12 teams
0million hours versus 12
Comparison baseline
Account
Economics lab · October 15, 2026
Change the assumptions.
Inspect the tradeoffs.
Explore viewing, venue cash and funding timing on this page. Historical evidence anchors the questions; future prices and commitments remain open.
Measured historical context: ESPN reports 37 billion viewing minutes across the 11 games of the 2025-season playoff, or about 617 million viewer-hours. The calculator’s separate standardized baseline is about 636 million hours: CFP game-level audiences multiplied by an assumed 3.5 hours. The source series and measurement bases differ. The gap does not isolate game duration; matched telecast durations are still missing.
Try the audience comparison
Change the assumptions and see the modeled season viewing comparison move. This is a sensitivity tool, not a forecast or financial valuation. Results include repeated viewing; they are not unique fans.
Central illustration. Presets change several assumptions together. Input bounds are for exploration; they are not statistical confidence limits.
Adjust the remaining audience assumptions
18 teams has the most modeled viewer-hours
What this case says
18 teams adds enough modeled viewing to offset its assumed displacement. That is an audience outcome, not proof of more profit or funded access.
18 adds 100.6 million standardized viewer-hours versus 12. 24 adds 40.2 million. The assumed regular-season response, early-round audiences and displaced title/bowl viewing can reverse the order.
18 teams
+100.6million hours versus 12
Regular-season break-even versus 12: -2.87%
24 teams
+40.2million hours versus 12
Regular-season break-even versus 12: -0.85%
Holding the other inputs fixed, 24 needs a regular-season response 2.03 percentage points higher than 18 to tie it. This is a threshold, not a predicted response.
See how the viewing totals reconcile
| Change | 18 teams | 24 teams |
|---|---|---|
| Playoff viewing | +166.9 | +334.9 |
| Other CFB displacement | −46.2 | −71.4 |
| Replacement-bowl loss | −35 | −70 |
| Title-game loss | 0 | −168.2 |
| Regular-season response | +14.9 | +14.9 |
| Net change | +100.6 | +40.2 |
The four 2025 title-game audiences imply 168.2 million hours at your assumed 3.5 hours per game, before the displacement multiplier. Inspect the historical source records →
Historical inputs: 2025 reported CFP round averages, four Power Four title-game audiences and 179 billion regular-season viewing minutes. Future audiences, displacement and regular-season responses remain assumptions. The separate National Tournament, commercial rights and subscriber contribution are outside this tool.
Inspect one event’s cash
Choose an illustrative venue archetype and case. These are constant 2026 U.S. dollars on a 2026–27 counterfactual basis. They are not named-venue settlements or a forecast for 2027.
Base illustration · Medium campus · opening round
What this case says
The event covers its modeled external costs. The operator and participating schools have no modeled negative cash in this case.
The operator’s attendance threshold fits within modeled capacity; real demand is still unverified. Funding readiness remains unknown.
What could reverse this event result?
Realized ticket demand and prices, retained shares and guarantees, travel and hosting costs can change both the event surplus and who keeps it. Actual settlement, payment dates and a funded shortfall payer are still missing. Different rounds here are not a matched campus-versus-bowl experiment.
Combined event contribution
$3,617,750external receipts less external costs
Participating schools’ cash
$2,837,750includes internal distributions and sharing
Operator’s cash
$1,025,500already included in schools’ cash
Distribution changes who has cash; it does not create external revenue. The campus operator belongs to the school account. Adding its cash again would double count it.
Follow the receipts, costs and internal transfers
| Cash reconciliation item | Amount |
|---|---|
| External receipts | $5,865,500 |
| Operator costs | −$880,000 |
| School costs | −$1,367,750 |
| Combined event contribution | $3,617,750 |
| Schools’ cash after transfers | $2,837,750 |
| Conference cash after transfers | $3,180,000 |
| Central organizer cash after transfers | −$2,400,000 |
| Operator cash | $1,025,500 |
The visiting school’s $741,800 is a subset of participating schools’ cash. It is not added again. Internal expense support and remittances cancel in the combined event account.
Attendance and break-even assumptions
Modeled paid attendance: 49,500 of an assumed 55,000 capacity, at an assumed $100 per ticket. These inputs are illustrations, not verified occupancy or realized ticket yield.
Holding the other modeled terms fixed, the operator’s break-even attendance is about 17,116. This is a conditional threshold; it does not establish real demand or a signed settlement.
