What would eighteen change?

All twelve actual CFP entrants remain in both reconstructed fields. “Added” means absent from the actual twelve, not necessarily ranked Nos. 13–18. No subsequent bowl win or loss changes a team’s selection résumé. The 2024 baseline gave four champions byes; the 2025 baseline gave the four highest-ranked teams byes.

Protection interpretation: the canonical chapter already retains the pre-title minimum benefit, including Virginia’s 2025 berth. A final-ranking eligibility floor would put USC in its place but would change that rule. The source audit verifies the historical ranking inputs; general capacity conflicts still require an explicit policy.

Ranked victories mean distinct opponents in that season’s final selection Top 25—not their rank on game day. Loss opponents add schedule context, but these two lists are not a full strength-of-schedule measure. No ranked win does not mean no worthwhile win. Detailed archived results are linked for checking the underlying games; their model scores are not used here.

Game dates use the U.S. Eastern calendar date of kickoff, not the next-day UTC timestamp. Elapsed days are date differences, not full rest days or medically approved recovery. Actual first-postseason dates include the postponed January 2, 2025 Sugar Bowl. Counterfactual calendars have no reserved venues, broadcast agreements, or approved activity limits.

These two seasons cannot establish the ideal field size, the effect of a long layoff, or public support. No win-probability rest adjustment has been fitted. The simulator’s older illustrative replays are separate and do not implement this full pre-title protection reconstruction.

• Sporting value: use more seasons and the same selection-date evidence. Thin additions alongside stronger excluded teams would count against the chosen field and selection method.
• Access: compare who gains places, including conference concentration. These twelve additions alone do not show broader champion access; the selected champions were already in the actual fields.
• Burden: the calendar tables show paths reaching eighteen season games and double-bye layoffs of 25–27 days. Practice, recovery and travel measurements are still needed to judge those paths.
• Hosting: a positive school cash result must also have funded student services and a certified host. A profitable event with inaccessible student attendance would leave the access objection unanswered.

There is no adopted numerical pass mark. Agree on evaluation criteria before adding more seasons; do not choose a cutoff because it produces a preferred field. How the proposal distinguishes accomplishment from prediction →

Two double byes

No. 1 Oregon · No. 3 Texas

Eight single byes

No. 2 Georgia · No. 4 Penn State · No. 5 Notre Dame · No. 6 Ohio State · No. 9 Boise State · No. 10 SMU · No. 12 Arizona State · No. 16 Clemson

Five selected champions

No. 1 Oregon · No. 2 Georgia · No. 9 Boise State · No. 12 Arizona State · No. 16 Clemson

• No. 7 Tennessee hosts No. 18 Iowa State, subject to host certification.
• No. 8 Indiana hosts No. 17 BYU, subject to host certification.
• No. 11 Alabama hosts No. 15 South Carolina, subject to host certification.
• No. 13 Miami hosts No. 14 Ole Miss, subject to host certification.

The underlying ranks stay unchanged. After these four games, eight single-bye teams join the winners. Reseed for six bowl games, then add the two double-bye teams and reseed for the quarterfinals. Lock the bracket after that.

Pre-title home and berth floors fit within capacity in both reconstructions. This is not a proof that every possible future set of claims will fit.

Sorted by final committee rank, not the actual bracket seed. Use the same selection-date definition on both sides.

Scenario A: Dec 14 → Dec 21 → Jan 1 → Jan 11 → Jan 18. Scenario B: Dec 15 → Dec 22 → Jan 2 → Jan 11 → Jan 18. Order: opening → bowls → quarterfinals → semifinals → neutral title. Both are date-placement tests inside the illustrative windows, not feasible schedules certified by schools or broadcasters.

“Actual” is the first game in the real postseason, including a non-CFP bowl for an added team. The final column is the season total if eliminated immediately through reaching the final; it is not an expected number of games.

Between rounds: an opening-round finalist has intervals of 7, 11, 10, 7 days in A; 7, 11, 9, 7 in B. Bye recipients skip the earlier dates. Neither spacing proves a benefit or harm from rest.

Travel: opening-round visitors travel first; all bowl entrants make a neutral-site trip. Quarterfinal and semifinal travel depends on surviving ranks and certified hosts; both finalists travel to the neutral title. Miles, practice hours, recovery days, lodging and costs are not measured here. The no-game pause is not automatically leave from football.

Two double byes

No. 1 Indiana · No. 2 Ohio State

Eight single byes

No. 3 Georgia · No. 4 Texas Tech · No. 5 Oregon · No. 6 Ole Miss · No. 7 Texas A&M · No. 9 Alabama · No. 20 Tulane · No. 24 James Madison

Five selected champions

No. 1 Indiana · No. 3 Georgia · No. 4 Texas Tech · No. 20 Tulane · No. 24 James Madison

• No. 8 Oklahoma hosts No. 19 Virginia, subject to host certification.
• No. 10 Miami hosts No. 15 Utah, subject to host certification.
• No. 11 Notre Dame hosts No. 14 Vanderbilt, subject to host certification.
• No. 12 BYU hosts No. 13 Texas, subject to host certification.

The underlying ranks stay unchanged. After these four games, eight single-bye teams join the winners. Reseed for six bowl games, then add the two double-bye teams and reseed for the quarterfinals. Lock the bracket after that.

