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"p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 24, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 2.72, "top25MaximumMovement": 18 } }, "baselineOrderRetained": true }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-4", "oneLossTeamCheckpoints": 7, "oneLossPublishedIndexCost": { "recordFoundationMedian": 4.75, "lossIntegrityMedian": 2.07, "combinedMedian": 6.96, "combinedP90": 11.43 }, "rankMovementIfRemoved": { "recordFoundation": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 2.62, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 19, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 1, "top25MaximumMovement": 6 }, "lossIntegrity": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 0.84, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 2, "maximumMovement": 5, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 0.88, "top25MaximumMovement": 4 }, "both": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 3.4, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 8, "maximumMovement": 25, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 2.12, "top25MaximumMovement": 9 } }, "baselineOrderRetained": true }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-5", "oneLossTeamCheckpoints": 8, "oneLossPublishedIndexCost": { "recordFoundationMedian": 4.18, "lossIntegrityMedian": 1.93, "combinedMedian": 6.37, "combinedP90": 10.95 }, "rankMovementIfRemoved": { "recordFoundation": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 2.54, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 18, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 1.88, "top25MaximumMovement": 18 }, "lossIntegrity": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 0.93, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 2, "maximumMovement": 7, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 0.96, "top25MaximumMovement": 4 }, "both": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 3.03, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 25, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 3.32, "top25MaximumMovement": 23 } }, "baselineOrderRetained": true }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "selection", "oneLossTeamCheckpoints": 7, "oneLossPublishedIndexCost": { "recordFoundationMedian": 4.37, "lossIntegrityMedian": 1.76, "combinedMedian": 6.11, "combinedP90": 10.95 }, "rankMovementIfRemoved": { "recordFoundation": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 2.71, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 19, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 2.36, "top25MaximumMovement": 18 }, "lossIntegrity": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 0.87, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 3, "maximumMovement": 6, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 1.28, "top25MaximumMovement": 4 }, "both": { "meanAbsoluteMovement": 3.09, "p90AbsoluteMovement": 7, "maximumMovement": 23, "top25MeanAbsoluteMovement": 3.36, "top25MaximumMovement": 23 } }, "baselineOrderRetained": true } ] }, "nextDiagnostics": [ "Rebuild historical Week 2, 4, 6 and 8 snapshots before evaluating an earlier public start.", "Run leave-one-game-out tests and report median, 90th-percentile and maximum rank movement.", "Report component dispersion and effective active weight at every checkpoint so dormant measures are visible." ], "holdoutGate": [ "Freeze the formula and all weights before importing a season that was not used while developing v0.57.", "Archive the data-quality and team-identity checks before viewing the held-out results.", "Publish agreement, error, bias, sensitivity and adversarial-gaming results whether they help or hurt the model.", "Do not change the formula until the held-out report is published and the reason for any revision is recorded." ], "checkpoints": [ { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "cfp-1", "releaseDate": "2024-11-05", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 23, "withinThree": 17, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.44, "rankCorrelation": 0.91, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 10.285745, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "cfp-2", "releaseDate": "2024-11-12", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 24, "withinThree": 17, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.76, "rankCorrelation": 0.89, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 21.205884, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "cfp-3", "releaseDate": "2024-11-19", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 23, "withinThree": 19, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.72, "rankCorrelation": 0.92, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 15.720319, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "cfp-4", "releaseDate": "2024-11-26", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 22, "withinThree": 19, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.64, "rankCorrelation": 0.9, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 12.717867, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "cfp-5", "releaseDate": "2024-12-03", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 21, "withinThree": 17, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 3.2, "rankCorrelation": 0.9, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 11.063566, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2024, "checkpoint": "selection", "releaseDate": "2024-12-08", "teamsAudited": 134, "top25Overlap": 22, "withinThree": 20, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.76, "rankCorrelation": 0.92, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 11.030043, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-1", "releaseDate": "2025-11-04", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 23, "withinThree": 20, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.08, "rankCorrelation": 0.91, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 17.969004, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-2", "releaseDate": "2025-11-11", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 22, "withinThree": 22, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.04, "rankCorrelation": 0.95, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 15.921059, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-3", "releaseDate": "2025-11-18", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 24, "withinThree": 21, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 1.56, "rankCorrelation": 0.95, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 17.137396, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-4", "releaseDate": "2025-11-25", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 22, "withinThree": 21, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 1.6, "rankCorrelation": 0.98, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 13.94307, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "cfp-5", "releaseDate": "2025-12-02", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 20, "withinThree": 20, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.76, "rankCorrelation": 0.92, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 8.561586, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "checkpoint": "selection", "releaseDate": "2025-12-07", "teamsAudited": 136, "top25Overlap": 21, "withinThree": 19, "meanAbsoluteDifference": 2.56, "rankCorrelation": 0.94, "zeroLossIntegrityTop25": 0, "lowestLossIntegrityTop25": 13.117082, "formulaOrderErrors": 0 } ], "violations": [] }