AUDIENCE MODEL REVISION3 — OCTOBER15,2026
Run python3 model.py with Python3.10+ standard library. All calculations are scenarios, not causal forecasts.
Central24 title displacement now derives from four reported2025P4 title audiences, standardized to the same3.5hours as playoff games:168.217million hours. Source records/status/URLs are in p4_title_evidence.json. Official-duration proxy154.3542million hours is separate and is not matched Nielsen measured viewing.
Future title removal, audience transfer and replacement remain assumptions. Other model inputs remain unchanged. Downside/upside title displacement factors4/3 and2/3 preserve the previous proportional stress around the new anchor; these bounds are assumptions.
Central deltas vs12:18 +100.6139;24 +40.1969million hours. Central regular response break-even:18 -2.8725%;24 -0.8474%. Extra24 response to overtake18:2.0252percentage points. Downside required gains:18 4.9576%;24 12.1874%.
Nine scenarios and54grid cases pass boundary checks. Historical sources have differing measurement bases; repeated viewers are not unique fans. Financial yield and production costs remain illustrative. The separate National Tournament is outside this model.
