Protected field comparison · October 15, 2026 · Retrospective
The same entrants.
Different earned paths.
Matching pre-title and final NRR snapshots produce the same eighteen entrants as the protected committee reconstruction in both 2024 and 2025. Six team-season entry assignments change. Keeping the field does not keep every bye, home game or opening matchup.
Protection changes the boundary that the earlier study omitted.
The earlier final-only 2024 NRR sensitivity included 8–4 LSU in place of Iowa State. With NRR pre-title protection applied, Iowa State’s No. 17 pre-title berth survives its No. 19 final rank; LSU stays outside. In 2025, Virginia’s NRR No. 18 pre-title berth survives a No. 23 final rank, keeping USC outside. The original final-only result remains a valid answer to its narrower question.
6complete allocations
0membership swaps versus the protected committee fields
6changed benefit assignments across two seasons
All six allocations fit two double byes, eight single byes and eight opening-round teams. No capacity conflict appears in this sample. That does not resolve every possible conflict or validate NRR’s ranking quality.
Pair the rankings before protecting a benefit.
Each season has three separate runs: the committee protected baseline; paired NRR orders with the committee’s five champions held fixed; and paired NRR orders with five champions selected by final NRR, including at least one non-Power Four champion. Both NRR runs use the same v0.57 formula for the pre-title and final orders. Neither imports committee pre-title floors.
Reselecting champions changes no champion set in these two years, so the two NRR variants have identical allocations. They remain separate experiments: different rankings could select different champions in another season. Championship identity and conference classification come from all nine dated championship events per season, with stable provider team IDs; a current conference directory is not substituted.
| Season | Pre-title release / cutoff UTC | Final release / cutoff UTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-12-032024-12-01T12:00:00.000Z | 2024-12-082024-12-08T12:00:00.000Z |
| 2025 | 2025-12-022025-11-30T12:00:00.000Z | 2025-12-072025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z |
These are retrospective model archives, not NRR rankings published during those seasons or an unused holdout. Components are preserved; the canonical public comparator reproduces every archived order. NRR itself includes committee-standing inputs, so this is not an independent comparison to the committee. The source audit supplies the correction lineage and committee-input checks.
2024 · eighteen of eighteen entrants match
Iowa State stays. South Carolina earns a home opener.
Both methods protect Oregon and Texas with double byes and give the same eight teams single byes. South Carolina becomes an opening host in place of Miami. Every opening pairing changes when the final underlying order is used.
| Team | Committee path | NRR path | Pre-title / final ranks, committee → NRR | Maximum season games, committee → NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Opening visitor | Opening host | 14/15 → 10/12 | 17 → 17 |
| Miami | Opening host | Opening visitor | 12/13 → 15/17 | 17 → 17 |
| Protected committee | Protected NRR, both champion variants |
|---|---|
| Tennessee vs. Iowa State | Indiana vs. Iowa State |
| Indiana vs. BYU | Tennessee vs. Miami |
| Alabama vs. South Carolina | South Carolina vs. Ole Miss |
| Miami vs. Ole Miss | Alabama vs. BYU |
Later redraws follow the final underlying order, not a newly manufactured seed for a protected team. No later winner or championship probability is simulated here.
Inspect all eighteen 2024 paths and protected claims
Single-bye teams: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Arizona State, SMU, Boise State, Clemson. Double-bye teams: Oregon, Texas. “No pre-title claim” means the team did not acquire a minimum benefit through a required title game; its final order can still earn entry or a bye.
| Final NRR / team | Record | Pre-title NRR | Claim | Entry benefit | Wins to title / maximum season games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Oregon | 13-0 | 1 | Double bye · selected champion | Double bye | 3 / 16 |
| 2 · Georgia | 11-2 | 3 | Single bye · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 3 · Texas | 11-2 | 2 | Double bye | Double bye | 3 / 16 |
| 4 · Notre Dame | 11-1 | 5 | No pre-title claim | Single bye | 4 / 16 |
| 5 · Ohio State | 10-2 | 6 | No pre-title claim | Single bye | 4 / 16 |
| 6 · Penn State | 11-2 | 4 | Single bye | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 7 · Indiana | 11-1 | 7 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 8 · Arizona State | 11-2 | 13 | Opening host · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 9 · Tennessee | 10-2 | 9 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 10 · SMU | 11-2 | 8 | Single bye | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 11 · Boise State | 12-1 | 16 | Retained berth · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 12 · South Carolina | 9-3 | 10 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 13 · Alabama | 9-3 | 11 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 14 · BYU | 10-2 | 12 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 15 · Ole Miss | 9-3 | 14 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 16 · Clemson | 10-3 | 23 | No pre-title claim · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 17 · Miami | 10-2 | 15 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 19 · Iowa State | 10-3 | 17 | Retained berth | Opening visitor | 5 / 18 |
2025 · eighteen of eighteen entrants match
BYU gains a bye. Alabama enters a round earlier.
