty", "opponent": "Bowling Green", "matchup": "Liberty lost to Bowling Green (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-13", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 3", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "initialContribution": 64.764, "finalContribution": 54.845, "contributionChange": -9.919, "opponentQualityChange": -22.3, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-4", "checkpoint": "AP Week 4", "releaseDate": "2025-09-14", "opponentRecord": "2-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 30.677, "opponentNrrRank": 63, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 47.34, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 44.45, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 64.764, "lossIntegrityCost": 35.236, "indexEffect": -1.978 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "2-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 29.466, "opponentNrrRank": 71, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 43.12, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.08, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 62.601, "lossIntegrityCost": 37.399, "indexEffect": -1.429 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "3-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 29.181, "opponentNrrRank": 73, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 42.86, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 40.87, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 62.471, "lossIntegrityCost": 37.529, "indexEffect": -1.143 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "3-6", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.811, "opponentNrrRank": 122, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 28.48, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 29.36, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 56.155, "lossIntegrityCost": 43.845, "indexEffect": -1.431 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "4-8", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.797, "opponentNrrRank": 121, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 25.14, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 26.69, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 54.881, "lossIntegrityCost": 45.119, "indexEffect": -0.798 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "4-8", "opponentNrrIndex": 24.789, "opponentNrrRank": 121, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 25.04, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 32.89, "blendedOpponentValue": 26.61, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 54.845, "lossIntegrityCost": 45.155, "indexEffect": -0.803 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Worse", "season": 2025, "team": "UConn", "opponent": "Syracuse", "matchup": "UConn lost to Syracuse (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-06", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "initialContribution": 75.035, "finalContribution": 66.066, "contributionChange": -8.969, "opponentQualityChange": -14.83, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2025-09-07", "opponentRecord": "1-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 36.369, "opponentNrrRank": 59, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 56.42, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 53.09, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 75.035, "lossIntegrityCost": 24.965, "indexEffect": -3.177 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 40.378, "opponentNrrRank": 46, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 48.58, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 46.82, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 70.022, "lossIntegrityCost": 29.978, "indexEffect": -1.828 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "3-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 30.628, "opponentNrrRank": 59, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 47.3, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 45.8, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 69.265, "lossIntegrityCost": 30.735, "indexEffect": -1.835 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "3-6", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.848, "opponentNrrRank": 84, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 41.79, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.39, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 66.174, "lossIntegrityCost": 33.826, "indexEffect": -1.252 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.319, "opponentNrrRank": 87, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 41.42, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.1, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 65.976, "lossIntegrityCost": 34.024, "indexEffect": -1.324 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "3-9", "opponentNrrIndex": 27.337, "opponentNrrRank": 87, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 41.59, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 39.8, "blendedOpponentValue": 41.23, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 66.066, "lossIntegrityCost": 33.934, "indexEffect": -1.324 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Better", "season": 2024, "team": "Old Dominion", "opponent": "South Carolina", "matchup": "Old Dominion lost to South Carolina (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2024-08-31", "gameTimeSource": "Preseason AP baseline", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "initialContribution": 63.458, "finalContribution": 81.923, "contributionChange": 18.465, "opponentQualityChange": 30.02, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-2", "checkpoint": "AP Week 2", "releaseDate": "2024-09-03", "opponentRecord": "1-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 54.61, "opponentNrrRank": 30, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 