Account

Research candidate · October 19, 2026 · Not adopted

Champions first.
Show the tradeoff.

Five selected champions receive access and skip the opener. Pre-title protection then receives priority within the remaining places. When claims collide, the allocation names what gives way.

This page runs a candidate rule. It does not switch the active bracket tools or amend the proposal’s adopted status.

Known win regression · hold for repair

A controlled audit found a title-game winner that improves from final No. 14 to No. 13 but loses its home opener. The previous recommendation is withdrawn pending repair and validation. This is an allocation counterexample with declared rankings, not a historical or NRR-refitted result.

Inspect the counterexample, complete search and repair screen →

A priority claim is not an unconditional guarantee.

The original recommendation aimed to keep the proposal’s explicit title reward and preserves retained hosting where possible. The fixed bracket still has eighteen entrants, two double byes, eight single byes, four opening hosts and four visitors.

Choose eighteen entrants: five selected champions first; then required title-game participants ranked 1–18 before the title games, in that pre-title order; then fill by final rank. Champion access can displace a retained berth claim.
Assign two double byes: eligible pre-title top-two title participants first; fill any remaining place by final rank among eligible entrants.
Assign eight single byes: remove double-bye teams, place remaining selected champions first, then pre-title top-ten title participants in pre-title order, then fill by final rank.
Choose four opening hosts: among the eight opening teams, pre-title top-fourteen title participants have priority in pre-title order; fill by final rank. A displaced top-ten bye claimant also enters this hosting priority.
Keep rank separate from benefit: sort hosts and visitors separately by final rank; the highest-ranked host faces the lowest-ranked visitor. After the opener and Round of 12, redraw all survivors by final rank, then retain the existing locked paths.

A lower final-ranked opening team can therefore host a higher final-ranked visitor. That is an explicit exception to final-order hosting, not a changed seed. A retained bye or home-game claim can still be lost. Certification and a funded fallback are separate from earning a home game.

Only five selected champions receive this access benefit, including at least one from outside the Power Four. Every league champion’s NRR component remains a separate ranking input. No ranking weight changes here.

Original rationale and its limit

Champion-first byes retain the declared title reward. Retained-first hosting avoids discarding an additional earned claim solely to keep all hosts above all visitors in final rank. The cost is conditional pre-title protection; we should remove the contradictory promise that the minimum benefit can never be erased.

Four unadopted options on the same 6,144 constructed cases
Bye / host priority	Champion-bye loss cases	Retained-bye / retained-host loss cases
Champion / retained · held after regression	0	2,048 / 1,024
Champion / final rank	0	2,048 / 3,584
Retained / retained	2,048	0 / 0
Retained / final rank	2,048	0 / 4,096

Categories overlap. These boundary-seeking cases are not historical frequencies or a fairness score. Retained-first byes are a coherent alternative if preserving the pre-title floor matters more than assuring a champion’s bye; that is a different priority choice.

Read the original conflict study and its unchanged reports →

See exactly who loses a claim.

All teams below are fictional. Final rankings are declared inputs, not NRR score refits or forecasts. The first two examples follow the original study; the berth example adds ten title games to check a wider boundary.

Eleven exemption claims, ten places

Only final ranks 9 and 11 swap. The pre-title No. 11 selected champion gets a bye; pre-title No. 10 hosts an opener instead of receiving its claimed single bye. Eleven exemption claims cannot fit ten places.

Eleven exemption claims, ten places: changed claims and hosting exceptions
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 1010 / 10	Single bye → Opening host Claim not retained	Single-bye capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 03, Fixture 04, Fixture 05, Fixture 06, Fixture 07, Fixture 08, Fixture 11, Fixture 09

Inspect all eighteen allocations and four opening games

Fixture 10 hosts Fixture 18; Fixture 12 hosts Fixture 17; Fixture 13 hosts Fixture 16; Fixture 14 hosts Fixture 15.

Eleven exemption claims, ten places: complete field
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 011 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Fixture 022 / 2	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 033 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 044 / 4	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 055 / 5 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 066 / 6	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 077 / 7 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 088 / 8	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1111 / 9 · selected champion	Opening host → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 1010 / 10	Single bye → Opening host Claim not retained	Single-bye capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 03, Fixture 04, Fixture 05, Fixture 06, Fixture 07, Fixture 08, Fixture 11, Fixture 09
Fixture 099 / 11	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1212 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1313 / 13	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1414 / 14	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1515 / 15	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1616 / 16	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1717 / 17	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1818 / 18	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

A retained host below the final-rank cutoff

Only final ranks 14 and 15 swap. Pre-title No. 14 keeps hosting despite becoming final No. 15; final No. 14 visits. The retained host priority overrides the final-rank host cutoff. Neither underlying rank changes.