Actual funding remains unresolved
- Original event settlementMissing — no verified retained event cash
- Exact payment dateUnknown — this is not a dated settlement
- Accessible reserve and starting cashUnknown — not inferred from annual revenue
- Binding shortfall payerUnidentified — no verified backstop
Sources and what they can establish
Scenario inputs were checked October 15, 2026. Public evidence supports the questions and historical reference points; it does not verify this event’s prices, retained shares, costs or funding.
- CFP distribution policy: $3.18 million conference expense support per team per round in 2026–27. A school’s share and payment date are separate questions.
- Penn State’s December 2024 parking notice: a $106 starting posted price; not an average realized yield or the parking assumption used here.
- Historical school reporting: annual reports and attributed hosting records, not a matched venue comparison.
The combined event account includes schools, event operators, conferences and the central organizer. Broadcaster production and regional visitor activity are separate. Selecting an event here does not change the whole-format funding calendar below.
Can the cash arrive before the bills?
Test the 2027 season ending January 2028, in millions of constant 2026 U.S. dollars. This whole-format ledger runs July 2027–December 2028. Every payment date and future commercial amount shown is an assumption.
Try a reserve and inspect the rights assumption
These are demonstration funds for the selected stakeholder, not documented cash balances. Defaults deliberately test a zero-cash starting point. A reserve changes access to funding; it is not revenue.
The cash reference is not an executed installment schedule. Hypothetical capacity is not a rights offer. Neither establishes actual funding, and neither automatically converts the audience tool’s output into dollars.
Schools · 18 teams · base illustration
What this case says
In this illustration, 18 teams gives Schools $12.6m less cash in the first season than 12 teams.
More cash than under 12: Conferences, Broadcasters. Less cash: Schools, Central organizer, Bowls and neutral finals. These are modeled allocations, not verified gains.
Schools still needs $61.27m beyond the demo funds at the worst point in this assumed calendar. Actual funding remains unknown.
12 teams
$0mSchools first-season change versus 12
Peak need from zero: $27.1m
18 teams
−$12.6mSchools first-season change versus 12
Peak need from zero: $61.27m
24 teams
−$1.48mSchools first-season change versus 12
Peak need from zero: $85.45m
What could change or reverse this comparison?
The largest unresolved terms are the signed rights payments, net contribution and remaining obligations of displaced titles and bowls, retained school shares, and transition costs. Payment dates and usable reserves can reverse funding readiness without changing annual cash.
The football organizations together need $36.9m of extra net receipts to match 12 in this illustration, with every other receipt and cost fixed. Including broadcasters, the change is −$8.24m. A rights payment can transfer value between these budgets without creating new combined resources.
Schools would need an additional $12.6m transfer to match its 12-team net cash, holding other entries fixed. Another payer must fund it; the payment date is still unknown.
Audience edits above do not automatically change this cash ledger. Ongoing athlete commitments and the separate National Tournament remain incomplete, so no full financial winner is established.
Inspect the selected format’s absolute cash totals
Illustrative first-season net cash
$1,142.56mrecurring net cash less transition costs
Peak need from zero cash
$61.27mlargest cumulative deficit in the assumed schedule
Need after demo funding
$61.27mremaining shortfall after your demo cash and reserve
Actual funding: unknown. Your demonstration still leaves a cash shortfall. No verified reserve, payment schedule or legally responsible shortfall payer follows from this result.
Wide bars: need from zero cash · Narrow bars: uncovered after demo funding
Inspect the monthly cash schedule
| Month | Receipts | Payments | Cumulative from zero | Uncovered after demo funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2027 | $0m | $20m | −$20m | $20m |
| Aug 2027 | $0m | $0m | −$20m | $20m |
| Sep 2027 | $0m | $0m | −$20m | $20m |
| Oct 2027 | $0m | $0m | −$20m | $20m |
| Nov 2027 | $0m | $0m | −$20m | $20m |
| Dec 2027 | $0m | $41.27m | −$61.27m | $61.27m |
| Jan 2028 | $83.91m | $0m | $22.64m | $0m |
| Feb 2028 | $0m | $59.02m | −$36.38m | $36.38m |
| Mar 2028 | $14m | $0m | −$22.38m | $22.38m |
| Apr 2028 | $54.06m | $0m | $31.68m | $0m |
| May 2028 | $0m | $0m | $31.68m | $0m |
| Jun 2028 | $1,110.88m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Jul 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Aug 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Sep 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Oct 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Nov 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
| Dec 2028 | $0m | $0m | $1,142.56m | $0m |
Some ledger receipts are signed changes in existing revenue. A negative receipt means a reduction. Reserves are not added to receipts or annual net cash.
