Published analyses, historical comparisons, and the work still required before adoption.
Published analyses
Frozen diagnostics · v0.57
Which ranking properties survive a direct test?
The first frozen property review tests neutral synthetic tournaments and historical fixed-component sensitivity. Score homogeneity fails, and fixed-context weak wins can reduce Quality-Win Depth.
Supports
Explicit finite results, counterexample inputs and a frozen forward specification.
Does not prove
These are not proofs or unseen-season validation. Full historical refits, expanded properties and remaining paper review are open.
Every win and loss keeps 20% of its pregame opponent context while 80% updates as the season reveals what that opponent became. A ranked opponent’s published standing is the floor for that frozen share.
Supports
The same opponent-quality input reprices Quality-Win Depth and Loss Integrity in the expected direction while reducing checkpoint volatility by one fifth.
Does not prove
Two development seasons do not establish the best permanent blend; a frozen holdout and the live 2026 run remain required.
The same field and game rolls run through a locked bracket and the proposal’s two reseeds.
Supports
The reseeds change matchups and restore highest-versus-lowest priority after applicable rounds.
Does not prove
Seed-only win probabilities are not calibrated forecasts. This comparison does not test long layoffs, athlete recovery, or regular-season effort; historical fields and held-out probabilities remain required.
These areas still need independent review before adoption.
Competition design
Rules written · partial simulation
Still required Historical fields, calibrated game probabilities, rematch rates, campus-host readiness, travel, rest, access, and total-game distributions.
Published now+
The 18-team field, benefit tiers, two reseeds, bowl rotation, National Tournament, and calendar are stated in the proposal. The paired bracket audit tests reseeding against a locked path.
Player and market rules
Policy drafted · outside review required
Still required Athlete-led negotiation plus independent labor, privacy, medical, academic, disability, antitrust, state-law, and enforcement review.
Published now+
The proposal states a national rights floor, player-school agreement terms, transfer rules, NIL disclosure standards, and a protected professional-exploration boundary.
Authority, enforcement, and economics
Framework written · authority unconfirmed
Still required Lawful delegation, representation, voting, staffing, costs, media terms, insurance, venue inputs, independent adjudication, and downside responsibility.
Published now+
The proposal assigns rulemaking, administration, investigation, adjudication, appeal, funding, and amendment responsibilities and states an athlete-first revenue waterfall.
Adoption standard
Seven gates · none may be skipped
Still required Competitive simulation; athlete welfare and academics; legal and labor review; financial terms; host operations; ranking bias and gaming tests; formal player and stakeholder representation.
Published now+
The proposal has a stop-before-launch rule: a policy recommendation is not presented as legal approval, funding, negotiated consent, or operational readiness.
Sources & downloads
Primary source library18 official and public records
Round-specific budgets, lodging, operations, and bids due before selection. A preparation precedent—not proof that every FBS campus can host on short notice.
Spring classes begin January 11 in 2027 and January 10 in 2028. A campus example showing why early-January student attendance cannot be assumed; each host needs its own calendar check.
Downloads and dataSix current files and the complete online proposal