A retained host below the final-rank cutoff: changed claims and hosting exceptions
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 1414 / 15	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored

Inspect all eighteen allocations and four opening games

Fixture 11 hosts Fixture 18; Fixture 12 hosts Fixture 17; Fixture 13 hosts Fixture 16; Fixture 14 hosts Fixture 15.

A retained host below the final-rank cutoff: complete field
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 011 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Fixture 022 / 2	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 033 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 044 / 4	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 055 / 5 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 066 / 6	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 077 / 7 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 088 / 8	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 099 / 9 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 1010 / 10	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1111 / 11	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1212 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1313 / 13	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1515 / 14	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1414 / 15	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1616 / 16	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1717 / 17	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1818 / 18	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

Nineteen berth claims, eighteen places

Ten title games put twenty teams in the participant pool. Eighteen have pre-title berth claims and another selected champion comes from outside them: nineteen claims for eighteen places. Fixture 18 is excluded. Fixture 10 also loses its bye claim and Fixture 14 its host claim under the same fixed capacities.

Nineteen berth claims, eighteen places: changed claims and hosting exceptions
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 1010 / 11	Single bye → Opening host Claim not retained	Single-bye capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 19, Fixture 03, Fixture 05, Fixture 07, Fixture 04, Fixture 06, Fixture 08, Fixture 09
Fixture 1414 / 15	Opening host → Opening visitor Claim not retained	Hosting capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 10, Fixture 11, Fixture 12, Fixture 13
Fixture 1818 / 19	Berth → Outside field Claim not retained	Berth capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 19, Fixture 01, Fixture 03, Fixture 05, Fixture 07, Fixture 02, Fixture 04, Fixture 06, Fixture 08, Fixture 09, Fixture 10, Fixture 11, Fixture 12, Fixture 13, Fixture 14, Fixture 15, Fixture 16, Fixture 17

Inspect all eighteen allocations and four opening games

Fixture 10 hosts Fixture 17; Fixture 11 hosts Fixture 16; Fixture 12 hosts Fixture 15; Fixture 13 hosts Fixture 14.

Nineteen berth claims, eighteen places: complete field
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Fixture 1919 / 1 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 011 / 2 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Fixture 033 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 055 / 4 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 077 / 5 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Fixture 022 / 6	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 044 / 7	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 066 / 8	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 088 / 9	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 099 / 10	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1010 / 11	Single bye → Opening host Claim not retained	Single-bye capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 19, Fixture 03, Fixture 05, Fixture 07, Fixture 04, Fixture 06, Fixture 08, Fixture 09
Fixture 1111 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1212 / 13	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1313 / 14	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1414 / 15	Opening host → Opening visitor Claim not retained	Hosting capacity exhausted after higher-priority claims Who occupies the limited places? Fixture 10, Fixture 11, Fixture 12, Fixture 13
Fixture 1515 / 16	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1616 / 17	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Fixture 1717 / 18	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

Six historical fields reproduce exactly.

6 / 6historical allocations match

1,024conflict-free stress cases preserved

6,144candidate stress allocations complete

The candidate matches entrants, both bye groups, hosts, visitors and opening pairs in the 2024 and 2025 committee and two NRR variants. Matching these cases establishes compatibility with those inputs, not superiority or validation on an unseen season.

2024 · Committee protected baseline · exact match

Double byes: Oregon, Texas. Single byes: Georgia, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Boise State, SMU, Arizona State, Clemson.

2024 Committee protected baseline: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Oregon1 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Georgia5 / 2 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas2 / 3	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Penn State3 / 4	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Notre Dame4 / 5	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ohio State6 / 6	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Tennessee7 / 7	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Indiana9 / 8	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Boise State10 / 9 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
SMU8 / 10	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Alabama11 / 11	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Arizona State15 / 12 · selected champion	Berth → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Miami12 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss13 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
South Carolina14 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Clemson17 / 16 · selected champion	Berth → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
BYU18 / 17	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Iowa State16 / 18	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

All ranked candidates assumed double-bye eligible, matching original experiment; schedule certification not established. Committee top-25 coverage excludes unranked title participants only after verifying no top-18 pre-title claim.

2024 · NRR paired snapshots · champions fixed · exact match

Double byes: Oregon, Texas. Single byes: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Arizona State, SMU, Boise State, Clemson.

