Evidence review · October 8, 2026

What could change the proposal?

Eighteen teams is the starting preference, not the conclusion of these tests. The rules stay in place while the evidence is compared.

What is checked—and what is not

Mechanics: the new worked example checks eighteen distinct entrants, two double byes, eight single byes, protection for all five selected champions, one pre-title double-bye claim, and highest-versus-lowest pairing at both reseeds. It is one illustrative case, not an audit of every possible protection conflict.

Simulation: the existing paired bracket audit compares locked and reseeded paths under its stated game model. It does not validate long layoffs, athlete recovery, regular-season effort, or net financial returns.

New evidence: the historical comparison now includes two reconstructed fields, all 36 entrants’ last-game dates, two calendar placements per season, three academic-calendar screens and actual bowl destinations. No new financial, medical, legal, or stakeholder approval is claimed.

Read the historical comparison →

Does a larger field add enough?

Status: first two-season comparison published. Both reconstructions retain the actual twelve entrants and add six. The records, ranked victories, losses, benefit allocation and bowl destinations are available together. The protection interpretation and its 2025 membership consequence are explicit; sporting merit remains a judgment to review.

Comparison method and required records
  • Freeze the season’s official selection ranking, access rules, pre-title ranking, and completed results. Do not use subsequent bowl results to improve the selection-date résumé.
  • Show every entrant on both sides. Identify six additions only when the original twelve are all retained; otherwise disclose additions and removals separately.
  • For every added team, record selection-date wins and losses, best victories and their same-date opponent ranks, schedule context with its source and definition, conference, champion status, and actual postseason destination.
  • Apply champion access and pre-title benefit claims explicitly. A protected entry round does not rewrite the underlying order. Report capacity conflicts rather than silently dropping a claim.
  • Use committee order for the primary access comparison, not a retroactive current ranking formula. Any separate model-based comparison must name its version, inputs, cutoff, and selection differences.
  • Publish team rows, sources, and denominators. Compare the added group’s record and wins with the baseline’s lower entrants; inspect access concentration by conference. Do not introduce a minimum-win rule without showing whom it would wrongly exclude or include.

Reasons to reconsider eighteen: repeatedly thin résumés among the additions, little competitive benefit, access concentrated in already dominant conferences, or an unacceptable extra-game burden. Do not count a predicted upset probability as a past accomplishment.

Does skipping two rounds remain a reward?

New: compare a complete eighteen-team single-bye alternative, title scenarios, rest and trips →. The comparison proves bracket arithmetic and exposes policy departures; empirical rest effects remain unmeasured.

Status: date and game-load comparison published; rest effects unmeasured. Every entrant now has its actual last-game date, actual first postseason date and two proposed date placements. The results show elapsed days and possible season game totals, not a medically approved recovery interval or a causal rest advantage.

Rest, alternatives, and a reason to change course
  • For every entrant, show the last actual game date, whether it played a conference title game, proposed first playoff date, and elapsed calendar days. Separate title participants from nonparticipants.
  • Show every possible advancing path: intervals between games, travel legs, exam or break conflicts, and minimum/maximum total games. The Christmas no-game window is not automatically time off from practice.
  • Report practice exposure, protected recovery, travel time, and preparation as separate inputs. Unknown values stay unknown. Athlete and medical review is required; a website model cannot certify a safe interval.
  • Test no rest effect, a benefit from extra rest, and a possible cost from long layoffs as explicitly labeled sensitivity assumptions. Do not fit those effects to a few winners and call the result causal.
  • An eighteen-team, one-bye alternative first needs a complete bracket, champion-access allocation, and feasible dates. Removing a double bye from this bracket does not create a working alternative. Keep the neutral-site title in all like-for-like comparisons.

Reasons to reconsider the double bye: credible multi-season evidence of a competitive disadvantage, athlete-led review finding the recovery/practice arrangement unacceptable, or an arithmetically feasible alternative preserving the reward with less burden. Any policy change needs Alec’s explicit decision after review.

A home game does not help everyone equally

Status: three academic-calendar screens and bowl-participant comparison published. Texas, Oregon and Ohio State show different exam and break conflicts. Actual operating commitments and priced low, central and high school-finance scenarios remain outstanding; no payout or attendance forecast is claimed.