Indiana and Ohio State retain the double byes. NRR’s pre-title No. 8 BYU claims a single bye instead of the committee-case home opener. Alabama’s pre-title NRR No. 12 claims a home opener instead of the committee-case single bye. Vanderbilt also becomes a host, while Miami becomes an opening visitor.
| Team | Committee path | NRR path | Pre-title / final ranks, committee → NRR | Maximum season games, committee → NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | Opening visitor | Opening host | 14/14 → 11/10 | 17 → 17 |
| BYU | Opening host | Single bye | 11/12 → 8/11 | 18 → 17 |
| Alabama | Single bye | Opening host | 9/9 → 12/12 | 17 → 18 |
| Miami | Opening host | Opening visitor | 12/10 → 13/13 | 17 → 17 |
BYU’s maximum path falls from eighteen season games to seventeen; Alabama’s rises from seventeen to eighteen. Under the two existing illustrative calendar scenarios, BYU starts December 20 or 21 instead of December 13 or 14; Alabama moves the other way. Elapsed days since the title game change from 7–8 to 14–15 for BYU and from 14–15 to 7–8 for Alabama. These are calendar intervals, not full rest days or medical clearance.
| Protected committee | Protected NRR, both champion variants |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma vs. Virginia | Oklahoma vs. Virginia |
| Miami vs. Utah | Notre Dame vs. Utah |
| Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt vs. Texas |
| BYU vs. Texas | Alabama vs. Miami |
Later redraws follow the final underlying order, not a newly manufactured seed for a protected team. No later winner or championship probability is simulated here.
Inspect all eighteen 2025 paths and protected claims
Single-bye teams: Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane, James Madison. Double-bye teams: Indiana, Ohio State. “No pre-title claim” means the team did not acquire a minimum benefit through a required title game; its final order can still earn entry or a bye.
| Final NRR / team | Record | Pre-title NRR | Claim | Entry benefit | Wins to title / maximum season games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Indiana | 13-0 | 2 | Double bye · selected champion | Double bye | 3 / 16 |
| 2 · Ohio State | 12-1 | 1 | Double bye | Double bye | 3 / 16 |
| 3 · Georgia | 12-1 | 3 | Single bye · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 4 · Texas A&M | 11-1 | 4 | No pre-title claim | Single bye | 4 / 16 |
| 5 · Texas Tech | 12-1 | 7 | Single bye · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 6 · Oregon | 11-1 | 5 | No pre-title claim | Single bye | 4 / 16 |
| 7 · Ole Miss | 11-1 | 6 | No pre-title claim | Single bye | 4 / 16 |
| 8 · Oklahoma | 10-2 | 9 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 9 · Notre Dame | 10-2 | 10 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 10 · Vanderbilt | 10-2 | 11 | No pre-title claim | Opening host | 5 / 17 |
| 11 · BYU | 11-2 | 8 | Single bye | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 12 · Alabama | 10-3 | 12 | Opening host | Opening host | 5 / 18 |
| 13 · Miami | 10-2 | 13 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 14 · Texas | 9-3 | 14 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 15 · Utah | 10-2 | 15 | No pre-title claim | Opening visitor | 5 / 17 |
| 21 · Tulane | 11-2 | 34 | No pre-title claim · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
| 23 · Virginia | 10-3 | 18 | Retained berth | Opening visitor | 5 / 18 |
| 24 · James Madison | 12-1 | 29 | No pre-title claim · selected champion | Single bye | 4 / 17 |
The same field preserves the same participant-departure ledger.
The 2024 protected cases draw six additional entrants from five actual bowls: Alabama from ReliaQuest, Miami and Iowa State from Pop-Tarts, Ole Miss from Gator, South Carolina from Citrus and BYU from Alamo. LSU remains available outside this protected CFP field.
The 2025 protected cases draw five bowl participants: BYU from Pop-Tarts, Texas from Citrus, Vanderbilt from ReliaQuest, Utah from Las Vegas and Virginia from Gator. Notre Dame is the sixth added entrant and had no actual postseason game; it is not counted as a bowl-participant departure. USC remains outside the protected field, so its actual Alamo participation remains available under this comparison.
Actual destinations are checked against the 2024–25 and 2025–26 Bowl Season schedules and the existing historical reconstruction. They are used after selection to identify available teams. Later game results do not influence selection. A departure is not a canceled bowl, a replacement contract or a revenue estimate.
Keep the distinction between who enters and what they earn.
- Clarify the proposal’s evidence: use this protected comparison when discussing the proposal’s field. Preserve the earlier final-only result as a separate sensitivity, not a protected bracket.
- Test benefits directly: six changed assignments show why identical entrants cannot establish equivalent competitive or athlete burdens. The 2025 BYU/Alabama switch supplies a concrete case for the separate calibrated strength, recovery and hosting studies.
- Expand before changing policy: add older seasons only after verifying compatible ranking pairs, championship and conference identities, calendar provenance and bowl inventory. Do not tune weights to preserve these two fields.
- Keep conflict handling explicit: synthetic tests reject excess berth/bye claims and home-host ordering collisions. A general resolution rule still needs review before a production selection engine can apply it.
No selection policy or ranking weight changes follow from this result. Two matching fields do not prove that eighteen is optimal, that each entrant merits a title chance, or that NRR is superior.
Reproduce the six allocations
Run node scripts/audit-protected-nrr.mjs and node --test tests/protected-nrr.test.mjs tests/playoff-comparison.test.mjs from the matching source. The audit verifies the frozen protocol, allocator, ranking comparator, source inventory and four archive hashes before running. Both committee allocations are independently checked against the established historical allocator.
- Questions, variants, rules and stop conditions
- Frozen source and input hashes
- All six allocations, rank pairs, claims, paths and source identities
Earlier final-only field and bowl study · Historical committee reconstruction · Separate format and rest sensitivity · Canonical protection wording