New evidence and open tests · October 15
Eighteen supports the proposed bracket structure; it has not been demonstrated to be the best field size. The 2024 audit identifies marginal entrants, an explicitly unprotected ranking sensitivity and bowl participant displacement. Demand effects remain unestimated.
Inspect added entrants and bowl tradeoffs → · Inspect the demand-data decision →
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Quick chapter answers
Proposed rulesWho gets a bye, and how many wins are needed?
Two teams skip two rounds and need three wins for the title. Eight skip one round and need four wins. Eight start in the opening round and need five wins. Five selected champions receive at least one bye.
When does the bracket reseed?
After the Campus Opening Round and after CFP Bowl Weekend. Semifinal paths then lock. This is the proposed 18-team format, not the current 12-team CFP.
Where are the playoff games played?
The opening round, quarterfinals and semifinals use certified campuses. The six playoff bowls host the Round of 12. The championship is at a preselected neutral site.
Why expand to 18 teams?
The proposal adds access while preserving different rewards: double byes, single byes, campus hosting and road entry. Better regular-season finishes should shorten the title path—not merely change whether a team qualifies.
How it works & full rules
Use an 18-team field to create four meaningful finish bands: two double byes, eight single byes, four campus hosts, and four opening-round road teams.
Why change is needed
A larger field adds access only if the regular season still changes the path. A nearly flat bracket turns several ranking positions into the same reward and encourages arguments about qualification instead of finishing order.
Why this approach
The extra round creates access while byes and campus hosting preserve incentives throughout the ranking. Reseeding prevents an upset winner from inheriting an easier path intended for the favorite it defeated.
How it works
- The field moves 18 → 12 → 8 → 4 → 2, so Nos. 1–2 need three wins while the lowest entrants need five.
- Five selected conference champions receive access and at least one bye; every visible seed still follows the underlying résumé order.
- Matchups reseed after the opening round and Round of 12, then the semifinal paths lock.
The tradeoff
The longest route can reach eighteen games. Potential campus hosts must certify staffing, lodging, winter readiness, and student access before selection, then reconfirm as teams advance. Costs and short-notice operations still need testing; earning a game cannot substitute for safe hosting.
In practice
If No. 17 beats No. 9, it returns to No. 17 in the next redraw. The highest remaining team receives that opponent instead of letting No. 17 inherit No. 9’s preassigned path.
The complete rule set
What this part would establish
- Teams 1–2 enter in the quarterfinals and need three wins for the title.
- Eight teams enter in Round 2 and avoid the opening round.
- After the five champion byes and remaining single byes are assigned, the four highest-ranked teams still in the opening round host the four lowest-ranked teams.
- The bracket reseeds after Round 1 and Round 2 using the final underlying résumé order.
- The bracket locks when the quarterfinal matchups are created.
Detailed mechanics
Why the bracket math works
The structure works backward from an eight-team quarterfinal. Two double-bye teams wait there, so Round 2 must produce six winners. Twelve teams therefore play in Round 2: eight single-bye teams plus the four winners from the opening round. The sequence is 18 → 12 → 8 → 4 → 2 → champion.
Selection and champion access
The committee first creates a straight underlying résumé ranking. The five selected conference champions—including at least one champion from outside the Power Four—receive CFP access and at least a single bye. Remaining places and every reseeded matchup follow résumé strength without a per-conference cap.
- All five selected champions skip the opening round, including the required non-Power Four champion.
- The two double-bye positions remain fundamentally merit-based, subject to championship protection.
- Champion protection changes the entry round, never the visible underlying ranking or later reseeding order.
Round-by-round path
Round 1 places four games on campuses. The following weekend becomes a concentrated six-game CFP Bowl Weekend using an illustrative premier set of the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Peach, and Fiesta bowls. Christmas week is dark. Quarterfinals and semifinals return to campuses, and the national championship remains neutral.
Prepare to host before the matchup is known
A short turnaround should activate a prepared event, not start the planning. Under the proposed hosting standard, every potential host prepares for each campus round it could earn. Standards and decision deadlines publish before the season; readiness is certified before selection and reconfirmed as teams advance. Certification does not guarantee a home game: the bracket still determines who earns it.
