{
  "auditVersion": "2.1.0",
  "model": "18-team CFP paired reseeding-versus-lock audit",
  "status": "mechanics and path comparison, not a forecast",
  "runCountPerSetting": 50000,
  "deterministicSeeds": [
    1119944686,
    1119954659,
    1119964632
  ],
  "protectedChampionSeedScenarios": [
    [
      1,
      4,
      8,
      12,
      18
    ],
    [
      2,
      5,
      9,
      13,
      17
    ],
    [
      3,
      6,
      10,
      14,
      16
    ],
    [
      4,
      7,
      11,
      15,
      18
    ]
  ],
  "sourceSha256": "db69b9cb3e2e12ecb59c247de0b798470bf8550855cb3d9250350c1f36c4a141",
  "method": "Runs 150,000 paired scenarios through the same 18-team field, upset setting, and random game rolls. The mechanics-only champion fixtures rotate across seed positions whose union covers Nos. 1–18. One bracket applies the proposal's redraws before the Round of 12 and quarterfinals; its counterpart locks every path on Selection Day. Semifinal paths lock in both formats.",
  "limitations": [
    "Seed is the only team-strength input in this audit.",
    "The test does not predict future teams, injuries, coaching, travel, or game conditions.",
    "The locked bracket is a counterfactual built only to isolate path effects; it is not a second proposal.",
    "Champion seed fixtures are coverage cases, not a forecast of where any conference champion will be ranked.",
    "A nonzero long-shot result confirms the path is possible in the model; it does not establish that its probability is calibrated to real football."
  ],
  "comparisonSummary": {
    "pairedRunCount": 150000,
    "bracketOutcomeCount": 300000,
    "roundOf12MatchupsChangedShare": 0.67499,
    "quarterfinalMatchupsChangedShare": 0.81035,
    "eitherReseedChangedPathShare": 0.91415,
    "championChangedShare": 0.27111,
    "lockedNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 0.33277
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "key": "favorites",
      "label": "Favorites first",
      "runs": 50000,
      "scale": 4.25,
      "cinderellaRate": 0.12,
      "lowestChampionSeedObserved": 18,
      "topSeedChampionShare": 0.38108,
      "seeds14To18ChampionShare": 0.00358,
      "comparison": {
        "roundOf12MatchupsChangedShare": 0.52734,
        "quarterfinalMatchupsChangedShare": 0.65018,
        "eitherReseedChangedPathShare": 0.82308,
        "championChangedShare": 0.11278,
        "reseededNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 1,
        "lockedNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 0.42232,
        "reseededTopSeedChampionShare": 0.38108,
        "lockedTopSeedChampionShare": 0.3659,
        "topSeedChampionShareDelta": 0.01518
      },
      "byBand": [
        {
          "label": "1–2 · double bye",
          "count": 32110,
          "share": 0.6422
        },
        {
          "label": "protected/earned Round of 12 entry",
          "count": 17362,
          "share": 0.34724
        },
        {
          "label": "opening-round host range",
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          "share": 0.00868
        },
        {
          "label": "opening-round road range",
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          "share": 0.00188
        }
      ],
      "bySeed": [
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        {
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        {
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        {
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        },
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      ],
      "lockedBySeed": [
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        {
          "seed": 18,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "balanced",
      "label": "Balanced",
      "runs": 50000,
      "scale": 6.5,
      "cinderellaRate": 0.5,
      "lowestChampionSeedObserved": 18,
      "topSeedChampionShare": 0.2872,
      "seeds14To18ChampionShare": 0.04576,
      "comparison": {
        "roundOf12MatchupsChangedShare": 0.69292,
        "quarterfinalMatchupsChangedShare": 0.84382,
        "eitherReseedChangedPathShare": 0.9392,
        "championChangedShare": 0.28384,
        "reseededNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 1,
        "lockedNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 0.29976,
        "reseededTopSeedChampionShare": 0.2872,
        "lockedTopSeedChampionShare": 0.28146,
        "topSeedChampionShareDelta": 0.00574
      },
      "byBand": [
        {
          "label": "1–2 · double bye",
          "count": 25632,
          "share": 0.51264
        },
        {
          "label": "protected/earned Round of 12 entry",
          "count": 21121,
          "share": 0.42242
        },
        {
          "label": "opening-round host range",
          "count": 1665,
          "share": 0.0333
        },
        {
          "label": "opening-round road range",
          "count": 1582,
          "share": 0.03164
        }
      ],
      "bySeed": [
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        {
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        {
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      ],
      "lockedBySeed": [
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        },
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      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "upsets",
      "label": "Upset-heavy",
      "runs": 50000,
      "scale": 10.5,
      "cinderellaRate": 0.75,
      "lowestChampionSeedObserved": 18,
      "topSeedChampionShare": 0.2102,
      "seeds14To18ChampionShare": 0.1245,
      "comparison": {
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        "quarterfinalMatchupsChangedShare": 0.93706,
        "eitherReseedChangedPathShare": 0.98018,
        "championChangedShare": 0.4167,
        "reseededNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 1,
        "lockedNo1FacesLowestRemainingShare": 0.27622,
        "reseededTopSeedChampionShare": 0.2102,
        "lockedTopSeedChampionShare": 0.2093,
        "topSeedChampionShareDelta": 0.0009
      },
      "byBand": [
        {
          "label": "protected/earned Round of 12 entry",
          "count": 22501,
          "share": 0.45002
        },
        {
          "label": "opening-round host range",
          "count": 3234,
          "share": 0.06468
        },
        {
          "label": "1–2 · double bye",
          "count": 19834,
          "share": 0.39668
        },
        {
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          "count": 4431,
          "share": 0.08862
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      ],
      "bySeed": [
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      ],
      "lockedBySeed": [
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      ]
    }
  ]
}