41.93, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 36.55, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.458, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.542, "indexEffect": -4.109 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 40.781, "opponentNrrRank": 41, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51.26, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 44.01, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 68.374, "lossIntegrityCost": 31.626, "indexEffect": -1.238 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "3-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 40.731, "opponentNrrRank": 39, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 60.89, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.71, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 74.33, "lossIntegrityCost": 25.67, "indexEffect": -0.749 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "5-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 55.301, "opponentNrrRank": 21, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 64.58, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 54.66, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 76.84, "lossIntegrityCost": 23.16, "indexEffect": -0.513 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "9-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 65.623, "opponentNrrRank": 10, "opponentOfficialRank": 14, "currentOpponentValue": 72.8, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 61.24, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 82.479, "lossIntegrityCost": 17.521, "indexEffect": -0.273 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "9-3", "opponentNrrIndex": 65.733, "opponentNrrRank": 12, "opponentOfficialRank": 15, "currentOpponentValue": 71.95, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 60.56, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 81.923, "lossIntegrityCost": 18.077, "indexEffect": -0.288 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Better", "season": 2024, "team": "Nevada", "opponent": "SMU", "matchup": "Nevada lost to SMU (home)", "gameDate": "2024-08-25", "gameTimeSource": "Preseason AP baseline", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "initialContribution": 63.623, "finalContribution": 80.424, "contributionChange": 16.801, "opponentQualityChange": 27.85, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-2", "checkpoint": "AP Week 2", "releaseDate": "2024-09-03", "opponentRecord": "2-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 56.051, "opponentNrrRank": 8, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 45.03, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 39.02, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.623, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.377, "indexEffect": -6.055 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2024-09-22", "opponentRecord": "3-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 37.953, "opponentNrrRank": 48, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 51, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 43.8, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 66.72, "lossIntegrityCost": 33.28, "indexEffect": -1.259 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2024-10-13", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 57.32, "opponentNrrRank": 18, "opponentOfficialRank": 21, "currentOpponentValue": 60.09, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.07, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 72.073, "lossIntegrityCost": 27.927, "indexEffect": -0.869 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2024-11-03", "opponentRecord": "8-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 68.574, "opponentNrrRank": 9, "opponentOfficialRank": 13, "currentOpponentValue": 66.82, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 56.46, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 76.474, "lossIntegrityCost": 23.526, "indexEffect": -0.362 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "opponentRecord": "11-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 69.364, "opponentNrrRank": 8, "opponentOfficialRank": 8, "currentOpponentValue": 73.78, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 62.03, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 80.968, "lossIntegrityCost": 19.032, "indexEffect": -0.21 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "opponentRecord": "11-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 66.569, "opponentNrrRank": 11, "opponentOfficialRank": 10, "currentOpponentValue": 72.88, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 15, "blendedOpponentValue": 61.31, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 80.424, "lossIntegrityCost": 19.576, "indexEffect": -0.217 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Better", "season": 2025, "team": "Virginia Tech", "opponent": "Vanderbilt", "matchup": "Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt (home)", "gameDate": "2025-09-06", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "initialContribution": 55.595, "finalContribution": 72.399, "contributionChange": 16.804, "opponentQualityChange": 33.79, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2025-09-07", "opponentRecord": "2-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 55.647, "opponentNrrRank": 35, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 39.87, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 38.8, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 55.595, "lossIntegrityCost": 44.405, "indexEffect": -2.82 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "4-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 63.064, "opponentNrrRank": 13, "opponentOfficialRank": 18, "currentOpponentValue": 56.67, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 