- Reserve the possible dates and confirm paid staffing, security, medical cover, officials, broadcast operations, and a local emergency lead.
- Hold visiting-team lodging and transport, with written release deadlines and responsibility for standby and cancellation costs.
- Verify winter field care, safe stadium access, weather contingencies, and travel capacity; a cold-weather location alone is not grounds to move a game.
- Plan student tickets, housing, dining, and transport around that campus’s actual exam and break dates. Do not assume students or student workers are present.
- Publish the readiness decision, recheck deadlines, and objective relocation triggers. Use the prearranged neutral fallback only if the host cannot meet those standards.
Why reseeding matters
A low-ranked champion can earn a bye without receiving a falsely favorable seed. At each reseed, the highest remaining team faces the lowest remaining team. This preserves both the champion reward and the regular-season value earned by the highest-ranked survivors.
How the two redraws are built
The first redraw combines the four campus-round winners with the eight single-bye teams, restores every survivor's final underlying résumé position, and pairs highest against lowest through six games. The second redraw combines those six winners with Nos. 1 and 2, restores the same underlying order again, and creates four quarterfinals. The bracket then stops moving: those four quarterfinals feed two published semifinal paths, so a later upset does not trigger a third redraw.
- A protected champion ranked No. 16 keeps No. 16 for both redraws; the bye is the title reward, not a manufactured seed.
- If Nos. 16 and 17 both reach the first redraw, the higher available seed draws No. 17 and the next seed draws No. 16.
- If No. 18 survives the first two rounds, No. 1 receives No. 18 in the quarterfinal redraw; after that matchup is created, the semifinal path is fixed.
- Every published bracket view must show the underlying seed, the protected benefit, and the round in which protection expires.
Fund the complete playoff path
The 17-game CFP needs a full budget, not a multiplication of extra games by an assumed television price. Reconcile retained rights, tickets, sponsorship and hospitality against travel, hosting, production, access services and shared obligations. Compare the same round and matchup under campus and neutral-site alternatives. Separate expense support from advancement rewards so an earned bye does not create an unfunded obligation or pressure a team to play an unnecessary game.
Lock vs. reseed · 150,000 paired scenarios
Same survivors.
Different next game.
Each scenario runs twice with the same field, upset setting, and game rolls. One path redraws before the Round of 12 and quarterfinals; the comparison path stays locked from Selection Day.
Benefits assignedRound 1
Four winnersReseed 1
Highest vs. lowestReseed 2
Highest vs. lowestFinal Four
Path locks
No. 17 upset No. 9 and inherits that preassigned slot.
No. 17 returns to its underlying résumé position before the next matchup is drawn.
Current proposal answers
Decisions already made.
These are policy calls—not claims that outside approval or validation already exists.Do ten total byes create the right balance between access and elite-season reward?
The proposal says yes: two double byes and eight single byes make finishing position materially valuable while keeping four opening-round games. Historical testing can still change that answer before adoption, but ten is the stated starting design.
Should all four quarterfinals be campus games if winter-weather and venue standards are satisfied?
Yes. Every certified higher seed hosts its quarterfinal. A neutral fallback applies only when the campus fails objective field, safety, travel, accessibility, housing, or broadcast standards—not because a neutral operator prefers the inventory.
Safeguards
What keeps the rule honest
- Fixed capacities prevent champion guarantees from creating extra byes.
- The underlying résumé order remains public even when a protected benefit changes entry point.
- Medical, rest, travel, and maximum-game-load rules must launch with the format.
Evidence still required
What outside proof must answer
- Could a protected double bye leave a conference-title participant idle for three or four weeks, and can the calendar reduce that gap without turning an earned bye into a penalty?
- How often would protection rules displace an otherwise top-ten single-bye team in historical seasons?
- Can potential hosts demonstrate enough staffing, lodging, student access, and winter contingency capacity for every round, and who funds unused reservations?
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