Pre-title home and berth floors fit within capacity in both reconstructions. This is not a proof that every possible future set of claims will fit.

Sorted by final committee rank, not the actual bracket seed. Use the same selection-date definition on both sides.

Scenario A: Dec 13 → Dec 20 → Jan 1 → Jan 10 → Jan 17. Scenario B: Dec 14 → Dec 21 → Jan 2 → Jan 11 → Jan 18. Order: opening → bowls → quarterfinals → semifinals → neutral title. Both are date-placement tests inside the illustrative windows, not feasible schedules certified by schools or broadcasters.

“Actual” is the first game in the real postseason, including a non-CFP bowl for an added team. The final column is the season total if eliminated immediately through reaching the final; it is not an expected number of games.

Between rounds: an opening-round finalist has intervals of 7, 12, 9, 7 days in A; 7, 12, 9, 7 in B. Bye recipients skip the earlier dates. Neither spacing proves a benefit or harm from rest.

Travel: opening-round visitors travel first; all bowl entrants make a neutral-site trip. Quarterfinal and semifinal travel depends on surviving ranks and certified hosts; both finalists travel to the neutral title. Miles, practice hours, recovery days, lodging and costs are not measured here. The no-game pause is not automatically leave from football.

Final exams ran December 11–13 and 15. Texas’s proposed road opener is December 13 in A or December 14 in B: one overlaps exams, the other sits between exam days. Residence halls closed December 16 and reopened January 9; classes resumed January 12. A possible January 1 or 2 home quarterfinal would precede ordinary housing return.

Required check: individual exam accommodations and travel, break housing, meals, transport and funded student seats—not an assumption that a weekend is free. Texas registrar calendar →

Fall exams ran December 8–12; winter classes began January 5. Oregon enters bowl weekend on December 20 or 21 in these scenarios. A January 1 or 2 quarterfinal would precede class return; a January 10 or 11 semifinal would be after classes resumed.

Required check: affordable student bowl travel and confirmed break services if hosting later. Class dates alone do not establish residence-hall or dining access. Oregon registrar calendar →

Autumn semester exams were scheduled December 12 and 15–18; spring classes began January 12. With a double bye, Ohio State’s first proposed game is January 1 or 2. Both that quarterfinal and a January 10 or 11 semifinal fall before spring classes resume.

Required check: students’ ability to return early, accessible transport, housing and meals. A full stadium is not evidence that enrolled students could attend. Ohio State registrar calendar →

Use the existing host-readiness gate before selection; this study does not appoint officials or create a new deadline. Each campus must name its accountable lead and fund the plan before certification.

• Athletics and student representatives: ticket allocation, price and communication.
• Student affairs, housing and dining: published break access, meal availability and a funded return option.
• Transport, accessibility and operations staff: accessible routes, visiting-fan arrangements, staffing and emergency coverage.
• Finance and the certifying authority: written funding, risk ownership, readiness decision and the existing prearranged neutral fallback when a promise cannot be met.

Actual named owners, service hours, prices, appropriations and signed approvals remain outstanding for all three campuses. These are calendar-risk screens, not completed operational plans.

The actual 2024 pairing was BYU–Colorado. This reconstruction puts BYU in the CFP; Colorado remains outside. That is one of two participants displaced by CFP expansion alone—not a forecast of lost attendance or revenue.

The actual 2025 pairing was USC–TCU. Neither makes this protected eighteen-team field. BYU’s 2025 destination was the Pop-Tarts Bowl, not the Alamo. Preserving both teams’ availability does not preserve that matchup automatically: contracts, selection rights and voluntary participation still matter. 2024 destinations · 2025 destinations.

The separate National Tournament is limited to eligible non-Power Four teams, so it would not itself remove Colorado, USC or TCU. The proposed smaller optional bowl tier could draw on eligible teams outside both tournaments, but no replacement pairing, operator acceptance or funding is secured. Read the bowl transition terms →

In 2024, the six additions occupy six participant slots across five non-CFP bowls: both Pop-Tarts teams plus one each from the Alamo, Citrus, ReliaQuest and Gator. In 2025, five additions occupy one slot each in the Pop-Tarts, Citrus, ReliaQuest, Las Vegas and Gator; Notre Dame played no postseason game.

That measures participant displacement, not canceled games. Replacement quality, available teams, payouts and local effects require a separate study. The proposal’s roughly eight-to-twelve-game optional bowl tier is a reduction, not a promise to keep every existing bowl.

School net cash = retained distributions + retained event receipts − school-borne costs. Compare the difference between campus and destination scenarios. Do not add a gross television-rights figure again if it is already included in distributions.

Alumni and donor-market access is a separate, unpriced relationship benefit. Local visitor spending belongs to the community comparison, not automatically to the school’s cash return. Explore the full economic research →

• Athletes: extra games, exam disruption, practice exposure, travel and recovery—not just home-field advantage.
• Students: affordable seats and practical access during breaks.
• Visiting fans: transport, lodging availability, total trip cost and accessible options.
• Alumni and donors: whether a destination reaches a geographically important supporter base. Record that consideration separately; it has no assumed dollar value here.
• Broadcasters: scheduling, production costs and uncertain audience; no rights-value guarantee.
• Bowl operators: contracts, changed participants, date value and costs of replacement events.
• Host communities: visitor spending, congestion, public-service costs and who receives the benefit. Community spending is not the school’s retained revenue.