52.24, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.522, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.478, "indexEffect": -1.583 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "5-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 57.842, "opponentNrrRank": 20, "opponentOfficialRank": 17, "currentOpponentValue": 62.8, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 57.14, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 66.884, "lossIntegrityCost": 33.116, "indexEffect": -1.016 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "7-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 62.32, "opponentNrrRank": 16, "opponentOfficialRank": 15, "currentOpponentValue": 68.68, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 61.85, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 70.078, "lossIntegrityCost": 29.922, "indexEffect": -0.816 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "10-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 72.349, "opponentNrrRank": 11, "opponentOfficialRank": 14, "currentOpponentValue": 73.85, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 65.99, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 72.48, "lossIntegrityCost": 27.52, "indexEffect": -0.541 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "10-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 72.257, "opponentNrrRank": 10, "opponentOfficialRank": 14, "currentOpponentValue": 73.66, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 34.52, "blendedOpponentValue": 65.83, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 72.399, "lossIntegrityCost": 27.601, "indexEffect": -0.539 } ] }, { "category": "Loss Aged Better", "season": 2025, "team": "Stanford", "opponent": "BYU", "matchup": "Stanford lost to BYU (at opponent)", "gameDate": "2025-09-07", "gameTimeSource": "AP Week 2", "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "initialContribution": 58.486, "finalContribution": 74.67, "contributionChange": 16.184, "opponentQualityChange": 31.8, "checkpoints": [ { "checkpointId": "ap-week-3", "checkpoint": "AP Week 3", "releaseDate": "2025-09-07", "opponentRecord": "2-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 55.807, "opponentNrrRank": 33, "opponentOfficialRank": null, "currentOpponentValue": 44.08, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 43.05, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 58.486, "lossIntegrityCost": 41.514, "indexEffect": -2.436 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-5", "checkpoint": "AP Week 5", "releaseDate": "2025-09-21", "opponentRecord": "3-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 62.026, "opponentNrrRank": 15, "opponentOfficialRank": 25, "currentOpponentValue": 54.14, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 51.1, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 63.494, "lossIntegrityCost": 36.506, "indexEffect": -1.416 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-8", "checkpoint": "AP Week 8", "releaseDate": "2025-10-12", "opponentRecord": "6-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 67.685, "opponentNrrRank": 10, "opponentOfficialRank": 15, "currentOpponentValue": 62.95, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 58.15, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 68.441, "lossIntegrityCost": 31.559, "indexEffect": -0.945 }, { "checkpointId": "ap-week-11", "checkpoint": "AP Week 11", "releaseDate": "2025-11-02", "opponentRecord": "8-0", "opponentNrrIndex": 82.787, "opponentNrrRank": 4, "opponentOfficialRank": 8, "currentOpponentValue": 76.71, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 69.15, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 74.948, "lossIntegrityCost": 25.052, "indexEffect": -0.689 }, { "checkpointId": "cfp-5", "checkpoint": "CFP 5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "opponentRecord": "11-1", "opponentNrrIndex": 78.433, "opponentNrrRank": 8, "opponentOfficialRank": 11, "currentOpponentValue": 76.54, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 69.02, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 74.894, "lossIntegrityCost": 25.106, "indexEffect": -0.513 }, { "checkpointId": "selection", "checkpoint": "Selection Sunday", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "opponentRecord": "11-2", "opponentNrrIndex": 71.972, "opponentNrrRank": 11, "opponentOfficialRank": 12, "currentOpponentValue": 75.88, "gameTimeOpponentValue": 38.94, "blendedOpponentValue": 68.49, "qualityWinGameValue": null, "qualityWinDepthPoints": null, "lossIntegrityValue": 74.67, "lossIntegrityCost": 25.33, "indexEffect": -0.512 } ] } ], "limitations": [ "The pregame snapshot is the latest published AP checkpoint before kickoff. For a ranked opponent, its AP standing score is a floor on the contemporaneous composite so an early small sample cannot erase what the matchup represented; unranked opponents receive no poll floor.", "Quality Win Depth is a nonlinear portfolio, so the report shows both the game's own grade and its checkpoint-specific depth allocation.", "Beginning with v0.55, a win's Game Grade also includes 15% game-level opponent-adjusted performance. That opponent baseline evolves with the national game graph, so a small minority of complete Game Grades can move against the isolated Opponent Value change even though the 80/20 Opponent Value itself still reprices exactly as specified.", "Loss Integrity is nonlinear across a résumé; the report uses the standalone game integrity value for cross-checkpoint comparison and retains the exact portfolio allocation separately." ], "sources": [ { "label": "SportsDataverse / cfbfastR schedules and play-by-play", "url": "https://github.com/sportsdataverse/cfbfastR-data" }, { "label": "WarrenNolan historical AP poll archive", "url": "https://www.warrennolan.com/football/2025/polls" }, { "label": "Official CFP historical rankings", "url": "https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx" } ] }