Compare the stakeholders’ funding needs
| Stakeholder | Recurring annual net | Transition out | Peak need from zero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schools | $1,162.56m | $20m | $61.27m |
| Conferences | $412.49m | $5m | $5m |
| Central organizer | $64.96m | $15m | $40m |
| Broadcasters | −$181.54m | $10m | $191.54m |
| Bowls and neutral finals | −$0.56m | $15m | $25.93m |
Individual peak needs sum to $323.74m; they need not occur together. Perfect hypothetical pooling would need $65m, but no legal right to pool those funds is established. Internal transfers cancel; campus operating cash is already inside Schools.
What would make this a funded plan?
- Executed receipts and datesMissing — no verified expansion price or installment schedule
- Accessible cash and reservesMissing — ownership, availability and amount unverified
- Responsible shortfall payerMissing — a demo reserve is not an enforceable backstop
- Athlete and complete ecosystem obligationsIncomplete — ongoing support and the National Tournament need funding
This format ledger is separate from the individual venue examples above. Six unchanged Group of Six title games and unaffected baselines are omitted; the complete BetterCFB ecosystem remains unpriced. Full financial rankings are not established. Read the funding and source limits →
What do real athlete-support numbers establish?
Existing programs are part of the baseline. These figures document existing support. They do not price an added game or guarantee future payments.
| Source and period | Documented figure | What remains unknown |
|---|---|---|
| CFP · October 2016 | $2,500 per athlete; up to 125 families per institution for semifinals and the final. The CFP reported $1.5 million distributed in the prior season. | Historical program terms, not a current entitlement or a per-game settlement. |
| AP reporting · August 2023 | $3,000 per game for families of 125 players per team, reported for the expanded playoff’s launch. | Future eligibility, usage and actual reimbursement dates. This is reported launch-era context. |
| NCAA post-eligibility program · current summary | Up to 104 weeks; $90,000 excess limit per eligible injury, including a $25,000 mental-health sublimit; no deductible. | Policy applicability, documented claims and uncovered added commitments. Other collectible insurance applies first. |
| NCAA catastrophic program · current summary | Separate coverage triggered above a $90,000 deductible threshold. | Covered claims and timing. This threshold is different from the post-eligibility benefit limit. |
Insurance limits are not cash reserves. No policy ceiling or historical stipend is subtracted from the modeled costs or added to available cash. The proposal still needs matched coverage, incremental premiums or self-insurance, actual reimbursements and a responsible payer. Inspect the dated figures and use limits →
A real payment rule: who receives the SEC championship allowance?
The SEC’s 2026–27 published bylaws, section 31.21.3, specify $275,000 per participating school for championship expenses. For two schools, that is a $550,000 conference-to-school transfer: schools receive $550,000, the conference pays $550,000, and the combined transfer adds $0 before external costs.
Additional terms include approved transport for an official party of 150, $50 per one-way mile for band and cheer travel, and reimbursement for used guest admissions up to six per eligible athlete. Actual invoices, miles, admissions and payment dates remain unknown. The $550,000 base is not a complete event allowance or an event profit.
Section 31.21.1(e) separately specifies CFP school distributions of $3 million for a first round, $3.5 million for a quarterfinal, $3.75 million for a semifinal and $4 million for the final, plus specified travel allowances. These conference-to-school amounts must be reconciled with upstream CFP payments before combining them.
These are published nominal-dollar rules for 2026–27, not an actual settlement or a commitment for a 2027-season expansion. They do not override the calculator’s prospective assumptions. Inspect the rules, dates and remaining gaps →
Keep the evidence in view
These web tools use audience model v3 and the reconciled integrated model 2.2, with the corrected event-case export. Download the optional code, data and arithmetic checks →
The CFP’s October 15 statement says discussions with ESPN continued this week. It announces no approved expansion format or commercial price. The reported 24-team plan remains a scenario.
Read the sourced title-game and audience evidence → · Read the funding requirements →