2024 NRR paired snapshots · champions fixed: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Oregon1 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Georgia3 / 2 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas2 / 3	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Notre Dame5 / 4	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ohio State6 / 5	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Penn State4 / 6	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Indiana7 / 7	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Arizona State13 / 8 · selected champion	Opening host → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Tennessee9 / 9	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
SMU8 / 10	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Boise State16 / 11 · selected champion	Berth → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
South Carolina10 / 12	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Alabama11 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
BYU12 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss14 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Clemson23 / 16 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Miami15 / 17	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Iowa State17 / 19	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

2024 · NRR paired snapshots · champions reselected · exact match

Double byes: Oregon, Texas. Single byes: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Arizona State, SMU, Boise State, Clemson.

2024 NRR paired snapshots · champions reselected: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Oregon1 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Georgia3 / 2 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas2 / 3	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Notre Dame5 / 4	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ohio State6 / 5	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Penn State4 / 6	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Indiana7 / 7	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Arizona State13 / 8 · selected champion	Opening host → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Tennessee9 / 9	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
SMU8 / 10	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Boise State16 / 11 · selected champion	Berth → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
South Carolina10 / 12	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Alabama11 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
BYU12 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss14 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Clemson23 / 16 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Miami15 / 17	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Iowa State17 / 19	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored

2025 · Committee protected baseline · exact match

Double byes: Indiana, Ohio State. Single byes: Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Tulane, James Madison.

2025 Committee protected baseline: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Indiana2 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Ohio State1 / 2	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Georgia3 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas Tech4 / 4 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Oregon5 / 5	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss6 / 6	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Texas A&M7 / 7	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Oklahoma8 / 8	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Alabama9 / 9	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Miami12 / 10	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Notre Dame10 / 11	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
BYU11 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Texas13 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Vanderbilt14 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Utah15 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Virginia17 / 19	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
Tulane20 / 20 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
James Madison25 / 24 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption

2025 · NRR paired snapshots · champions fixed · exact match

Double byes: Indiana, Ohio State. Single byes: Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane, James Madison.

2025 NRR paired snapshots · champions fixed: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Indiana2 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Ohio State1 / 2	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Georgia3 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas A&M4 / 4	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Texas Tech7 / 5 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Oregon5 / 6	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss6 / 7	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Oklahoma9 / 8	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Notre Dame10 / 9	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Vanderbilt11 / 10	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
BYU8 / 11	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Alabama12 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Miami13 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Texas14 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Utah15 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Tulane34 / 21 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Virginia18 / 23	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
James Madison29 / 24 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption

2025 · NRR paired snapshots · champions reselected · exact match

Double byes: Indiana, Ohio State. Single byes: Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane, James Madison.

2025 NRR paired snapshots · champions reselected: candidate allocation
Team · pre-title / final rank	Claim → allocation	Why
Indiana2 / 1 · selected champion	Double bye → Double bye	Selected champion; earned double bye
Ohio State1 / 2	Double bye → Double bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Georgia3 / 3 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Texas A&M4 / 4	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Texas Tech7 / 5 · selected champion	Single bye → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Oregon5 / 6	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Ole Miss6 / 7	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Oklahoma9 / 8	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Notre Dame10 / 9	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Vanderbilt11 / 10	No pre-title claim → Opening host	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
BYU8 / 11	Single bye → Single bye	Retained pre-title priority honored
Alabama12 / 12	Opening host → Opening host	Retained pre-title priority honored
Miami13 / 13	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Texas14 / 14	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Utah15 / 15	No pre-title claim → Opening visitor	Final underlying order fills remaining capacity
Tulane34 / 21 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption
Virginia18 / 23	Berth → Opening visitor	Retained pre-title priority honored
James Madison29 / 24 · selected champion	No pre-title claim → Single bye	Selected champion opening exemption

Compare the original historical fields and benefit changes →

What remains before adoption?

A known entry-benefit regression now blocks adoption. Test a separately versioned repair, actual ranking refits, and independent fixtures; review eligibility, cancellation, forfeit and appeal inputs and broaden compatible historical coverage toward the proposal’s ten-season gate. No finite pass here proves incentive compatibility, predicts team performance or validates rest and hosting readiness.

Historical runs assume the same double-bye eligibility as the original experiments. Committee rankings cover the Top 25; omitted title participants are excluded from that run only after checking they have no pre-title top-eighteen claim. Missing identities, champion classifications or eligibility inputs stop the candidate rather than produce an audited result.

The active simulator remains a separately labeled simplified illustration. It does not apply this candidate automatically. A production switch requires a separate decision and broader validation; old policy IDs and reports remain intact.

Policy: champion-first-retained-hosts-v1. From the matching source, run node scripts/audit-protection-candidate.mjs and node --test tests/protection-candidate.test.mjs.