Use the three-case school cash worksheet →
School finances and winter-break access

Compare low, central, and high scenarios for cash the school actually retains: distributions and retained ticket revenue, less hosting, security, staffing, travel, insurance, lodging holds, standby, and cancellation costs. Name who keeps each revenue stream and who bears each downside. Gross attendance and local spending are not school net income.

Keep alumni and donor-market access separate from immediate cash. A destination may matter to a school’s supporters; no invented dollar value is assigned to those relationships.

Choose contrasting campuses and verify their registrar-published exams, break, and return dates. Each case must document student tickets and prices, housing, dining, transport, staffing, accessibility, funding, a responsible decision owner, readiness deadline, and fallback. Use the existing hosting standard—not a competing second set of rules.

What bowls retain, what moves, and what they may lose

The proposed CFP route is campus opening round → six premier bowls → campus quarterfinals → campus semifinals → neutral championship. The six bowl names remain; their dates, matchups, contracts, audiences, and economics are not thereby guaranteed.

The proposal reduces the remaining traditional bowl tier to roughly eight to twelve voluntary games outside both tournament fields. The separate National Tournament also draws teams away from the traditional bowl pool. Those are real tradeoffs.

The published venue comparison identifies one of the Alamo Bowl’s two 2024 participants displaced by expansion, and neither of its 2025 participants under the stated protection interpretation. Other bowls’ affected participant slots are listed too. Replacement matchups, financial effects and operator agreements remain unresolved.

Can someone explain it after one minute?

Status: not run. Zero of five unfamiliar readers tested. Do not replace this check with an automated page test or ask only whether readers like the design.

Run the five-reader check

Give each unfamiliar reader one minute on the short guide, then hide the page. Record their answers before explaining anything:

  1. How many teams qualify?
  2. What does skipping two rounds mean, and can championship protection change who receives that benefit?
  3. What happens to an upset winner’s rank? When are opponents paired again?
  4. Is this the current CFP system or a proposal?

Record correct, partial, or mistaken answers by question, including the reader’s actual misunderstanding and device. Report the count out of five, not a public-support percentage. Revise the confusing passage and retest with new readers. Five readers check usability, not representativeness or endorsement.

Download the blank reader worksheet →

What the feedback changed

These are themes from six responding conversations, a small qualitative sample. They guide revisions; they do not measure public support.

“I could not follow the central idea”

The short route now explains skipping rounds, shows three paths and walks through both reseeds. The full book stays available. Quick playoff overview →

Still to check: whether five unfamiliar readers can explain it in their own words. None has completed that test yet.

“Why do six more teams belong?”

The two historical fields show the additions’ records, victories, losses and destinations beside the lower actual entrants. The findings now make the limits of the sporting case visible. Review the mixed findings →

Still to check: more seasons, full schedule context and the added competitive value. Bracket arithmetic alone does not answer deservingness.

“Does a long layoff spoil the bye?”

Every historical entrant has an actual last-game date and two proposed calendar placements, with advancing game totals. The existing reseeding audit remains available with its limits. Inspect the dates →

Still to check: practice, travel, recovery and credible evidence about long layoffs. No rest effect has been established.

“Who keeps the money, and can students attend?”

A three-case calculator now separates school-retained cash from costs and records the source, payer and downside owner. Campus cases connect actual exam and return dates to existing hosting requirements. Compare school cash → · Check student access →

Still to check: school-specific contracts and costs, funded break services, named decision owners and signed readiness commitments.

“What happens to a valued local bowl?”

The venue map and Alamo case identify actual participant displacement and the reduced optional bowl tier. They link to the proposed transition. Read the bowl impact →

Still to check: replacement matchups, operator agreement, rights, funding and community effects.

“Why is this relevant to our readers?”

The guide now offers direct routes to one football rule, student access or a bowl case. Future contact should begin with a verified issue relevant to the recipient. Interest in home games or reseeding does not imply support for the whole proposal.

Still to check: relevance with each recipient. This website revision does not send messages or establish a successful outreach strategy.

The first historical and calendar evidence is published; independent financial, medical and reader validation is not. This release does not revise field size, champion protection, byes, venue rights, or calendar policy. See the change record →